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  • #3,861
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:16am Aug 4, 2010 9:16am
today ny entry is epic
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  • #3,862
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:23am Aug 4, 2010 9:23am
Tony, what has your experience been over the years with NY open and NFP friday?
  • #3,863
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:26am Aug 4, 2010 9:26am
Quoting Leviathan
Tony, what has your experience been over the years with NY open and NFP friday?

DO NOT TRADE NFP AT THE TIME OF RELEASE UNLESS you like fighting with cobras... hundreds of them

have an early entry at 8:00 am exactly with a 2 pips sl ... reduced
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  • #3,864
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:34am Aug 4, 2010 9:34am
NY ! YES! F**K
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  • #3,865
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:35am Aug 4, 2010 9:35am
FLOATING AT 80 PIPS
IF THIS TRADE REACHES TP, Friday will be my last day on this earth
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  • #3,866
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:36am Aug 4, 2010 9:36am
we did touch a support
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  • #3,867
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:41am Aug 4, 2010 9:41am
yea
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  • #3,868
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:46am Aug 4, 2010 9:46am
i will have no mercy at all for this

exactly like when i used to lose...

I will not settle for less than 140
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  • #3,869
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:48am Aug 4, 2010 9:48am
Quoting Tony112
we did touch a support
Hi Tony. Quick question for you here.

So you're 80 pips to the good.

You risked, say, 1% on this trade? You are 40% of account growth, it's the stuff of dreams, really.

If you hit your TP, you are 70% account growth. I would probably have to clean myself up if that happened to me in one trade!

But here's the thing, if it decides it's done enough of south and heads back north, what do you do? Is your stop still BE or are you, at the very least, going to take 5% growth from this trade by moving your stop to 10 pips? It safe to assume that as the prevailing trend is north, if it reaches 10 it'll carry on through to BE, isn't it?

It's the most intriguing strategy on FF. I'm not sure if my brain could accept the 10, 20 or 30 losses you must have in a row from time to time but man, when you nail a big boy, you must feel on top of the world!
  • #3,870
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:52am Aug 4, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Trotty
Hi Tony....

ok, to answer the best way, imagine this: you hits your SL AND YOU WIN 10 pips... ok ... let's say that... then, the price goes south for 130 pips... missing a potential EPIC WIN, how would you feel? put all chances on your side... set it to 0SL, that's it.

ok, next question... the 30 consecutive lossess?? my friend, I was able to take 200 consecutive losses without even moving, I'M like concrete.. . imagine 200 consecutive losses followed by just 2 EPIC wins of 140 pips each.... very closes to each other... lets say like a week or 2 close..
do the math
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  • #3,871
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:52am Aug 4, 2010 9:52am
I think his load is much heavier than 1% ...

Great Tony

Quoting Trotty
Hi Tony. Quick question for you here.

So you're 80 pips to the good.

You risked, say, 1% on this trade? You are 40% of account growth, it's the stuff of dreams, really.
  • #3,872
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:55am Aug 4, 2010 9:55am
The 10 day daily range (ADR) = 134 pips. Doesn't change much if you go to 20 days ADR = 136. Stable value.

So I see you are shooting for a running day that runs a huge trend one way off the London or NY open.
  • #3,873
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:55am Aug 4, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Tony112
we did touch a support
80 pips..nice profit Tony. good trade...
  • #3,874
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:02am Aug 4, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Tony112
ok, to answer the best way, imagine this: you hits your SL AND YOU WIN 10 pips... ok ... let's say that... then, the price goes south for 130 pips... missing a potential EPIC WIN, how would you feel?...
Woah!

I admire your balls mate (not that way). If you ran 200 losses, how did you not clear yourself out? Or maybe you did.

What about now, now that you have refined and changed this strat. What's your worst run of losses?

I'm genuinely intrigued by this and am considering starting small with say Ģ1k in Oanda and seeing what comes out. Some stats would be a big help though.

Regarding the stop loss being moved to 10. Yeah, i'd be mortified to see that. But, i'd want to do the stats to find out how many times that actually happened. On average, if it's more than once out of every fifteen times, you'd be statistically better off moving it to 10 at some point. If you catch my drift....
  • #3,875
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:03am Aug 4, 2010 10:03am
Quoting bit9ret
The 10 day daily range (ADR) = 134 pips. Doesn't change much if you go to 20 days ADR = 136. Stable value.

So I see you are shooting for a running day that runs a huge trend one way off the London or NY open.
That's ADR though. What happens if he keeps it open past midnight? I suspect he would so he then uses some of the following says range and gets his 140.....

Not that the market adheres to ADR in any way of course. It's purely historical data.
  • #3,876
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:08am Aug 4, 2010 10:08am
The 6 pips makes no difference. I was showing his ADR target has a "statistical" or valid foundation (not a number he's pulling out of the hat), not disputing it.

Not "historical" in the sense of being useless, as it's a very stable number for most pairs if averaged over the last 10 days (usually only differs from 20 day value by a few pips), ie. a robust #/parameter for a target. It's why he uses it.

I see your point about holding for the next day. It does still require a huge one-way directional move (ie. you could often get half the ADR 134-140 pips above London/NY open, and half below and target would never be hit).

As you say, if he can hold to 0SL consistently, he's in the green bigtime.
  • #3,877
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:11am Aug 4, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Tony112
ok, to answer the best way, imagine this: you hits your SL AND YOU WIN 10 pips... ok ... let's say that... then, the price goes south for 130 pips... missing a potential EPIC WIN, how would you feel?...
so Tony how many consecutive losses was it from the last major win ?
I remember you mentioned a few days ago that you had 30+ already ...
  • #3,878
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:13am Aug 4, 2010 10:13am
Quoting bit9ret
The 6 pips makes no difference. I was showing his ADR target has a "statistical" or valid foundation (not a number he's pulling out of the hat), not disputing it.

Not "historical" in the sense that it's a very stable number for most pairs if averaged over the last 10 days (usually only differs from 20 day value by a few pips), ie. a robust #/parameter for a target. It's why he uses it.

I see your point about holding for the next day. But it does still require a huge one-way directional move (ie. you could get...
And I guess that's what the bets are on, that one big monster that eliminates all the losses.

I can see some real merit in what he is doing but it's the profit target that is getting to me as well.

I would love to have some more stats from Tony. How many time has it moved 30, 40, 50, 60 pips and then reversed to take out the stop? You only need three 50 pip moves to make up for one 140 pip move. I'm guessing that the 140 has been settled on by statistical analysys but if it hasn't, i'd be tempted to try smaller but more regular TP's.
  • #3,879
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:16am Aug 4, 2010 10:16am
Yes, I see.

A 65-70 pip target would allow you to nail half the day's ADR above or below the London/NY open. This behaviour is much more likely than a one-way trend day of entire ADR on one side of London/NY open.
  • #3,880
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:19am Aug 4, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Trotty
And I guess that's what the bets are on, that one big monster that eliminates all the losses.

I can see some real merit in what he is doing but it's the profit target that is getting to me as well.

I would love to have some more stats from Tony. How many time has it moved 30, 40, 50, 60 pips and then reversed to take out the stop? You only need three 50 pip moves to make up for one 140 pip move. I'm guessing that the 140 has been settled on by statistical analysys but if it hasn't, i'd be tempted to try smaller but more regular TP's.
Yes, I think itīs easier to have several wins with 50 TP than only one with 140, and what about having 80 pips floating and after a while your 0SL hit ?
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