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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #71,181
  • Aug 10, 2010 6:39pm Aug 10, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting unlv_tj
With that said, I don't know anyone who trades for a living either. I believe it is possible, but it takes a rare combination of a large trading account (lots of money), years of hard work, years of self pyschological analysis, and the will to stay with it all.
I know multiple people who trade for a living, and do it very well - and aside from the 'hard work' part, none of them match those criteria.

Maybe it is selection bias, maybe not.

The things you listed are what most amateur traders think they need to suceed - a big account, book psychology, perserverence, experience. If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that it is because those are things that a 'regular' person can easily address... and they are all completely subjective. So you always have an excuse for why you arent making money.

Hey look, I did my own psychoanalysis!


Quoting Adilius07
Well in about 3 years I have lost two accounts. Options and Futures Accounts. 4K and 3K. And I consider this EDUCATION.
That isnt an education. That's common sense.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #71,182
  • Aug 10, 2010 6:46pm Aug 10, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting jarroo
Nice analysis sChaos . . . and nice Charts.

I just wanted to mention that the previous bars Highs in purple played a big role as well in this trade. Once Price started to respected those highs (1.5966) it became strong proven Resistance (purple Highs).

Looks like Price is heading for the 1.5700.

Nice trades Chaos.

Not surprise where Price reacted . . .right sChaos?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #71,183
  • Aug 10, 2010 7:08pm Aug 10, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting Swami S
Hi Adilius, if you are serious about your success you could do nothing better than join the pf IMHO. It is a place to feel at home in this scam infested business. Somehow Jim has managed to create a genuine learning and supportive enviroment that it is hard to find in any field. If you are like me at all what you need is less of what you know, although you will never need to look far again in the PF to find anything you need, but more support for what you already do. Success a spiritual and emotional endevour, wealth and prosperity are nothing without...
Nicely said Si . .well done sir.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #71,184
  • Aug 10, 2010 7:58pm Aug 10, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting joelcf
I know multiple people who trade for a living, and do it very well - and aside from the 'hard work' part, none of them match those criteria.

Maybe it is selection bias, maybe not.

The things you listed are what most amateur traders think they need to suceed - a big account, book psychology, perserverence, experience. If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that it is because those are things that a 'regular' person can easily address... and they are all completely subjective. So you always have an excuse for why you arent making money....
I don't see how someone can trade for a living with less than $200,000. If you can make 20% a year, that is $40,000 before taxes, that really isn't a large income.

Though $200,000 may not be a "large" account either, it certainly would be a large account to me. Obviously a million would do it, but hell, if you have a million dollars, you don't have to trade to live off of it, though it would be far more awesome if you could.

If trading for a living doesn't require...

- Large Account
- book pyschology
- perserverance
- experience

Then I would LOVE to know WHAT it does take. Please fill me in, because I need to know where I am going wrong.
  • #71,185
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:17pm Aug 10, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting jarroo
Whoooa . .hold on there tiger . .lol Let's keep it simple here Pb.

The chart(s) we did in May was an exercise in plotting PPZ levels. Now here in Aug. we see that the PPZ levels we plotted on the Weekly Usd/Mxn are still acting like they always do. . . .as PPZ levels.

The Weekly BUOB off the PPZ level (12.45ish) worked out nicely, Yes?. The current PB is a bit small but let's see how she works out.

______________________

My internet connection is still freaking out . on off on off off off on off f**k. . had the cable guy "fix it" but...

Oh, I get it now.

Sorry, for some reason I thought you were referring to the the topic that we were talking about, that being S&R and PPZ actually being between these areas. I see your post was not actually related to that topic. I was so involved with that subject, I was oblivious to the point.


I see how we can leave these PPZ on our charts for months and if they are properly drawn they will still be valid.

Thanks Jarroo

Hope you get your more steam for your Internet connection.
  • #71,186
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:20pm Aug 10, 2010 8:20pm
Interesting bar on GU, not a PB or for that matter a PA bar at all.

I feel the low of this bar may have some importance though, as it is within 1 pip of the previous low at 1.5707 & 1.5706.

Maybe it will be a hard break short?
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  • #71,187
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:28pm Aug 10, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I trade through Oanda and have a $5,000 account.

The largest trade I have made had a stop loss of $10 and that was almost 3 years ago. I have not traded with a stop loss larger than $3 in well over 2 years. Add to it, Oanda daily pays interest.

So in about 3 years with Oanda, I now have an account of $5,056 or so. So I guess I have made .33%, LOL, which is nothing compared to what I can make by just dollar cost averaging into my Edward Jones and JP Morgan accounts (about 8% per year).

.
Hey unlv,
Allow me to barge in here a bit.
$3 risk per trade that works out to be 3/5000 = 0.06% risk. With this risk you made 0.37%/yr. If you were to (just) increase your risk to 1% which according to most is a reasonable figure, your profit would be 17X what you are getting now ie 6.3%. Not too bad I think.

I think sticking with just 0.06% risk for 2 long years takes a lot of discipline and perseverance. You have my admiration.
I don't think I can last that long without seeing more profit from this game

Just my thougths............

