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AUD/USD

  • #22,541
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:09pm Aug 4, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Phonetic
I had these orders in last time before we fell last month. I took them out when I slept...the fall started, and didn't stop. Looking for that to happen again, but now my orders will stay when I sleep...
Hahahaha sweet dude.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,542
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:10pm Aug 4, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting Phonetic
I had these orders in last time before we fell last month. I took them out when I slept...the fall started, and didn't stop. Looking for that to happen again, but now my orders will stay when I sleep...
Although I would advise you to put in only 300 pips or so worth of downside orders a night. If we see something like a May 6th and then spike up.... that would suck.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,543
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:57pm Aug 4, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Although I would advise you to put in only 300 pips or so worth of downside orders a night. If we see something like a May 6th and then spike up.... that would suck.
I never thought of that, thank you for that advice
  • #22,544
  • Aug 4, 2010 7:39pm Aug 4, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting Phonetic
I never thought of that, thank you for that advice
Yea actually to be safer, maybe 200 pips would be better.

I have some shorts running from the .89-.90 region. I'll start adding at .88 and every 150 pips from there, trailing stops by 150 pips so I won't be adding to risk. I'm looking for drop to .75-.77 region, but will start unloading a little at .83 and .81.

Initially when we break out of the wedge, we'll find psychological support at .90 region and 100 DMA and 200 day MA's will provide some support.

Main event risk I see is FOMC next week. However, market seems to be pricing in QE with the Federal Reserve using its profits from previous QE to engage in more QE. If the Federal Reserve doesn't do this, AUDUSD will crash. However, if the Federal Reserve engages in even more QE, this thing can really shoot up. I would advise you to be in the day we have FOMC.

Oh yes, there is also NFP. You should be in for that too, A move above the H4 wedge could see us testing .94 very easily. Although I doubt we will see .94 or even .93.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,545
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:29pm Aug 4, 2010 8:29pm
we waiting the pair at 06-08 6:00 GMT
to go sell from the shown zone that refer to the intersection of time and price
so we will wait and see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,546
  • Edited 8:39pm Aug 4, 2010 8:32pm | Edited 8:39pm
I don't see Aussie crashing into the 7000s. Looking for a test of 9300/ 9400 first.

US economy may be doing better than before, yet nowhere near all the "news talk" was hyping it up to be. Poor figures after poor figures are telling the tale

NFP is this Friday and should be interesting.

Not expecting too much out of the jobs number. US Unemployment compensation was just extended again.

If we correct and break the current daily LTL on positive US news streak I will look for shorts, otherwise buying dips has been paying off.

Quoting rahulkghosh
Yea actually to be safer, maybe 200 pips would be better.

I have some shorts running from the .89-.90 region. I'll start adding at .88 and every 150 pips from there, trailing stops by 150 pips so I won't be adding to risk. I'm looking for drop to .75-.77 region, but will start unloading a little at .83 and .81.

Initially when we break out of the wedge, we'll find psychological support at .90 region and 100 DMA and 200 day MA's will provide some support.

Main event risk I see is FOMC next week. However, market seems to be pricing in QE...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,547
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:28pm Aug 4, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting osama87
we waiting the pair at 06-08 6:00 GMT
to go sell from the shown zone that refer to the intersection of time and price
so we will wait and see
Trade the channel until it breaks out, then wait for price to go back to the channel. If you trade the edges of the channel, your risk goes way down, and the chances of catching on for the ride increases. Patience is what it comes down too, that's why simple EA's is what I use. I place my trades myseld and let a trade manager EA do the rest. That way I'm not scared into taking a profit or moving a stop.

Tipster
Tipster Trendlines - Trade from the chart
  • #22,548
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:18am Aug 5, 2010 1:18am
Quoting XTrade
I don't see Aussie crashing into the 7000s. Looking for a test of 9300/ 9400 first.

US economy may be doing better than before, yet nowhere near all the "news talk" was hyping it up to be. Poor figures after poor figures are telling the tale

NFP is this Friday and should be interesting.

Not expecting too much out of the jobs number. US Unemployment compensation was just extended again.

If we correct and break the current daily LTL on positive US news streak I will look for shorts, otherwise buying dips has been paying off.
Well, in the last month we've seen the dollar weaken on bad US data. I expect that trend as things get much worse in the US. I'm looking for DOW 8500 by year end, and test of 5000 within a few years. But ya, looking back on this, I regret not waiting for a break of the LTL before shorting. That would have been much safer and I'd get a much better position. Oh well.

