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AUD/USD

  • #22,521
  • Aug 2, 2010 8:01pm Aug 2, 2010 8:01pm
The RBA is expected not to raise interest rates, but just a week earlier they were expected to raise interest rates. The bias is to NOT raise, because historically with an election coming up they have not raised rates prior to the election.

I'm still trying to figure out why the AUD is stable and rising. Perhaps it's merely hope. The Liberal party has gained pts in the poles, but the bookies are still aiming for a Labor party win. When that win does come in, that's when you can expect the AUD to come down.
  • #22,522
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:39pm Aug 2, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
The RBA is expected not to raise interest rates, but just a week earlier they were expected to raise interest rates. The bias is to NOT raise, because historically with an election coming up they have not raised rates prior to the election.

I'm still trying to figure out why the AUD is stable and rising. Perhaps it's merely hope. The Liberal party has gained pts in the poles, but the bookies are still aiming for a Labor party win. When that win does come in, that's when you can expect the AUD to come down.
perhaps its the 7% debt to gdp .. the shear stability the ability for it to fight through economic cycles without printing free money at .25% creating huge boom and bust cycles using AET.. maybe its the fact that its a commodities based island whose dirt is red with all the iron mixed in with it.. and they cant load ships from china fast enough with the commodities and the rising prices due to huge demand = more revenues meaning stronger currencies... dunno tho its a mystery.
  • #22,523
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:02am Aug 3, 2010 12:02am
Quoting TheTopBloke
The RBA is expected not to raise interest rates, but just a week earlier they were expected to raise interest rates. The bias is to NOT raise, because historically with an election coming up they have not raised rates prior to the election.

I'm still trying to figure out why the AUD is stable and rising. Perhaps it's merely hope. The Liberal party has gained pts in the poles, but the bookies are still aiming for a Labor party win. When that win does come in, that's when you can expect the AUD to come down.
Much of the rise in the AUDUSD has been from USD weakness versus really everything. Overall, over the past couple of weeks the AUD has been stable relative to EUR, GBP.

AUDUSD is right now a purely technical play in my opinion. We've been trapped in an ascending wedge for the past 5 weeks. I am except a breakout downward soon. Highest we're going is .92 IMHO. We may have already seen the top to this rally though.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,524
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:32am Aug 3, 2010 12:32am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Much of the rise in the AUDUSD has been from USD weakness versus really everything. Overall, over the past couple of weeks the AUD has been stable relative to EUR, GBP.

AUDUSD is right now a purely technical play in my opinion. We've been trapped in an ascending wedge for the past 5 weeks. I am except a breakout downward soon. Highest we're going is .92 IMHO. We may have already seen the top to this rally though.

true that, i think is only left with tmr retail sales, plus usd/cad seems like have reached to the lowest point like a few months ago.

good trading mister~
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #22,525
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:35am Aug 3, 2010 12:35am
Quoting mry2001
in next 2 months

i do hope for ealier, time knows, but seems like hong kong has almost reach to extreme

good trading mister~
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #22,526
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:17am Aug 3, 2010 1:17am
Preferred. Looking to test .9400 retest of old daily resistance.
Quoting learntowin
TKS,

As Long As 0.8905 holds


The Trend is Still Bias to the UpSide


Prefer Buying @ Dips
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,527
  • Aug 3, 2010 4:35am Aug 3, 2010 4:35am
Quoting learntowin
Booked Profit

AUD/USD Long @ 0.9130 for + 110 Pips

EUR/USD Long @ 1.3170 for + 100 pips

Will wait for another Re-Entry later


Still keep

USD / CHF Short @ 1.0410
Book Profit

USD / CHF Short @ 1.0370 for + 40 pips

Will wait for another Re-Entry later
  • #22,528
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:21am Aug 3, 2010 9:21am
seeing rising wedge and long runup. took profits yesterday at 9120 and shorted today at 91 on intrest rate news + down day (-1.71%) in Shanghai. Seeing bear divergence on stos.