CY
  • #71,188
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:35pm Aug 10, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting ertorque
Hey unlv,
Allow me to barge in here a bit.
$3 risk per trade that works out to be 3/5000 = 0.06% risk. With this risk you made 0.37%/yr. If you were to (just) increase your risk to 1% which according to most is a reasonable figure, your profit would be 17X what you are getting now ie 6.3%. Not too bad I think.

I think sticking with just 0.06% risk for 2 long years takes a lot of discipline and perseverance. You have my admiration.
I don't think I can last that long without seeing more profit from this game

Just my thougths............

CY...
Hey thanks a lot. I really want to know and prove to myself that I can do this before I start upping the ante. This year has been successful, but not by enough for me to go all in. I need to learn better stop loss placement, or better R:R. I have won like 14 out of 17 trades for 2010, but I am barely up on the year.

I still would love to know what Joel knows it takes to make a professional trader. From what I have read and studied in 3+ years, it does take a large account (James16 even says this is a huge benefit and almost mandatory), experience (isn't that what we are told here, that it just takes time and years of learning), pyschology (every trading book I have read says pyschology in the markets is huge).

I want to know if it isn't these things, what it is that seperates a full time trader from those of us trying to make it.
  • #71,189
  • Edited 9:10pm Aug 10, 2010 8:45pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I don't see how someone can trade for a living with less than $200,000. If you can make 20% a year, that is $40,000 before taxes, that really isn't a large income.
Would you bother trading for a living to make 20% a year? My equity portfolio makes that, and I look at it *maybe* once a week, if I'm not being lazy.

Your problem isnt account size. It is position sizing and compounding frequency.

You wanna take 1 trade a month on the daily chart for 2% and make your 20%pa, that's fine - but I dont see how you are 'trading for a living'. That's like me claiming I am a pro golfer because I play every second weekend and the loser picks up the bar tab.

And just to add some numbers - the spread of accounts from people I know who actually trade for a living is from $40k to at least a million (but no one really knows, since he is a secretive bastard who doesnt even tell his wife).

If I were a gambling man - which I definitely am - I would wager that not only do most people not even know if they are profitable, but they wouldnt even know how to determine whether they are or arent.

Quoting unlv_tj
If trading for a living doesn't require...
- Large Account
- book pyschology
- perserverance
- experience

Then I would LOVE to know WHAT it does take. Please fill me in, because I need to know where I am going wrong.
A consistently profitable methodology which gives an adequate volume of entry signals, and an effective position sizing scheme for your method. That's it.

Preferably, you would rather your method be low(er) variance, since that is going to affect your position sizing and hence your returns, but beggars/choosers/etc.

The other stuff has its place, sure - but people put so much emphasis on the icing and very little on the cake.

Is it important to not get mad and take dumb trades? Or to hold a losing trade into your stop when you could have cut it early? Definitely. But let's face it, that's one trade. Unless you are doing it over and over and over again, changing that one thing isnt going to suddenly rocket you to profitability.

Other than that? They are all exceptionally intelligent, very analytical and take more trades in a week than most people here do in a year. At least one of those can be achieved by anyone.

Quoting Pinbar
Hope you get your more steam for your Internet connection.
Pretty sure at this point in time we should all chip in and buy Jaroo (and Mike) dedicated connections
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #71,190
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:13pm Aug 10, 2010 9:13pm
"Would you bother trading for a living to make 20% a year? My equity portfolio makes that, and I look at it *maybe* once a week, if I'm not being lazy. "

The rest of your post makes perfect sense Joel, and thank you. That is one angle not discussed here because it is pretty advaced.

As for the quote above, my honest goal is to get to 20% a year, that is it. I think it is attainable. I can easily get by on $40,000 a year in my home town, and I can get a $200,000 account soon enough.

I don't know if I will ever do better than this, but 20% a year would be remarkable to me. After 10 years of being in the markets (Edward Jones, JP Morgan) and owning real estate, I am probably averageing 5% a year at best (thanks to the economic crash we are experiencing). 20% would be great to me.
  • #71,191
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:16pm Aug 10, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting joelcf


Pretty sure at this point in time we should all chip in and buy Jaroo (and Mike) dedicated connections

I hear you Joel.

Like this?


Jarroo, fasten that seat belt.
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  • #71,192
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:39pm Aug 10, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting jarroo
Not surprise where Price reacted . . .
Yes Sir.
i would've wanted to wait for & possibly trade until & during the FOMC Announcement (8hrs ago) but somebody else was using the PC.
Let's see what price has in store for us today.
  • #71,193
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:59pm Aug 10, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting unlv_tj
That is one angle not discussed here because it is pretty advaced.
Absolutely.

The rules set out (ie, 2% or less) are to stop newbies losing their account due to -EV trading and variability ('luck' - or, more accurately, the chance that a bad series of trades will bankrupt an otherwise profitable approach). The former diminishes with time/experience/demo trading, but not many people look at the latter.

Maybe it is my biases showing through, but I think the position sizing part is just as important as the approach. It's just alot harder to work with and understand.

