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  • #4,061
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:12am Aug 11, 2010 7:12am
Stopped out at BE
  • #4,062
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:13am Aug 11, 2010 7:13am
Yes, me too, agaaaaaaaaaaaain..............
  • #4,063
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:13am Aug 11, 2010 7:13am
stopped out at be +1
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #4,064
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:16am Aug 11, 2010 7:16am
Yes ,stopped out at be
Wait at the EPIC WIN......
  • #4,065
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:23am Aug 11, 2010 7:23am
I have been watching this system for a while and being a math nut it is great. The fact that most trades are either taken for a -1 to +1 exit with the odd few going for 80-120 pips makes sticking to the rules the most important part of this trade plan. From a R:R and probabilty point of view we only need one trade to grow our accounts quickly.
Patience will pay off.
  • #4,066
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:24am Aug 11, 2010 8:24am
some pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU110810.JPG Size: 165 KB
  • #4,067
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:16am Aug 11, 2010 11:16am
patients is a virtue with this system..

with a system with a 50% strike rate you get potential 1 winner for every 1 loser

So..

In the next 1000 trades you could lose 500 straight off.. pack it in thinking its not working only for the system to get 500 wins in a row ..the odds are huge of this happening but the statistic is out there

Now with 40 losing trades to every 1 win on 1000 trades we get ..

A potential row of 960 losers then a row of 40 winners..

This is extreme but again the statistic of this happening is out there and really makes money management on this system an absolute must if youi want to be around to cash in you could easily get 40 losers or 40 break evens this month alone

Paulus
  • #4,068
  • Aug 11, 2010 12:21pm Aug 11, 2010 12:21pm
paulus,

do you trade this system?

Quoting Paulus
patients is a virtue with this system..

with a system with a 50% strike rate you get potential 1 winner for every 1 loser

So..

In the next 1000 trades you could lose 500 straight off.. pack it in thinking its not working only for the system to get 500 wins in a row ..the odds are huge of this happening but the statistic is out there

Now with 40 losing trades to every 1 win on 1000 trades we get ..

A potential row of 960 losers then a row of 40 winners..

This is extreme but again the statistic of this happening is out there and really makes...
  • #4,069
  • Aug 11, 2010 12:45pm Aug 11, 2010 12:45pm
No

I look every day keep the thread checked I like making regular pips trading mini lots or micro lots because of MM needed wont give you money to live in this system...

BUT

trade 10 main contracts min and 1win per month gives you

1 win at 140 pips x £10 per pip = £1400
39 losers at 1pips x £10 per pip = £390

Profit - £1010 per month per contract x 10 contracts = £10,100

Enough to live on.. pay the debts... and also build account

P
  • #4,070
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:34pm Aug 11, 2010 1:34pm
For those stressing out about the time it takes to get a win, again...patience. It can't be hammered into you often enough.

Pretend you're only playing with $1000. 140 pip win with the money management Tony suggests means your balance x 1.56 roughly, not counting small losses. (You are keeping those losses small and getting to BE +1 or 2 right?)

Six wins will put you at over $14,000. Don't think you can get six wins in a whole year? Go back and look at the charts this year, and find the epic wins. Go back as far as you have to in order to loose that doubt again.

Pretend you had 10k to work with.

That's right, add a 0 to the above number. It's easy. Now pretend that's your forex account. Now pretend you started this next year with that account and only got one win for the whole year, then spent the rest of the year doing whatever you wanted.

Could you live the whole year off of $80,000? I could. Easily.
  • #4,071
  • Aug 11, 2010 2:00pm Aug 11, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Leviathan
The price is the price, as a friend of mine likes to say. It's the same on every chart. 5 seconds, 5 minutes, doesn't matter. (it's just easier to see 1 pip moves on a second chart) I can't trade on a 5 second chart because MBT doesn't offer it. So, I have to use the 1 minute chart with an indicator that breaks down every pip with horizontal lines. Makes it real easy to see the price jump across the lines up or down. I've even got an EA that will straddle the open of the candle and open the trades for me, but sadly it doesn't work on an ECN broker...

just wondering instead of all that hassel why dont u simply open an oanda a/c?
  • #4,072
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:05pm Aug 11, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting Leviathan
For those stressing out about the time it takes to get a win, again...patience. It can't be hammered into you often enough.

Pretend you're only playing with $1000. 140 pip win with the money management Tony suggests means your balance x 1.56 roughly, not counting small losses. (You are keeping those losses small and getting to BE +1 or 2 right?)

Six wins will put you at over $14,000. Don't think you can get six wins in a whole year? Go back and look at the charts this year, and find the epic wins. Go back as far as you have to in order to loose...
its a great system, no question about that, tony's done brilliant work, but in your calculations have you factored in losses?

In post #3714 which is http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3714 Tony himself says a bad case senario is 5 trades are stopped out at BE and 5 for a loss. So thats 5% loss for the week, if you have 3 losing months you'd be down 60%.

i read somewhere someone saying the system can take 3 years of losses without damaging the a/c, I'm not so sure about that.

1% risk a trade may be rather high to survive even 5 losing months (which can happen)
  • #4,073
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:29pm Aug 11, 2010 3:29pm
Quote
Six wins will put you at over $14,000. Don't think you can get six wins in a whole year?
I analysed a little less than a year of E/U and counted that the price traveled 46 times for 150 pips in one direction off of the london open.
The price of course didn't always take off of the london open immediately , so you would have had several stop outs but none the less I think of 46 times 150 pips , 6 wins would have been possible in a year.
  • #4,074
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:37pm Aug 11, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting fugly
its a great system, no question about that, tony's done brilliant work, but in your calculations have you factored in losses?

