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  • #13,381
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:32am Aug 3, 2010 5:32am
Quoting stewrigh
Yes I understand that, but to expand the analogy... eventually the Lancaster will get back on course, preceded by the spitfire and Hunter.

It also conflicts with, what I thought was the guiding tenet of this thread.

Namely, we need the Big boss, Boss and worker to be in alignment.

If you take your lead from the worker you may as well ignore the higher timeframes altogether.
Going a bit further with the analogy.

The Lancaster has a target and although mountains may divert it, it will eventually revert to the true course(trend).

The spitfire and Hunter although they can take quicker, reactive, avoiding action, eventually they will fall into line behind the Lancaster and with the original course(trend).
  • #13,382
  • Aug 3, 2010 5:38am Aug 3, 2010 5:38am
Quoting hcristea
I believe that the LONG EURCHF trade from 22.07 was a high risk trade because the Big Boss and Boss were not aligned.
The July's candle from Big Boss was not complete so the latest sentiment from Big Boss was June candle which was very bearish.
Boss was bullish indeed (Bounce + doji + strong close above first bounced cande)

Worker made a (small) bullish hammer at S and that hammer came after strong selling which is an extra point in favor for LONG. But it is still high risk because the Big Boss is not aligned.

P.S. This is SNB playground which...
I agree, So far we have one bullish candle on the Big Boss, To me that isn't an up trend even looking at the immediate tf.

Until the Big Boss turns bullish the trend is still down IMHO.

Probly get both barrels and the howitzer now - lol

BTW SNB stopped intervening in May.
  • #13,383
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:22am Aug 3, 2010 6:22am
What Strat is saying, is we need to focus on what is happening NOW (IMMEDIATE) not what happened last month or last year, thats all history.

The EURCHF pair : Big Boss is up.... NOW
Boss is up........ NOW
Worker is up.......NOW

They are all in alignment, and that is completely tradable!

For any shorts on this pair you would need to see the following:

Big Boss down....NOW
Boss down.........NOW
Worker down......NOW

The longer term trends are down, but are only tradable when the immediate trend is also down. Trading in this manner is what will make you a CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADER.

Hope this helps

Tom
  • #13,384
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:34am Aug 3, 2010 6:34am
Hi Strat and Everyone!

Thank you for this thread. I do hope that this will show me the LIGHT.

You see, I went live last week with a relatively small amount. Now here's what happened:

In the first hour of my deposit, I increased my account by a staggering 34% by trading the 15 minute chart.

And then, in the next hour, I lost all my profits and aside from that, my account dipped by 4% compared to my original deposit size.

I was traumatized by the losses, to say the least. The psychological blow was hard and ONE THAT I WILL REMEMBER FOR A LONG TIME.

I did not trade for days and read more about Strat's and J16's methods and when I finally mustered the courage to trade again, I increased my account by 4% in one day by trading a pin bar on a 4 our chart. Obviously, I risked less now in each trade. (Hmm.. I guess my traumatic loss has taught me something positive. But the heck, the scars still burn

But after that 4% increase (thanks to the pinbar), I can no longer muster enough courage to place another trade. So I am currently doing my homework by studying some more. I actually learned of Strat and this thread way before I began trading live, but the 15 min chart seemed to make money materialize faster. But now, Im determined to go to a higher TF because the 15m is too stressful and hm... deadly.

I have read a sizeable portion of this thread and the related contents in J16, and I am currenty demo trading the things I have picked so far. When I get confident with my ability again, I'll go back to live trading.

SO there guys, that's my story and the beginning of walk in Strat's path.

@Naws, I want to send you an email because I want to register to The Path. But since I am just a Junior Member, am I allowed to send you an email? Thanks NAws, Im hoping for your response!

BTW, I am just 21, is it too late to have a reasonable mastery of Forex?

I'm thinking it's like an engineering degree that must be started at around 18 yrs old in order to graduate on time.

Please share your thoughts.
  • #13,385
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:58am Aug 3, 2010 6:58am
Quoting GibsonL6
The EURCHF pair : Big Boss is up.... NOW
This is how the Big Boss looked at 22.07. When you say "Big Boss is up... NOW" you look at the unfinished green candle?

I just cant ignore the big red candle previous to the unfinished currently green candle.
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  • #13,386
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:04am Aug 3, 2010 7:04am
Quoting hcristea
This is how the Big Boss looked at 22.07. When you say "Big Boss is up... NOW" you look at the unfinished green candle?