This Friday's NFP is going to be very critical for where the dollar goes and how exactly it will perform relative to equities. 80 on DXY, 1.33 on eurodollar are very critical levels.

I'm looking for an initial drop to the mid 70's. But my longer-term outlook is that we're headed to 50's and far below on aussie. A test of 93 right now certainly seems on cards.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,549
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:09am Aug 5, 2010 3:09am
Quoting domino
perhaps its the 7% debt to gdp .. the shear stability the ability for it to fight through economic cycles without printing free money at .25% creating huge boom and bust cycles using AET.. maybe its the fact that its a commodities based island whose dirt is red with all the iron mixed in with it.. and they cant load ships from china fast enough with the commodities and the rising prices due to huge demand = more revenues meaning stronger currencies... dunno tho its a mystery.
Perhaps, but I'm seeing the same nonsense that occured in the US just a few years ago. The Australians are too naive or too proud or too ignorant to believe it, but there is a housing bubble here worse than the US one, and the consumer debt ratio here is now higher than in the US. I have to also disagree with the 7% ratio. Australia is also running a deficit and is sure to re-elect a communist regime that has set the country back quite far in only three years in power. Inflation here is far higher than anyone probably expects. You might want to factor in also that China has pissed away a lot of reserves a lot quicker than anticipated.
  • #22,550
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:15am Aug 5, 2010 3:15am
Awesome to hear a post from someone in Australia. These are the types of things that make our little community here great. I could go on about all the problems in the US!!!

So with all those factors are you looking deflationary/ Money hoarding / = positive or "higher AUD?
or.

Thanks.
X
Quoting TheTopBloke
Perhaps, but I'm seeing the same nonsense that occured in the US just a few years ago. The Australians are too naive or too proud or too ignorant to believe it, but there is a housing bubble here worse than the US one, and the consumer debt ratio here is now higher than in the US. I have to also disagree with the 7% ratio. Australia is also running a deficit and is sure to re-elect a communist regime that has set the country back quite far in only three years in power. Inflation here is far higher than anyone probably expects. You might want to...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,551
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:18am Aug 5, 2010 3:18am
Another thing to bear in mind is when the shit hit the fan in the US the AUD dropped like a rock. The same correlations are occuring today. Oil is up, AUD is up, dow is going up. I'm of the opinion we'll see Dow 4,200 before we see Dow 12,000. There are simply too many people with not enough money. It's also been reported the mortgage market in the US is shrinking. Banks have the cash, but they're a black hole, most of them still hold $1T+ off the books. You might say that banks are still in an M&A cycle. Anyway you look at it, they're hoarding and not lending as expected. So fundamentally, it doesn't look good for anybody. In fact, the only thing going for currencies like the AUD is the USD strategy is QE to the point at which it is viable and profitable to export, but how do you achieve this when the banks won't lend? There was a mere $30B small business bill that was recently killed, which is really sad. First of all, it should have been $300B at least, and second of all, it shouldn't go through the banking system. It should be distributed directly via SBA and with no personal guarantees. There's a lot of contradictory forces at work. At the moment the bias is to the down side.
  • #22,552
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:20am Aug 5, 2010 3:20am
This is an interesting statement.

The dollar in my eyes has been week for this entire rally.

It only appears to be strong do to some hyped up lackluster reports.

AND!!!! The basket of other falling currencies it is weighted against, which almost 60% is the Euro. So it is more a case of which is the better of the two
crap currencies ATM.

AT LEAST the AUD pays TO HOLD!! The swap is great on holding. Sure it may take a few days or a week for a few hundred pips, but why not get paid while your "money is in the bank" - the US is not going to raise rates any time soon.

And we are not creating any jobs as of yet. That ADP report was a joke.
I am betting on NFP negativo!

Quoting rahulkghosh
Well, in the last month we've seen the dollar weaken on bad US data. I expect that trend as things get much worse in the US.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,553
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:25am Aug 5, 2010 3:25am
Quoting XTrade
Awesome to hear a post from someone in Australia. These are the types of things that make our little community here great. I could go on about all the problems in the US!!!

