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Silent Service Method

  • #10,201
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:49am Aug 3, 2010 7:49am
Quoting jicjoc
The recent bullish behaviour of Eurousd especially in the light of all the bearish commentary (everywhere) really has hit home to me how important two elements in tandem are - Price action and Support/Resistance.

Separately neither are worth very much.
Together they are very informative.

Horizontal Support and Resistance are just area's where price may reverse. There is absolutely no guarantee of anything though. Price action makes a reversal more probable (and we are reversal traders pretty much here anyway - j16, clock, nison's...
Funny how you mention this. I just finished a 6 week video series on this very subject. The experiment was simple: Take an entry with the main trend of a handful of pairs based upon a random pre-determined number of 4 hour bars.

For example, one week it might have been entry on bar 6. So, all pairs would be entered at that bar. I never closed out the positions, so it was a constant pyramid of entries.

Guess what? As soon as I started this, the reversal happened and we all learned how you should never add to a loser, and that support and resistance without price action is a lot less powerful of a trading system.
  • #10,202
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:52am Aug 3, 2010 7:52am
Quoting InfinitySL
Love these summaries that Bespoke puts out. Not really any trade ideas per se, but a good look at what's been doing well (or not) in the various sectors....
Yeah, that last line makes me wonder what this fall has in mind for the markets. I am presently enjoying this push up on the EUR/USD, but I am not married to this position by any means.
  • #10,203
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:20am Aug 3, 2010 8:20am
Quoting clockwork71
Funny how you mention this. I just finished a 6 week video series on this very subject. The experiment was simple: Take an entry with the main trend of a handful of pairs based upon a random pre-determined number of 4 hour bars.

For example, one week it might have been entry on bar 6. So, all pairs would be entered at that bar. I never closed out the positions, so it was a constant pyramid of entries.

Guess what? As soon as I started this, the reversal happened and we all learned how you should never add to a loser, and that support and resistance...
Interesting!
Im trying to understand the entry. So you go long if say the last 6 bars on a currency have been bullish?
  • #10,204
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:02am Aug 3, 2010 11:02am
Quoting jicjoc
Interesting!
Im trying to understand the entry. So you go long if say the last 6 bars on a currency have been bullish?

NO, what I did was pick a random number the week before. I went to random.org, to use their random number generator, and used that bar as an entry, no matter what the price action or if it was at S/R.

So since USD/JPY has been in a downtrend, if I have a number of 9.....then I simply short it at the open of the 9th 4 hour bar. I keep that trade open, and count it as pips, not dollars......

The next week, I would short a second position in USD/JPY at whatever random number I generate for that week....and so on and so on.

I only did it for 6 weeks, so at the end of it - I had 6 different short USD/JPY positions, then added the positive or negative pips together. I did this with 6 pairs I believe, maybe 5.

It turned out to be a disaster if you didn't pay attention to price action.....which was a great lesson. It was a demo account, so no animals were hurt in the filming of this motion picture.
  • #10,205
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:16am Aug 3, 2010 11:16am
Quoting clockwork71
I am with Interactive Brokers, Dukascopy. One of the issues with being American is that you cannot trade CFDs, so it's a regulatory issue on my end. I have played with the live feed, but couldn't add/withdraw money because of said issues in the US. I didn't find much difference between it and any other one I have used.

IBFX has a wicked bad week tick that has been in the feed forever in CHF/JPY, and another in NZD/JPY. (I believe the N/J) It's a common thing really. Interactive Brokers has them so often, as ECNs tend to do, that there is even...
I think we've talked about continuos charts when I was looking into commodities trading. I didn't like the idea of trading the next to expire future from a continuos chart but if it's trading on the chart then why not?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,206
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:30am Aug 3, 2010 11:30am
Chris, that is an awesome experiement proving that just random entry alone, along with the trend, is not a viable long term solution.

As for the EURUSD long, where/when did you get in long? I went long on the IB on the Daily chart of July 28, but I got scared out and only took 2 pips profit (I was just not sold on the EURUSD going long off just an IB).

Just curious. Thank you!

T.J.
  • #10,207
  • Aug 3, 2010 3:45pm Aug 3, 2010 3:45pm
I believe he went long on the bounce off 1.30 (retest from the up side), price action looks more like a little V if you look down on lower tf.

I too was watching this one but hesitated so decided I was not ready.
  • #10,208
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:03pm Aug 3, 2010 4:03pm
Just open new pairs never open chart to check them before
U/SEK , U/NOK Looks very interesting pairs and easy to trade
trend and direction very clear and Long term Looks trendy no big zigzag

Anyone trade it ? didn't see anyone talks about it!!
If anyone trade it will b cool to give some light about it for example volatility
  • #10,209
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:38pm Aug 3, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting egkid
Just open new pairs never open chart to check them before
U/SEK , U/NOK Looks very interesting pairs and easy to trade
trend and direction very clear and Long term Looks trendy no big zigzag

Anyone trade it ? didn't see anyone talks about it!!
If anyone trade it will b cool to give some light about it for example volatility
Check the spread though!
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,210
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:22pm Aug 3, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
I believe he went long on the bounce off 1.30 (retest from the up side), price action looks more like a little V if you look down on lower tf.

