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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,201
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:10pm Aug 4, 2010 8:10pm
EURCHF: dont miss this
S>R + 1.4000 + fib
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  • #4,202
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:13pm Aug 4, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting m.a
USDYEN240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/7i...urjr9iygki.gif

That's impressive, well done.
  • #4,203
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:14pm Aug 4, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURCHF: dont miss this
S>R + 1.4000 + fib
As for GU, what do you look for at that level? Say....a 1hr topping candle to short. I presume you don;t just set a short order at the level?
  • #4,204
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:19pm Aug 4, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
That's impressive, well done.
It's just a big bear flag
Draw a line from the first pivot top to the low, flag out to the right, then again to the low.
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  • #4,205
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:21pm Aug 4, 2010 8:21pm
U/J, I'm not convinced that this pair has bottomed.
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  • #4,206
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:22pm Aug 4, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting SanMiguel
It's just a big bear flag
Draw a line from the first pivot top to the low, flag out to the right, then again to the low.

You should have posted this sooner ,so we can ride it
  • #4,207
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:31pm Aug 4, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting SanMiguel
As for GU, what do you look for at that level? Say....a 1hr topping candle to short. I presume you don;t just set a short order at the level?
To be honest with you I'm a bit skeptical about Cable. But to answer your question I usually set a limit order at confluence level ,with a SL and TP and leave it as is, for Cable it got R at fib 61, it was good to set a sell limit exactly on fib level,the opportunity is missed now.
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  • #4,208
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:22pm Aug 4, 2010 9:22pm
see attached for details
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  • #4,209
  • Edited 9:50pm Aug 4, 2010 9:32pm | Edited 9:50pm
also pin bar formed right at 61.8% fib *
Quoting pipspike
see attached for details
  • #4,210
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:47pm Aug 4, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
To be honest with you I'm a bit skeptical about Cable. But to answer your question I usually set a limit order at confluence level ,with a SL and TP and leave it as is, for Cable it got R at fib 61, it was good to set a sell limit exactly on fib level,the opportunity is missed now.
Just wondering as you said it was a bad idea in an earlier post. I took a 50% position short at the 50 fib and another short at the 61.8 but stop above resistance so that was stopped out. Cable might be turning now but maybe it might have been better to wait for the 1hr chart to turn.
For confluence to happen, you would have to wait for price to pause at the 61.8 though, no?
  • #4,211
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:05pm Aug 4, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting Patience
Hi Victory83

That's weird. I can't see your post even though it says you have posted before

at least you knew me
thanks dude, i really confused last days, it became kind of spy movies.
i try to make it
  • #4,212
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:54pm Aug 5, 2010 12:54pm
I know it's been posted already, but any takers may get a retest of the LTL to short the audcad.

http://i35.tinypic.com/4t2bl0.jpg

http://i36.tinypic.com/hu2802.jpg
  • #4,213
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:55pm Aug 5, 2010 12:55pm
LOL....didn't notice pipspikes post....well, we can always use more confirmation
  • #4,214
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:09pm Aug 5, 2010 7:09pm
Gold
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  • #4,215
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:11pm Aug 5, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/J, I'm not convinced that this pair has bottomed.
U/J as expected
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  • #4,216
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:18pm Aug 5, 2010 7:18pm
A/U is getting intense
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  • #4,217
  • Aug 5, 2010 9:59pm Aug 5, 2010 9:59pm
it'll be a free fall. The only thing thats holding it for now is the non-farm payroll situation tomorrow. A lot of traders are on stand by, waiting for news to come and go first to aviod noise.
Quoting shahab8b
A/U is getting intense
  • #4,218
  • Aug 6, 2010 6:58am Aug 6, 2010 6:58am
Quoting shahab8b
U/J as expected
good job dude
  • #4,219
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:28am Aug 7, 2010 10:28am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U is getting intense
What do you think Shahab? This is using a 13 week COT index.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,220
  • Aug 8, 2010 12:31pm Aug 8, 2010 12:31pm
I've been crunching the COT report and trying to formalize some trading rules around it for a couple of months now based on what I call the demand horizon. I single out the commodities where demand is positive. Based on this I shorted Gold and lost 2% on the trade. I'm probrably shorting gold again this week at some point. I don't have a formal entry trigger yet but a 1H MA sounds logical maybe the 50,100, or 200?

USD/CAD looks like a nice sell too for 50plus pips if we don't get a huge gap down at open.

I'll also be watching USD/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

I've attached my report. Obviously use at your own discretion
Attached File(s)
File Type: csv cot_current.csv   2 KB | 298 downloads
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