Not expecting big retrace at this time.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #22,529
  • Aug 3, 2010 11:57am Aug 3, 2010 11:57am
Maybe its time to consider Selling AUD / USD for ST Pull Back


Try 1 Short @ 0.9135
  • #22,530
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:00pm Aug 3, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting learntowin
Maybe its time to consider Selling AUD / USD for ST Pull Back


Try 1 Short AUD / USD @ 0.9135
Try 1 Short EUR / USD @ 1.3230

Try 1 long USD / CHF @ 1.0370
  • #22,531
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:33am Aug 4, 2010 11:33am
Quoting learntowin
Try 1 Short EUR / USD @ 1.3230

Try 1 long USD / CHF @ 1.0370

Booked Profit

EUR / USD Short @ 1.3160 for 70 pips

USD / CHF Long @ 1.0515 for 145 pips
  • #22,532
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:35pm Aug 4, 2010 1:35pm
I'm long @ 0.9133. I count one more push to 0.9300 before reversal. Weekly Aud/Usd shows (to me anyway) a broadening triangle with a top of the range in the 0.9310 - 0.9330 zone. I've always treated broadening triangles as tops, not continuations. What kills me about this zone is that I cannot, for the life of me, find a Fib. retracement or projection from the lows that works for the current price range. This has me worried a bit.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #22,533
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:29pm Aug 4, 2010 2:29pm
Ok, I've got shorts in place. Stop is at .9188 - Down around 30 pips at the moment. This 4HR divergence is giving us a clue. Just look at the last time this happened, dropped 500 pips. This divergence is larger and over a longer period of time. Call me crazy but I think we'll see a 1000 pip fall this month. - if not...stops are in place.
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  • #22,534
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:48pm Aug 4, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Phonetic
Ok, I've got shorts in place. Stop is at .9188 - Down around 30 pips at the moment. This 4HR divergence is giving us a clue. Just look at the last time this happened, dropped 500 pips. This divergence is larger and over a longer period of time. Call me crazy but I think we'll see a 1000 pip fall this month. - if not...stops are in place.
Yes, we'll see this retest .80 zone by Sept.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,535
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:17pm Aug 4, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting Phonetic
Ok, I've got shorts in place. Stop is at .9188 - Down around 30 pips at the moment. This 4HR divergence is giving us a clue. Just look at the last time this happened, dropped 500 pips. This divergence is larger and over a longer period of time. Call me crazy but I think we'll see a 1000 pip fall this month. - if not...stops are in place.

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roger you, just took a short 9170.....DTL near 9300 worries me, but daily bat pattern complete off wkly R2 near 9187....cold comfort? AUDCHF on similiar pattern with this run up today

wonder how the elections will rock the pair
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #22,536
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:26pm Aug 4, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting archimede
Attachment


roger you, just took a short 9170.....DTL near 9300 worries me, but daily bat pattern complete off wkly R2 near 9187....cold comfort? AUDCHF on similiar pattern with this run up today

wonder how the elections will rock the pair
Where you starting your TL? 4HR, Daily, and Weekly charts below:

Edit: I don't know why that "Monday 15th March 2010" label is there
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  • #22,537
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:42pm Aug 4, 2010 3:42pm
Quoting Phonetic
Where you starting your TL?
only have the DTL off the april top.....i see where yours is frm nov 09 top, lining up to this 9187 area

now thats cold comfort

still the swissy bounce today did nothing to AU, i guess couple of rate decisions and claims data tomorrow dictates the move up 9300 or dwn 8900

rgds and green pips to you
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #22,538
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:53pm Aug 4, 2010 3:53pm
We will probably see the current bubble continue for a week at most. It will burst very qucikly.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,539
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:57pm Aug 4, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
We will probably see the current bubble continue for a week at most. It will burst very qucikly.
I had these orders in last time before we fell last month. I took them out when I slept...the fall started, and didn't stop. Looking for that to happen again, but now my orders will stay when I sleep...
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  • #22,540
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:01pm Aug 4, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting archimede
only have the DTL off the april top.....i see where yours is frm nov 09 top, lining up to this 9187 area

now thats cold comfort

still the swissy bounce today did nothing to AU, i guess couple of rate decisions and claims data tomorrow dictates the move up 9300 or dwn 8900

rgds and green pips to you
Depending on what timeframe I am on when I draw that TL, it varies about 30 pips. If I draw it on the Daily zoomed out, I get the 9187 area. if I do it on the monthly, its at 9150. We'll see soon...

green pips to you as well
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