I too was watching this one but hesitated so decided I was not ready.
It wouldnt have been my entry. Candles were very small for those few days.
Small candles are unreliable.

The bull day on the 22nd would have been a great entry if it had just gotten a little lower.

A similiar type of trade could be in the pipe on usdjpy soon. A concrete floor was set at 86.30 ish. Today it broke convincingly below that. A shooting star back up into that in 2 days time would be a great entry short.

Thats the great thing about entering using retraces. Currencies show you their hand by piercing SR. They usually then retrace back to the SR before taking off again.
  • #10,211
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:32pm Aug 3, 2010 11:32pm
Woohoo, stocks on mt4! I can post some stock charts now. I really like this one. Barclays (barc.lse).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: barc.gif Size: 33 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,212
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:13am Aug 4, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Woohoo, stocks on mt4! I can post some stock charts now. I really like this one. Barclays (barc.lse).
Where are you getting that feed from?
  • #10,213
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:22am Aug 4, 2010 8:22am
Quoting unlv_tj
Chris, that is an awesome experiement proving that just random entry alone, along with the trend, is not a viable long term solution.

As for the EURUSD long, where/when did you get in long? I went long on the IB on the Daily chart of July 28, but I got scared out and only took 2 pips profit (I was just not sold on the EURUSD going long off just an IB).

Just curious. Thank you!

T.J.

I entered after we held above the 1.30 mark with a 4 hour bullish pinbar.
  • #10,214
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:23am Aug 4, 2010 8:23am
Quoting jicjoc
It wouldnt have been my entry. Candles were very small for those few days.
Small candles are unreliable.

The bull day on the 22nd would have been a great entry if it had just gotten a little lower.

A similiar type of trade could be in the pipe on usdjpy soon. A concrete floor was set at 86.30 ish. Today it broke convincingly below that. A shooting star back up into that in 2 days time would be a great entry short.

Thats the great thing about entering using retraces. Currencies show you their hand by piercing SR. They usually then retrace back...

On my feed the 4 hour had a perfect pinbar, on the daily you are correct....
  • #10,215
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:25am Aug 4, 2010 8:25am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Check the spread though!
The spread is higher, but the tick value should be less. Also, I suggest thinking of the USD/NOK as a trending pair, along with oil. It literally will follow oil prices, due to all those Norwegian oil rigs in the North Sea.
  • #10,216
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:26am Aug 4, 2010 8:26am
Quoting jicjoc
Where are you getting that feed from?
you can see in the lower left corner. it is avafx. but be careful when trading live with them. see forexpeacearmy. i am sure that arferdaily is only using them for demo.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #10,217
  • Aug 4, 2010 8:36am Aug 4, 2010 8:36am
Quoting aserbfx
you can see in the lower left corner. it is avafx. but be careful when trading live with them. see forexpeacearmy. i am sure that arferdaily is only using them for demo.
I would not have them listed on my website if I didn't think they were the real deal. Regulated in Ireland, and even at forexeacearmy, (which is nothing but a front for Dimitri's scams. All one has to do is look him up on the internet to see plenty about him and "Rob" the trader.) is rated a 3.

As an example: GFT has 3 stars like AVA. I can tell you GFT is a great broker, and wouldn't hesitate to recommend them. Interbank FX has only 2. (Huh?) Interactive Brokers only has 3. (Best overall broker on the planet.) So.....unless you are making money for Dimitri or as an IB, the rating are suspect at best. I am highly suspicious of the rating system over there....

Of course, no matter what: Do your own research.
  • #10,218
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:32am Aug 4, 2010 9:32am
Quoting jicjoc
Where are you getting that feed from?
AVA Fx Demo. I opened a live account today, going to fund it soon and get trading next month. Most of the problems people have with brokers is to do with execution, slippage, spread widening when news trading, etc. I'm trading weekly charts so not as worried about any of that.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,219
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:44am Aug 4, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Arfer Daily
AVA Fx Demo. I opened a live account today, going to fund it soon and get trading next month. Most of the problems people have with brokers is to do with execution, slippage, spread widening when news trading, etc. I'm trading weekly charts so not as worried about any of that.
what is the minimum lot-size for cfds (commodities and stocks)? can you trade stocks and commidites with mt4? i couldn't find that on the website?
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #10,220
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:02am Aug 4, 2010 10:02am
Quoting aserbfx
what is the minimum lot-size for cfds (commodities and stocks)? can you trade stocks and commidites with mt4? i couldn't find that on the website?
You can trade everything at 0.01 but on certain things like ftse100 or dji that works out to £1 a tick. You can trade the s + p 500 with a 50 pip spread at 0.0062 pence per tick which is a lot cheaper and dji and sp500 tend to move together anyway.

You can trade them all with mt4 but the euro stocks that are on the demo won't be on the live feed for a few weeks yet apparently.

Open a demo and it's all there. The demo feed is actually very similar to the live feed and they take into account spread and everything.

I've been through and found out the spreads for the pairs I am going to trade and the spreads and tick value for the commodities and stocks that I'll be trading. When I get a chance I'll put them all in a document and post them.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
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