In post #3714 which is http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3714 Tony himself says a bad case senario is 5 trades are stopped out at BE and 5 for a loss. So thats 5% loss for the week, if you have 3 losing months you'd be down 60%.

i read somewhere someone saying the system can take 3 years of losses without damaging the a/c, I'm not so sure about that.

1% risk a trade may be rather...
Slippage is also a major issue that needs to be factored in... both with entries and stop loss.

I still think this system has potential but I would caution against high % risk positions as sustained periods of drawdown is very likely and the account might not take it!!
  • #4,075
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:39pm Aug 11, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting alfanzereii
I analysed a little less than a year of E/U and counted that the price traveled 46 times for 150 pips in one direction off of the london open.
The price of course didn't always take off of the london open immediately , so you would have had several stop outs but none the less I think of 46 times 150 pips , 6 wins would have been possible in a year.
Did you do this manually by looking at 5 second charts?
  • #4,076
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:45pm Aug 11, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting alfanzereii
I analysed a little less than a year of E/U and counted that the price traveled 46 times for 150 pips in one direction off of the london open.
The price of course didn't always take off of the london open immediately , so you would have had several stop outs but none the less I think of 46 times 150 pips , 6 wins would have been possible in a year.
see i do agree as i've said its an outstanding system and a great effort by tony but saying it can withstand 3 years of losses without damaging the a/c and other statments like it can turn 10k to 1mil in a year is imho being rather over optimistic

lets us assume 1 winner a month on average , thats a reasonable assumption isnt it?

Also the sl is 2 pip and assume a spread of 1 pip so the total loss on a trade is 3 pips and this equates to 1% of ur a/c

so now lets assume we have 5 trades hitting the sl of 3 pips in a week, this means a loss of 5% a week on the a/c which translates into 20% loss on the a/c a month.

lets assume of the remaining 20 trades 19 are BE and we have that one 140pip winner a month.

this translates to 46% gain on the big winner.

so what we can expect is 46%-20%=26% gain a month (on average)

26% a month is an outstanding gain

This is also an ideal senario with slippage and other factors lets put it at 20% a month gain still outstanding but taking 10k to 1 mil in a year is being too optimistic.

I should add i personally havent traded the new system (i used to trade the old one the 8+pip breakout one, but had to stop coz my eyes began to hurt, this one 10 scheduled entries a week is much better) so all these calculations are hypothetical
  • #4,077
  • Edited 4:11pm Aug 11, 2010 3:57pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quote
Did you do this manually by looking at 5 second charts?
Why would I need to take a look at a 5 sec. chart. I said that of course not always the price took immediately off of the london open. There is still the possibility that price retraces back sharp and takes you out.
I had 205 samples ( a year should have roughly 250 trading days ) and 46 times the price did travel 150 pips in one direction.
And so I think you could catch six wins a year , if you target 150 pips and don't get stopped out beforehand and yes I did this manually.

Edit:

Might as well post my whole "analysis" ( how often did the price travel off of the london open to a possible TP target e.g. 10 pips. )

I repeat, retraces and zigzag behaviour are not accounted for. Just where price traveled from london open to next london open ( long or short) :

205 samples

10 pips: 205x
20 pips: 205x
30 pips: 205x
40 pips: 203x
50 pips: 198x
60 pips: 187x
70 pips: 173x
80 pips: 156x
90 pips: 135x
100 pips: 121x
110 pips: 104x
120 pips: 81x
130 pips: 64x
140 pips: 56x
150 pips: 46x
  • #4,078
  • Aug 11, 2010 4:14pm Aug 11, 2010 4:14pm
What do you mean by 205 samples? Not sure how you tracked that 46 times price sped away from the entry.

To add to the debate I am quite convinced that the system is valid. My caveat is that you shoudl exit at 100 pips and not 140

edit: you just answered me looks like

Quoting alfanzereii
Why would I need to take a look at a 5 sec. chart. I said that of course not always the price took immediately off of the london open. There is still the possibility that price retraces back sharp and takes you out.
I had 205 samples ( a year should have roughly 250 trading days ) and 46 times the price did travel 150 pips in one direction.
And so I think you could catch six wins a year , if you target 150 pips and don't get stopped out beforehand and yes I did this manually.

Edit:

Might as well post my whole "analysis" ( how often...
  • #4,079
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:35pm Aug 11, 2010 9:35pm
Quoting alfanzereii
Why would I need to take a look at a 5 sec. chart. I said that of course not always the price took immediately off of the london open. There is still the possibility that price retraces back sharp and takes you out.
I had 205 samples ( a year should have roughly 250 trading days ) and 46 times the price did travel 150 pips in one direction.
And so I think you could catch six wins a year , if you target 150 pips and don't get stopped out beforehand and yes I did this manually.

Edit:

Might as well post my whole "analysis" ( how often...
This is good data.
Pips time Total
10 205 2050
20 205 4100
30 205 6150
40 203 8120
50 198 9900
60 187 11220
70 173 12110
80 156 12480
90 135 12150
100 121 12100
110 104 11440
120 81 9720
130 64 8320
140 56 7840
150 46 6900


From your data, 80 pips seems to be the optimum take profit. It occur 76%(156/205) of the time so for one week, I should get at least one win(3 of the 4 successful trade get stop out).
At least you are happy 75% of the year, rather than just 25% of the year if you wait for 140 pip?

worst case cost per week= 3pips x 5 trade=15pip
Winning= 80-15=65 pips
  • #4,080
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:48pm Aug 11, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting Tony112
man honestly, I'm back here from sickness, and I this post made me laugh so much I almost pissed in my pants honesty, i was laughing so hard i freaking woke up the whole family , almost for 2 minutes non-stop

lord, how do you come up with things like that man damn!@

Haha.. didn't realise it till you post. Future, nice answer..

poage180 really exist?
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