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  • #7,581
  • Aug 3, 2010 3:29am Aug 3, 2010 3:29am
Thanks, Custos

I probably will take this one short later today,
Nice setup

Cheers
Andreas

Quoting Custos
God, I love this forum, cause everybody has a different opinion on a setup. Very thought provoking, which analysis is correct.

I personally am looking for a short right now. I think the level gbp/cad went into as a resistance level. Also a trendline is coming down from the weekly...

I think you are falling into a newbie trap. You really have to zoom out to see the whole price action. Your zoomed in chart does not have enough information to base any (good) decisions on.

hope that helps
  • #7,582
  • Aug 3, 2010 3:52am Aug 3, 2010 3:52am
Filled on a GC Sell Limit at 1.6350 right at the bottom of my S/R zone drawn on Daily chart. Should be good for at least the neighborhood of 1.5450.
  • #7,583
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:03am Aug 3, 2010 4:03am
Quoting Abinadi
Filled on a GC Sell Limit at 1.6350 right at the bottom of my S/R zone drawn on Daily chart. Should be good for at least the neighborhood of 1.5450.
yep, should work out. May I ask, where do you have your stop?

For me it's still too early to enter, middle of london.
  • #7,584
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:34am Aug 3, 2010 4:34am
Quoting Custos
God, I love this forum, cause everybody has a different opinion on a setup. Very thought provoking, which analysis is correct.

I personally am looking for a short right now. I think the level gbp/cad went into as a resistance level. Also a trendline is coming down from the weekly...

I think you are falling into a newbie trap. You really have to zoom out to see the whole price action. Your zoomed in chart does not have enough information to base any (good) decisions on.

hope that helps
Always good to discuss set ups. I see your point, Custos, still in the trade though. Need to analyze what to do, will take your advice under consideration, however, I believe that the resistance level have been broken and therefore gbpcad can continue moving up.
  • #7,585
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:35am Aug 3, 2010 4:35am
Quoting Custos
yep, should work out. May I ask, where do you have your stop?

For me it's still too early to enter, middle of london.
Usually trade without an entered stop. Hate to be swept up by the hedge funds. Planned for breathing room on this one is the top of my S/R zone of 1.6400B + spread + small FF (fudge factor).

Catastrophic/mental stop (for an unattended trade) is 1.6565, but I really am not in trading to lose to stops. Just pick my entries very selectively. And if it goes against me, that's OK because I have confidence in my direction. I give it room to breathe so it is free to threaten me all it wants.

I monitored this one very close for the first hour (in at 02:40 GMT-5) and now with the tweezers setup on the H1 with a beautiful bearish engulfing C/s and the H4 then showing a 50% pin bar, I'll be in for the long haul on this one and let it run for awhile. Shorter term, it should be good for the 1.6020 level. Any longer than that, I'll just have to see.
  • #7,586
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:38am Aug 3, 2010 4:38am
Quoting annis
Always good to discuss set ups. I see your point, Custos, still in the trade though. Need to analyze what to do, will take your advice under consideration, however, I believe that the resistance level have been broken and therefore gbpcad can continue moving up.
that is exactly what I wanna hear. Best to trust your own analysis . Cause that's the only way to develop as a trader: lots of analysis and trial & error.

cheers
  • #7,587
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:45am Aug 3, 2010 4:45am
Quoting Abinadi
Usually trade without an entered stop. Hate to be swept up by the hedge funds. Planned for breathing room on this one is the top of my S/R zone of 1.6400B + spread + small FF (fudge factor).

Catastrophic/mental stop (for an unattended trade) is 1.6565, but I really am not in trading to lose to stops. Just pick my entries very selectively. And if it goes against me, that's OK because I have confidence in my direction. I give it room to breathe so it is free to threaten me all it wants.

I monitored this one very close for the first hour (in at 02:40...
hm, okay, if it works for you without a stop then that's good. I personally don't enter without a stoploss (destroyed my first account by trading without stops) .
But I agree, gbp/cad should go down soon.

cheers
  • #7,588
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:49am Aug 3, 2010 4:49am
Quoting Custos
hm, okay, if it works for you without a stop then that's good. I personally don't enter without a stoploss (destroyed my first account by trading without stops) .
But I agree, gbp/cad should go down soon.

cheers
I understand. It's not for everyone. I sure don't try to convince others to trade the way I do. But it works well for me.

Have a great night.
  • #7,589
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:11am Aug 3, 2010 6:11am
What do you make of usdjpy? It has moved down all day and is now at a low previously almost unseen (during autumn and also way back in time it's been lower).
I expect that this historical low will hold, hence it will start moving up sometime soon.
  • #7,590
  • Aug 3, 2010 6:24am Aug 3, 2010 6:24am
Quoting annis
What do you make of usdjpy? It has moved down all day and is now at a low previously almost unseen (during autumn and also way back in time it's been lower).
I expect that this historical low will hold, hence it will start moving up sometime soon.
I am also aware that we are reaching a low, but as long as it doesn't show any sign of reversal, I am still short-biased.
  • #7,591
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:05am Aug 3, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Custos
hm, okay, if it works for you without a stop then that's good. I personally don't enter without a stoploss (destroyed my first account by trading without stops) .

