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  • #3,881
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:20am Aug 4, 2010 10:20am
GUYS i have to leave, i will answer questions after... I will leave you on this note...


1. open a daily chart of EUR/USD and look the distance it travels over time

2. a TP of 400-600 pips was also an option for me not long ago


bye
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #3,882
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:21am Aug 4, 2010 10:21am
Quoting bit9ret
Yes, I see.

A 65-70 pip target would allow you to nail half the day's ADR above or below the London/NY open. This behaviour is much more likely than a one-way trend day of entire ADR on one side of London/NY open.
My thoughts too. Nothing stopping you giving it a try that way. It only need to take you 20 attempts to nail one and you have done a nice profit for the month.
  • #3,883
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:22am Aug 4, 2010 10:22am
Quoting Tony112
GUYS i have to leave, i will answer questions after... I will leave you on this note...


1. open a daily chart of EUR/USD and look the distance it travels over time

2. a TP of 400-600 pips was also an option for me not long ago


bye
Cheers Tony, look forward to that.

For now, i'm sorta onboard
  • #3,884
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:06am Aug 4, 2010 11:06am
I'm wondering how don't you blow up your account with 1% risk after 200 consecutive losses ?
  • #3,885
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:13am Aug 4, 2010 11:13am
Quoting Walcott
I'm wondering how don't you blow up your account with 1% risk after 200 consecutive losses ?
If I'm correct, in this context Tony calls eveything that isn't a winner a loss.

As this strategy relies heavily on getting to 0SL quickly and that happens very frequently, 200 loss isn't 200 x 1% risk. In any case, if you take your 1% risk on a reducing balance basis, it would still take more than 200 losses to get you account below margin.

G-Man
  • #3,886
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:22am Aug 4, 2010 11:22am
Read the thread (or at least the first post). Unless you genuinely don't know anything about money management, forex, or how trades are opened or closed, it should be obvious how he can sustain 200 or more losses without his balance sheet moving much at all.

To sum the whole thread up: At open, wait for 1+ pip jump up or down, open trade in that direction, move to BREAK EVEN as soon as possible. (say 5-10 pips into profit depending on your risk) Do not let price retrace back on your entry more than 2 pips.

The majority of your trades close for NO LOSS until you get the win. He could loose for 3 years straight and still barely see his balance move, and that scenario is highly unrealistic. Look back over the charts for this year. There's 1 run of 140 pips one way or another at least once every month or every other month from what I've seen at a casual glance.

Now look at your account balance. Set your lot size to $4 for every $1000 you have. (Or calculate a 10 pip 4% stop loss against your balance, whichever's easier for you to calculate) Now take your current balance, type it into a calculator and multiply it by 1.56. That's roughly what you'll get every time you have a 140 pip run. Hit enter a few times, counting each stroke of the enter key as a "win".

How many presses of the enter key does it take for you to know that you need to be using this strategy? Took me all of 20 seconds.
  • #3,887
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:22am Aug 4, 2010 11:22am
ADR shows you what you can expect, but trade closing much be chosen according to PA analyze like PP, BRN, fibs, main trend, candlestick formations on higher TF, S/R.

Sometime it'll be wise to take only 50 pips, and sometime you can reach like 300 pips or more by swich TF and let it run.

Best way to make profit in long term should be placing SL on logical PA levels I mentioned AND far enough to let the price breath.

Tony's 140 TP is great if you can't watch your sceen each 10 minutes, but keep in mind each pip worth much and epic wins doesn't happen often.

Choose between Keeping it simple or making more money in the long run (takes more chart watching time).
  • #3,888
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:31am Aug 4, 2010 11:31am
Quote
There's 1 run of 140 pips one way or another at least once every month or every other month from what I've seen at a casual glance.

Are you sure the 140 pips runners you noticed on history charts would have been token by the actual or previous (Big candle) Tony's strategy ?

It's delicate to Backtest without 5s historical charts accuracy.
  • #3,889
  • Aug 4, 2010 12:21pm Aug 4, 2010 12:21pm
commander you and I turned out to be the suckers today, me the bigger sucker ofcourse because I managed to screw an entry I had.

In any case today should give pause to the sceptics that a 100 point run is very much feasible atleast once a month and you frankly need just one 100 point run/month for spectacular growth with the right m/m

Quoting DanUK
Doh! Missed NY entry!
  • #3,890
  • Aug 4, 2010 12:26pm Aug 4, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting coolshades
commander you and I turned out to be the suckers today, me the bigger sucker ofcourse because I managed to screw an entry I had.

In any case today should give pause to the sceptics that a 100 point run is very much feasible atleast once a month and you frankly need just one 100 point run/month for spectacular growth with the right m/m
Indeed. So long as you don't miss the winning trades!

