Odds are with a 4hr KISS

When to Trade and When Not To trade...you have to learn this! Also, Price Action is King as many have mentioned before. You have to understand how price moves along with chart patterns to aid in your decision making.

Below is an Example of the Eur/Jpy the past couple of weeks. If you can be patient, avoid the chop slop rangy markets...and just take the good setups, you'll come out ahead! Enjoy.

Here are a couple EU trades from late July...there are more on the chart, but I didn't have room to point the all out. I just wanted to pick a few to give everyone a better understanding!

Hi Tw0eleven,

If the last two posts showed your new strategy, i believe it's based on a 21 MA, MACD, PA and candlesticks.
Could you send me the details of entry, exits, SL and TPs?
The only thing that it's a bit odd is the fact that you missed some big moves with the trend and opted for small reversals. Or the last examples are not a good sample of the strategy?

Thanks.

Hi Jackdaniel,

For Entries: refer to the notes on the charts above...that's what you pretty much look for in the setup and then enter when price pulls back towards the 21ma...usually within 10pips is close enough(it's up to you if you want to wait for actually 21 touches or enter 15pips away...it's a flexible plan based on your own preferences).

Exits: Either 1) your stoploss is hit, 2) Your profit limit is hit or 3) Price closes on the opposite side of the 21ma from which you entered...so you take a smaller loss than the hard stoploss.

Stoploss: Initially set a 75pip stoploss( if you are comfortable with it or trading in a more volatile market...you could use up to 100pip stoploss).

TargetPrice: For pairs that have larger daily ranges like GU, GJ, EJ use a 75pip target price(could use 100pips if you think it will go that far). For smaller range pairs like EU, AU, UCad use a 50pip target price.


As for your last comment about missing the big moves...you have to decide what type of trader you want to be??? Do you want to be a trader who takes a few pips out of the market each week? Or do you want to be a trader who looks for the Home Run moves of 1000pips??? For me, personally, I could live on 100pips a week trading so I only look for 75-100pips on my trades...1 or 2 good trades a week and I'm happy. But another trade may prefer to get into a trade and hold that trade open for 500pips or more!!! The choice is yours my friend.


p.s. another reason I look for only about 100pips a week is that the Big Huge Moves don't happen that often...maybe a couple times a year right? It took GU from January to May to go from 1.6400 area down to 1.4200 area. And then from those May Lows until August to reach 1.6000 area. About 2000pips for each move...and if you take the 5 months it took the first move down and divide that into the 2000pips(if you get in at the top and out at the bottom) then that's 400pips a month profit right? Or 100pips a week?

Tw0eleven,

Thanks for that. I'll have a play during the weekend and see if i can get the hang of it.

My first trade using the new version ... it's demo.

Yeah, it's a pretty simple method once you get use to what you're looking for...I will be posting some examples from this week below. Let me know if you have any more questions!

That's Great man...you picked a Good one!!! I'm about to post a screenshot of that trade myself with some notes on it. Keep up the good work!

Last week didn't have too many setups, but this week...WOW, sometimes when it rains it pours right? If you happened to take all the signals this week, it would basically meet your pip goal for the month(assuming you are just aiming for 100pips or less a week)!!!

pretty productive week and it's only Wed!

I think the above examples help reinforce that fact that you don't have to be in the market every week...there will be periods of no signals and then some weeks where there are LOTS of signals. In the end, it all averages out. Just focus on patience and waiting for the proper entries and you can be successful with this method(or pretty much any method you like)!

Hey, I just spotted a couple things on your chart that I wanted to comment on. First, your MACD looked a bit different than mine...I see you have the same settings I do, but your macd histogram is above the zero line while mine is below...not sure why. But the slope is down which is what you are lookin for to get in if you get a short signal!

Second, are you familiar with divergence??? You had a great example of it and I copied your chart and added it in there(the thicker yellow lines). If you're not too familiar with it, or for those of you reading this thread and not too familiar with it, I really like trades when you get a divergence signal. Basically, all it is is when price is still making higher highs(the thick yellow line above the candles)....and when the macd histogram is making lower highs(thick yellow line above macd)...that is Divergence. Price going one way and macd the other way. It signals that the upmove in price is losing it's momentum!

*this also works for long setups...but in that case, price will be making lower lows while macd is making higher lows*

Anyone catch one of these two trades...or both???

Since neither Price Action nor MACD signaled any long trades...why not take the short???

Hello 211 --

First, thanks for your ongoing efforts with this forum!

Second, I plan to join you this week. I have been periodically using an even simpler h4 system. Yours strikes me as more dependable.

I won't burden you with a load of ?s, but I am curious if you particularly follow certain pairs or watch a basket of them?

The explanation looks clear to me. Now just to wait out a solid entry.

I'll try to check in with some of my decisions. Hopefully, I can wait out quality entries.

Best, Forest

Hi Forest,

Thanks for joining the thread. Hope you do well here. To answer your questions...I do have 8 pairs that I watch on one screen...AU, GU, EU, EG, UCad, GJ, EJ, UJ. However, I really only trade GU, EU, EJ...occaisonally the AU, Ucad or UJ. But I stay away from the GJ...the swings are a little more than I like to see. The reason I watch all those pairs is that I like to correlate them and see if there is one currency that is weaker/stronger than the others. Example....if AU, GU, EU are all going up and Ucad is going down it's a pretty safe bet the the Dollar is weak. Another example is if the EU, EG, EJ are going up while GU and GJ are staying the same or going down...it's pretty safe bet that there is Euro strength in the market.

Hope that helps and if you have any more questions...feel free to ask!

Happy Trading!

I should apologize. I knew from your post 1 that you followed a variety of pairs. I really was interested in what had truly proven itself over time, AND YOU ANSWERED THIS: GU, EU, EJ.

So, thank you even if I was not especially articulate.

I will start by concentrating on watching the Big 3 you listed.

Forest

Are you using an EMA 21 or WMA 21? Not a ton of difference, but some.

Forest

Are you using an EMA 21 or WMA 21? Not a ton of difference, but some.

Wow, these are clean looking charts. Nice.

Forest

Actually, after a few minor changes from the original method...I know use a 20 lwma. There isn't much difference between the 20 and 21, but I figured I'd use the 20 since there are 20 trading days in the month. Some prefer the 21 since 21 is a fib number. But there really isn't much difference with either one.