cheers
Agree there .... trading without stop loss, for any justification, catches up sooner or later. After listening to quite a few professional traders my major conclusion was to never trade without a hard stop in place.
  • #7,592
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:45am Aug 3, 2010 8:45am
Quoting MktScape
Agree there .... trading without stop loss, for any justification, catches up sooner or later. After listening to quite a few professional traders my major conclusion was to never trade without a hard stop in place.
I know two very large high rollers who only use a hard stop in their head, but they also have such size that a single hard stop wouldn't be viable. If you are giving your trade room, it is fine not leaving a hard stop with the assumption you are able to monitor the trade at all times. I'm sure there are some who have an always-in system where their exit is the directional reversal. The suggestions you see from those 'professional's' are made as newbies generally don't know anything about position or money management to protect them.
  • #7,593
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:54am Aug 3, 2010 8:54am
Quoting randomperson
I know two very large high rollers who only use a hard stop in their head, but they also have such size that a single hard stop wouldn't be viable. If you are giving your trade room, it is fine not leaving a hard stop with the assumption you are able to monitor the trade at all times. I'm sure there are some who have an always-in system where their exit is the directional reversal. The suggestions you see from those 'professional's' are made as newbies generally don't know anything about position or money management to protect them.
You are right ...for newbies there shouldnt be any wayout without it, even lot of professionals wouldnt still go without a hard SL however some of the highly experienced professionals may use mental stops in their strategy, which in my opinion not everyones cup of tea.
  • #7,594
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:20am Aug 3, 2010 9:20am
Guys, are you on EU, GU and AU?
It looks these pairs are ripe

Cheers
Andreas
  • #7,595
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:24am Aug 3, 2010 9:24am
Quoting AndreasF
Guys, are you on EU, GU and AU?
It looks these pairs are ripe

Cheers
Andreas
I have my orders in place for these pairs, waiting to see if they get executed.
  • #7,596
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:28am Aug 3, 2010 9:28am
Quoting AndreasF
Guys, are you on EU, GU and AU?
It looks these pairs are ripe

Cheers
Andreas
I hope you mean they are ripe to go long at

hehe, Look at my charts, first is eur/usd daily, second is gbp/usd daily.
We just broke through resistance, now it's likely price will test it as support. I would now only be looking for a long when price is retracing.
Maybe later price falls through support again, but right now it is not wise to go short, at least I am not going to do that.

Moral of the story, don't always try to catch reversals, try to catch pullbacks in direction of the prevailing trend, that is most of the time more profitable.

cheers

EDIT: Again this is just my opinion, please guys, do your own analysis, and try to trade it. my analysis is also not always correct.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.8.2010 eurusd d1.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.8.2010 gbpusd d1.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,597
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:43am Aug 3, 2010 9:43am
Hi Custos

Thanks for your reply and your explanations -very interesting and helpful.
However I'm already short EU Sam Seiden's style...
Price re-visited the origin of the breakout.

Let's see what happens

Cheers
Andreas

Quoting Custos
I hope you mean they are ripe to go long at

hehe, Look at my charts, first is eur/usd daily, second is gbp/usd daily.
We just broke through resistance, now it's likely price will test it as support. I would now only be looking for a long when price is retracing.
Maybe later price falls through support again, but right now it is not wise to go short, at least I am not going to do that.

Moral of the story, don't always try to catch reversals, try to catch pullbacks in direction of the prevailing trend, that is most of the time more profitable....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu d1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #7,598
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:45am Aug 3, 2010 9:45am
Quoting AndreasF
Hi Custos

Thanks for your reply and your explanations -very interesting and helpful.
However I'm already short EU Sam Seiden's style...
Price re-visited the origin of the breakout.

Let's see what happens

Cheers
Andreas
yep, let's see what happens, I hope it works out for you.
  • #7,599
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:46am Aug 3, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Custos
I hope you mean they are ripe to go long at

hehe, Look at my charts, first is eur/usd daily, second is gbp/usd daily.
We just broke through resistance, now it's likely price will test it as support. I would now only be looking for a long when price is retracing.
Maybe later price falls through support again, but right now it is not wise to go short, at least I am not going to do that.

Moral of the story, don't always try to catch reversals, try to catch pullbacks in direction of the prevailing trend, that is most of the time more profitable....
I think thats a very important lesson to remember and it came at a right time.I would look to add a couple of additional rules to counter this sort of siuation next time it arises.

One important factor is to establish early that a strong up/down trend is in progress .... i think, once price reverses and cross the last down/up wave pullback and holds above it the the trend bias should be changed and one should start looking for trades in trend direction.

Also, one should notice if price has been respecting previous levels and how were the reactions? If not then dont go for reversal against the trend?


Custos ...what do you say?
  • #7,600
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:58am Aug 3, 2010 9:58am
Quoting MktScape
I think thats a very important lesson to remember and it came at a right time.I would look to add a couple of additional rules to counter this sort of siuation next time it arises.

One important factor is to establish early that a strong up/down trend is in progress .... i think, once price reverses and cross the last down/up wave pullback and holds above it the the trend bias should be changed and one should start looking for trades in trend direction.

Also, one should notice if price has been respecting previous levels and how were the reactions?...
hm, yes, that's a good "guideline". I say guideline here, because I would say trend change is always a grey area. Sometimes it's easier to recognise a trend-change than other times. So, yes, a good guideline.
Anyways, everything in trading should just be a guideline, those hard rules almost always have lots of exceptions.

Yeah, the second rule / guideline is also important I think, it comes down to historical significance again. We need to see how people reacted in the past to "predict" how they could act in the future.

good rules mktscape
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