Mine was due to carelessness... lunch starts at 13:00 for me and I was too engrossed in getting something to eat! A costly mistake indeed! A fair warning too though that unless you can absolutely guarantee to be available to trade every open you should be much more conservative about % risk than we originally spoke about!
  • #3,891
  • Aug 4, 2010 12:36pm Aug 4, 2010 12:36pm
Hi guys,

Just a couple of questions that maybe one of you guys that trade this system will comment on

Are all you guys using Oanda for this strat?

Is there any other broker that can be used?

After how many pips in profit are you putting your stop at 0sl?

Cheers...
  • #3,892
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:15pm Aug 4, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Walcott
Are you sure the 140 pips runners you noticed on history charts would have been token by the actual or previous (Big candle) Tony's strategy ?

It's delicate to Backtest without 5s historical charts accuracy.

The price is the price, as a friend of mine likes to say. It's the same on every chart. 5 seconds, 5 minutes, doesn't matter. (it's just easier to see 1 pip moves on a second chart) I can't trade on a 5 second chart because MBT doesn't offer it. So, I have to use the 1 minute chart with an indicator that breaks down every pip with horizontal lines. Makes it real easy to see the price jump across the lines up or down. I've even got an EA that will straddle the open of the candle and open the trades for me, but sadly it doesn't work on an ECN broker and it can't be set to only trade market opens.

I think the most unfortunate part of this whole thread is that this system is about as mechanical as they come, yet we don't have an EA for it.
  • #3,893
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:41pm Aug 4, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Tony112
NY ! YES! F**K

I cant trade NY because i am at work, but congrats to all today for the EPIC WIN at NY open

PS: Tony good to see the DISCO BALL out again
  • #3,894
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:17pm Aug 4, 2010 2:17pm
It's about 60 pips floating, pulled back from over 90 pips. I quit trading my scalping strategy today over this because I couldn't trade NY open today. Could have made nearly $4000 today, instead I'm loosing money.

For those of you in it, I hope you get your pay day Good luck guys!
  • #3,895
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:19pm Aug 4, 2010 3:19pm
Hi! I discovered this thread today. It is a very interesting and unique one.

When I tried to do a backtesting with 5 seg charts with Oanda, the chart only had the information of the last 5 hours. Does anyone one which broker gives good history 5seg or 10 seg chart (or a chart smaller than 1M) to make a backtest of this strategy?

Thanks!
Jed
  • #3,896
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:43pm Aug 4, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Leviathan
The price is the price, as a friend of mine likes to say. It's the same on every chart. 5 seconds, 5 minutes, doesn't matter. (it's just easier to see 1 pip moves on a second chart) I can't trade on a 5 second chart because MBT doesn't offer it. So, I have to use the 1 minute chart with an indicator that breaks down every pip with horizontal lines. Makes it real easy to see the price jump across the lines up or down. I've even got an EA that will straddle the open of the candle and open the trades for me, but sadly it doesn't work on an ECN broker...
I'm using a MT4 ECN broker too, with 1 minute candles, and I confirm it's easy to place entry. ECN broker is necessary to be able to have a very tight SL, as implied by this system.

FYI, there are only a few lines to change to adapt an EA to any ECN broker (only the OrderSend function needs to be modified, because you cannot use S/L and T/P in the order, you have to modify the order once it has been placed).

Anyway, I'm using an EA for this strategy, but the results are not good, it's hard to code the moving of the S/L, and today I have been stopped on my Short entry... while most of you are still winning dozens pips !!!
  • #3,897
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:56pm Aug 4, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting Tony112
today ny entry is epic
Congrats for that trade . But, I got a question:

Attached you can see my EURUSD 1M chart of today. I am in IBFX, GMT time, thus, 13 GMT is 8 EST. According to my broker´s 1M bar, the open price of today´s NY session was 1.32051 and the "one pip" I had to wait to know today's direction, was 1.32041. That meant short.

In the best moment of that chart, I would had been 6 pips in profit (minus spread). I imagine that, by that moment, I should had a -0.5 SL. With the bull bars that followed, I should had been out of the market at about 8:06 EST.

My question is: What am I doing wrong? I can't find today's epic entry

Thanks!
Jed

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #3,898
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:12pm Aug 4, 2010 4:12pm
Wow, that is some serious deviation from MBT's charts. Here's mine. (MBT is eastern time)

http://i752.photobucket.com/albums/x...sd84nyopen.jpg
  • #3,899
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:25pm Aug 4, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting Walcott
I'm wondering how don't you blow up your account with 1% risk after 200 consecutive losses ?

0SL as soon as you can my friend
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #3,900
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:27pm Aug 4, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting Leviathan
Read the thread (or at least the first post). Unless you genuinely don't know anything about money management, forex, or how trades are opened or closed, it should be obvious how he can sustain 200 or more losses without his balance sheet moving much at all.

To sum the whole thread up: At open, wait for 1+ pip jump up or down, open trade in that direction, move to BREAK EVEN as soon as possible. (say 5-10 pips into profit depending on your risk) Do not let price retrace back on your entry more than 2 pips.

The majority of your trades close for...

couldn't have expressed it better, good job my friend your smart
Invest in alarm clocks
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