I just cant ignore the big red candle previous to the unfinished currently green candle.
But the current candle which is green gives the "immediate" trend as up, and the "immediate" trend for the Boss & Worker is also up? The "overall" trend is still down on the Big Boss & Boss.
  • #13,387
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:11am Aug 3, 2010 7:11am
Quoting kalvind
But the current candle which is green gives the "immediate" trend as up, and the "immediate" trend for the Boss & Worker is also up? The "overall" trend is still down on the Big Boss & Boss.
How do you define "immediate"? The trade was put in July, and the July candle wasn't completed. If I'd use immediate for any unfinished candle then during the the day the worker might have the immediate trend bearish, a couple of hours bullish and so on.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #13,388
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:29am Aug 3, 2010 7:29am
Quoting GibsonL6
What Strat is saying, is we need to focus on what is happening NOW (IMMEDIATE) not what happened last month or last year, thats all history.

The EURCHF pair :...
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this.

All depends on the tf I guess, and I tend to look further out than NOW - thats just noise IMHO.
  • #13,389
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:39am Aug 3, 2010 7:39am
Quoting stewrigh
Only if you look at the immediate trend and give more weight to the worker.
You can only trade the IMMEDIATE trend you *@#*"*, how can you trade a trend that is 2 weeks or 2 months away.

This is my last post on this subject.

Why do you think I disagreed with your short position?

I will take your money every time, thank you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,390
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:01am Aug 3, 2010 8:01am
As you all know from my privious post that I was waiting for the pair to make HH above 137. It went above 137 made HH pulled back and gave me price action off 20(yes Strat I use MAs) on friday. Since then I am long. Target for others is 140 but I will be out soon.
  • #13,391
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:37am Aug 3, 2010 8:37am
Quoting strat
You can only trade the IMMEDIATE trend you *@#*"*, how can you trade a trend that is 2 weeks or 2 months away.

This is my last post on this subject.

Why do you think I disagreed with your short position?

I will take your money every time, thank you!
Not mine you won't I'm flat until the trend(DOWN) resumes.

Why do ppl always get upset when they lose the argument I wonder.
  • #13,392
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:39am Aug 3, 2010 8:39am
Quoting simpleman
As you all know from my privious post that I was waiting for the pair to make HH above 137. It went above 137 made HH pulled back and gave me price action off 20(yes Strat I use MAs) on friday. Since then I am long. Target for others is 140 but I will be out soon.
Well done that was an excellent CT trade but personally I find picking tops and bottoms against the trend a bit of a mugs game.
  • #13,393
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:48am Aug 3, 2010 8:48am
Quoting stewrigh
Well done that was an excellent CT trade but personally I find picking tops and bottoms against the trend a bit of a mugs game.
Check you chart it wasn't bottom pick and it wasn't CT. Just look at your worker. You will have to draw a line somewhere to end the trend. What is going down will not keep goin down forever. If a pair has moved down 4000pips and wants to retrace 50% which is 2000 pips do you not want to be on that ride.

Another point is I wouldn't go short on this pair as it is going against SNB. What me and other traders have done is gone with SNB.
  • #13,394
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:04am Aug 3, 2010 9:04am
Ok guys - I know I'm being anal, but one last chart then I'm done.

Price has retraced this much and more in the past.


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  • #13,395
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:12am Aug 3, 2010 9:12am
Quoting simpleman
Check you chart it wasn't bottom pick and it wasn't CT. Just look at your worker. You will have to draw a line somewhere to end the trend. What is going down will not keep goin down forever. If a pair has moved down 4000pips and wants to retrace 50% which is 2000 pips do you not want to be on that ride.

Another point is I wouldn't go short on this pair as it is going against SNB. What me and other traders have done is gone with SNB.


SNB stopped intervening in May and actually even the SNB will lose if the market wants to push this down(as BOE found out).
  • #13,396
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:09pm Aug 3, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting stewrigh
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SNB stopped intervening in May and actually even the SNB will lose if the market wants to push this down(as BOE found out).
Yes they may have stopped because they have hired big boys and big boys are doing the job for them.
  • #13,397
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:19pm Aug 3, 2010 1:19pm
Hi Strat,

Thank you again Strat for another lesson. May I present charts.
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  • #13,398
  • Aug 3, 2010 2:16pm Aug 3, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thank you again Strat for another lesson. May I present charts.
Patrick I missed that one, makes so much sense.

Frank
  • #13,399
  • Aug 3, 2010 2:40pm Aug 3, 2010 2:40pm
Waiting for the pull back to 162 with PA to go long. Don't tell me it is downtrend please.
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  • #13,400
  • Aug 3, 2010 3:32pm Aug 3, 2010 3:32pm
Good evening everybody, Strat

AUDJPY looks appealing this week. Green TL turned from R to S.
Will try Longs above 78.5.

Thank you

R.
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