My personal opinion is that we see a bit lower around 134.8/135 before back up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #2,406
- Aug 6, 2010 9:51pm Aug 6, 2010 9:51pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2009 | 5,030 Posts
I was just looking at A/U on H4 and came to a bearish conclusion as well.
1. Enter at red spot (agressive)
2. Enter at break of wedge LTL (conservative)
- #2,407
- Aug 7, 2010 12:45am Aug 7, 2010 12:45am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2009 | 5,030 Posts
Every time I see this question, I’m afraid that my answer might be misinterpreted.
Managing a SL is a very complex task if you use a predetermined amount of pips per trade. Many traders use a fixed SL for every TF (time frame) arguing that they won’t increase their risk. A Big TF trade is usually seen as one that involves a wider SL and therefore a greater risk.
While the risk percentage should be the same (I prefer 0.5% to 2%) the amount of pips used for a SL should be adjustable to every trade. It is very important to note that every trade is different and presents singular conditions. Even if your account is considerably small, one can still trade Daily, Weekly or even Monthly TF’s risking the same percentage as you do in a M15 or M30 TF’s. It is also important to work with a very good RRR (risk to reward ratio); example: If you have entered in a trade based on a daily TF and you have determined that the proper SL might be 80 pips, your target should be at least twice as big, in this case 160 pips (I usually look for 4:1 and better).
I’m not going to discuss where the SL should be placed, instead the MM (money management) behind it. For the following examples let’s pretend that my account is $10,000 and my maximum risk is 1% per trade. (Following charts are for illustration purpose only)
1. In this case I have determined that placing the SL just below Support will do the job, so I’m giving it 15 pips tolerance.
2. Let’s say the TL broke and I have entered at the retest. I used the lowest point of the previous range to determine my SL which is 45 pips away, and 61% fib as my target. Since I see that just below 61% fib is the top of a previous resistance I decide to lower the target to that level.
3. Think that this is the most perfect flag and it has already broke the UTL and I have entered at the retest. I’m using E point as my SL, and the flag technical Target as my objective.
4. Let’s assume that this is a perfect Gartley pattern in confluence with a 38% Fib, so the trade is taken and X point is used as SL and C point as target.
I know some brokers/platforms use a preset lot size, if this is your case, I’d recommend looking for one that gives you the option to adjust this value.
My 2 Cents
Coke.
Managing a SL is a very complex task if you use a predetermined amount of pips per trade. Many traders use a fixed SL for every TF (time frame) arguing that they won’t increase their risk. A Big TF trade is usually seen as one that involves a wider SL and therefore a greater risk.
While the risk percentage should be the same (I prefer 0.5% to 2%) the amount of pips used for a SL should be adjustable to every trade. It is very important to note that every trade is different and presents singular conditions. Even if your account is considerably small, one can still trade Daily, Weekly or even Monthly TF’s risking the same percentage as you do in a M15 or M30 TF’s. It is also important to work with a very good RRR (risk to reward ratio); example: If you have entered in a trade based on a daily TF and you have determined that the proper SL might be 80 pips, your target should be at least twice as big, in this case 160 pips (I usually look for 4:1 and better).
I’m not going to discuss where the SL should be placed, instead the MM (money management) behind it. For the following examples let’s pretend that my account is $10,000 and my maximum risk is 1% per trade. (Following charts are for illustration purpose only)
1. In this case I have determined that placing the SL just below Support will do the job, so I’m giving it 15 pips tolerance.
2. Let’s say the TL broke and I have entered at the retest. I used the lowest point of the previous range to determine my SL which is 45 pips away, and 61% fib as my target. Since I see that just below 61% fib is the top of a previous resistance I decide to lower the target to that level.
3. Think that this is the most perfect flag and it has already broke the UTL and I have entered at the retest. I’m using E point as my SL, and the flag technical Target as my objective.
4. Let’s assume that this is a perfect Gartley pattern in confluence with a 38% Fib, so the trade is taken and X point is used as SL and C point as target.
I know some brokers/platforms use a preset lot size, if this is your case, I’d recommend looking for one that gives you the option to adjust this value.
My 2 Cents
Coke.
- #2,408
- Aug 7, 2010 7:33am Aug 7, 2010 7:33am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2009 | 5,030 Posts
Last coke do you have a geppy chart to share by any chance?
- #2,409
- Aug 7, 2010 7:42am Aug 7, 2010 7:42am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #2,411
- Aug 7, 2010 8:02am Aug 7, 2010 8:02am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: temporarily correct | 1,757 Posts
- #2,412
- Edited 8:27am Aug 7, 2010 8:11am | Edited 8:27am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #2,414
- Aug 7, 2010 8:23am Aug 7, 2010 8:23am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: temporarily correct | 1,757 Posts
- #2,417
- Aug 7, 2010 11:02am Aug 7, 2010 11:02am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: ...everything will be fine... | 2,834 Posts
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
- #2,418
- Aug 7, 2010 11:55am Aug 7, 2010 11:55am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2009 | 5,030 Posts
hello TLC !
first of all, i'd like to thank you for all the knowledge you are kindly sharing with us
great stuff
would you also have a look at this screen ? its dailu a/u
In this case B and C points are inside the acceptable range but they are far from perfect. Another issue that I'd like to point out is the wide range that a harmonic indicator would give you as an entry point, in this case around 170 pips. I have drawn the Ideal shape using the triangles.
- #2,419
- Aug 7, 2010 11:57am Aug 7, 2010 11:57am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts
- #2,420
- Aug 7, 2010 12:16pm Aug 7, 2010 12:16pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2009 | 5,751 Posts
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!