Quoting unlv_tj
As for the quote above, my honest goal is to get to 20% a year, that is it. I think it is attainable. I can easily get by on $40,000 a year in my home town, and I can get a $200,000 account soon enough.
I think this kind of trading is an excellent way to attain that. It's a nice portfolio enhancer and a bit of diversification.

With the win rate you posted before, it sounds like you are pretty much there with the trading approach.

Quoting unlv_tj
I don't know if I will ever do better than this, but 20% a year would be remarkable to me. After 10 years of being in the markets (Edward Jones, JP Morgan) and owning real estate, I am probably averageing 5% a year at best
What kind of approach are you taking with this part of your funds? Something like an index fund?
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #71,194
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:02pm Aug 10, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I don't see how someone can trade for a living with less than $200,000. If you can make 20% a year, that is $40,000 before taxes, that really isn't a large income.....
For one, account size traded & concept of 'large'/'small' account are of subjective & geographic bias.
i definitely cant prove it right now, but if u live were i live, where living expenses are relatively very low, i believe u can trade for a living with $500 - $10k or max $50k - $100k. (of course, personal circumstance/s play/s a role)
trading for a living off of $500 - $10k... u could say is VERY challenging &/or is mainly for experienced/successful traders. that is the caveat.

i know, this sounds hyperidiculous. most likely some people cringe as they read this (i cringe when i see big figures like $100k or $200k too -- it goes both ways). but that's how it is if u live here (& probably in some areas in this region)

just my views...
  • #71,195
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:05pm Aug 10, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting supremeChaos
i believe u can trade for a living with $500
Five hundred bucks?!
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #71,196
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:09pm Aug 10, 2010 10:09pm
Quoting Adilius07
No of course I am not offended. And I like to talk about this too, this is to boost my motivation. I need to hear positive things, positive experience!!!

This is not that I not believe in myself and this past negative experience weights on me....no!... this is more that this experience serves as a prove to those friends/family members/colleauge (you had them too around you Im sure) who say this is just a casino.... That's it. Period. The only way to win is to own a Casino - so own a brokerage and execute orders....(those in the brokerage say...
Hey man seems to me your breaking the number 2 rule. Your letting your emotions take over. Stop It. AT least for a little while and see how it works for you. Otherwise your going to give yourself an ulcer to boot.

And remeber the people who are remebered the most are those who started out with nothing and made a name for themselves. Thats your advantage. It would suck worse if you lost your fortune doing this.
  • #71,197
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:17pm Aug 10, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting Pinbar
I hear you Joel.
Like this?
Jarroo, fasten that seat belt.

that's ok, i'll even chip in, IF they can trade like that --- with just one hand on the keyboard



Quoting joelcf
....
Your problem isnt account size. It is position sizing and compounding frequency.
....
Quoting joelcf
Absolutely.
The rules set out (ie, 2% or less) are to stop newbies losing their account due to -EV trading and variability ('luck' - or, more accurately, the chance that a bad series of trades will bankrupt an otherwise profitable approach). The former diminishes with time/experience/demo trading, but not many people look at the latter.
Maybe it is my biases showing through, but I think the position sizing part is just as important as the approach. It's just alot harder to work with and understand.....
Awesome points.

Quote
...people I know who actually trade for a living is from $40k...
thanks Joel.
i feel sane & less hyperidiculous after reading this
  • #71,198
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:20pm Aug 10, 2010 10:20pm
Hi all, thought I might share this with the group: my wife just came home from work for lunch and suggested that I get a job!
WTF..... Im three parts throught my first beer now-needed something to settle my nerves.
Have you any comments?

chow
  • #71,199
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:23pm Aug 10, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting chowur
Hi all, thought I might share this with the group: my wife just came home from work for lunch and suggested that I get a job!
WTF..... Im three parts throught my first beer now-needed something to settle my nerves.
Have you any comments?

chow
Obviously, you should question her and find out why she took so long to get home to prepare your lunch.

Sandwiches dont make themselves, you know.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #71,200
  • Aug 10, 2010 10:25pm Aug 10, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting Adilius07
Well in about 3 years I have lost two accounts. Options and Futures Accounts. 4K and 3K. And I consider this EDUCATION. So you were lucky to get this education for FREE

I also you know demotraded for half a year, had some kind of concistency as I thought... opend one account - blowed it... then demotraded for another 6 months then another account blown... and here I am again demoing lol
3 years ago I spent over $10,000 on an options course. $10,000 on credit card. Blew my 1st $2000 in 3 months. Added another $500. Blew that. Switch to Forex Nov 2008. Demoed various "systems" even EAs. Found this site in March. Followed instuctions and demoed for at least 3 months. I went for four months because I was just a little over break even. Placed my 1st live trade begining of July. 4 out of 4 trades I've placed since are winner, 1 break even. I'm only up $30 dollars started with a small account and decided to only risk a max of 1% for the 1st 6 month.

My point: Your not alone. According to my numbers you might be ahead LOL. and I'm 39. I learned along time ago to stop looking for the finish line and enjoy the race. Who gives a s*** what others think. You know whats right for you and yours and I applaud you for going against the herd of nay sayers.
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