So with all those factors are you looking deflationary/ Money hoarding / = positive or "higher AUD?
or.

Thanks.
X
Quite frankly, it's so bad here I'm moving back to the US. Outside of the mining sector, the place is horrible. The media figureheads can talk all they want, but I can anyone on the street and they see it for what it is. Small business is really hurting. Housing prices have dropped. Note when you see the housing #'s being touted upward, they are inner city. Australians have a thing for cities. Problem is, many people bought at the high end outside of the cities, in or near mining centers. It's not uncommon for these places to be devastated. Fortunately it's not that bad yet, but the writing is on the wall.

I am definitely in the deflationary camp, primarily because housing is the single most valuable asset most families have. The inflation is mainly in the food here. So naturally restaurants are hurting, and they should be, when they're charging what they are charging.

I'm in Queensland, and I'd much rather be in California, so that should give you an indication of just how horrible it is.
  • #22,554
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:28am Aug 5, 2010 3:28am
Quoting XTrade

AT LEAST the AUD pays TO HOLD!! The swap is great on holding.
Ah now THAT is a very interesting statement. Sure, I could leave my money here for the next year and get nearly 7% on a standard bank CD, but what good's that going to do me when I exchange it at .60 on the USD?
  • #22,555
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:40am Aug 5, 2010 3:40am
LOL!! No I mean as a trade.

When you have a long =AUD/Short=USD and you rollover as an FX trade the interest rate for buying AUD is favorable.

I have prepared a screenshot of some demo trades I have on a 5 million USD account. In the scheme of interbank forex these are not even big trades.
But look at the interest I get.

Even, if you hold a mini or 3 or a standard for a couple days you see positive.
When I short swissy i have a negative rate.

see below.

Quoting TheTopBloke
Ah now THAT is a very interesting statement. Sure, I could leave my money here for the next year and get nearly 7% on a standard bank CD, but what good's that going to do me when I exchange it at .60 on the USD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Demo_5mn_swing_daily.GIF Size: 89 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,556
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:43am Aug 5, 2010 3:43am
BTW 7% is Phenomenal on a standard CD. US CDs were at 4% a couple years ago, now they are in the low +1.25s

AMEX just offered a new one at 1.30 - horrible.

But if you are making interest in AUD @ 7% why would you even want USD?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,557
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:48am Aug 5, 2010 3:48am
Quoting XTrade
LOL!! No I mean as a trade.

When you have a long =AUD/Short=USD and you rollover as an FX trade the interest rate for buying AUD is favorable.

I have prepared a screenshot of some demo trades I have on a 5 million USD account. In the scheme of interbank forex these are not even big trades.
But look at the interest I get.

Even, if you hold a mini or 3 or a standard for a couple days you see positive.
When I short swissy i have a negative rate.

see below.
Carry trading is way hyped. For one, over the long-term carry positive pairs depreciate in value due to differential inflation. A majority of the swap is eroded, 60%. Also, carry trade pairs can unwide very quickly.

But ya, the swap really sucks for shorting.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,558
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:50am Aug 5, 2010 3:50am
Don't look forward to much my friend.
EXACTLY, what you are saying is here in the US and WORSE.

My real unemployment figure that includes illegals, Part time workers and other non full-time employees is 16% to 17% unemployment.

Things have turned around a bit, but not really.

One report negates another. And without jobs to create spending, the US is
not coming out of this so fast.

Agree about media. I would tough it out with all the nice looking women down there.....

Quoting TheTopBloke
Quite frankly, it's so bad here I'm moving back to the US. Outside of the mining sector, the place is horrible. The media figureheads can talk all they want,
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,559
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:53am Aug 5, 2010 3:53am
I am not a "carry trader" I am working on my longer term swings though. So I like to place trades that can ride for a few weeks while gaining consistent pips, the swap is just an added bonus.

My point really is, large banks enjoy an even greater return. Sometimes enough to negate a small loss in pips on a lucrative trade if it comes to that point.



Quoting rahulkghosh
Carry trading is way hyped. For one, over the long-term carry positive pairs depreciate in value due to differential inflation. A majority of the swap is eroded, 60%. Also, carry trade pairs can unwide very quickly.

But ya, the swap really sucks for shorting.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,560
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:05am Aug 5, 2010 4:05am
Looking for test of .9300

Then re-assess goals.

No one in this camp?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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