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  • #13,961
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:38am Jul 29, 2010 6:38am
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Gone to a better place
  • #13,962
  • Jul 29, 2010 9:46pm Jul 29, 2010 9:46pm
A couple of eye openers.
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  • #13,963
  • Edited 5:03pm Aug 1, 2010 4:31pm | Edited 5:03pm
Next R level is 113.25 but the strongest levels are up at 114.74 (previous weeks' high) and 115.50 (R3 and TL convergence possibly midweek, Aug 3 Frankfurt open 11pm PT?) .

If Euro opens stronger I'd expect up to 100 to 200 pips rise from current 112.88 before a reversal/retrace.

I'm going to probably watch price action at 113.25 and 113.73 (62% of previous weeks' H/L and R1 using pivot formula) and/or maybe wait until 114.74 and/or 115.50 to short with a first target of 113.00 and a subsequent target of 112.00, possibly 110.02.

If opens lower today then the lower end target for a bounce to go long is 112.03 (S1) based on previous session low (or on the associated 112.03 TL), and/or 111.35 if not 110.02 (previous weekly low and S3) if price breaks lower.

Hey, now I sound like every other analyst out there! :-) Whaddya guys and gals think?
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  • #13,964
  • Aug 1, 2010 5:54pm Aug 1, 2010 5:54pm
I think you need more lines on your chart.

And I'd look for other pairs to trade than EJ right now. If you look on the daily timeframe, it seems to be consolidating while still in a downtrend. On H4 and H1 it's a mess right now. Not anything I'd call a No Brainer going on at the moment.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #13,965
  • Aug 1, 2010 7:02pm Aug 1, 2010 7:02pm
I agree about the mess. That's what happens when EU and UJ go in opposite directions. I only look at EJ, EU and UJ because I am trying to become very familiar with the price action. I know I am missing out on many other pairs but I hope that being able to have a wide consensus of opinion and knowing the price action very well will be an edge.

Here's a better one.

The UJ consensus is bearish so maybe I will short from yesterdays' high of 86.96 if price action confirms that.

Some are calling the next drop a pretty steep one.
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  • #13,966
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:51am Aug 2, 2010 2:51am
Quoting Siam
A couple of eye openers.

Hi,

Nice bounce on the swissy (closed) and cable has just came to my R line for a short.
  • #13,967
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:40am Aug 2, 2010 6:40am
Just saw that on the daily chart of gbp/usd.

Would you sell right away or wait for confirmation. I have my difficulties with longer term s/r-levels because they tend to overshoot a lot. How would you trade this one?
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  • #13,968
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:28am Aug 2, 2010 10:28am
Popped right through it.

The 5 Min Chart shows how it goes right through it and uses the s/r-level as support now.

I wonder if Steve would have played a sell. I didn´t, dont know how to play the dailies.
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  • #13,969
  • Aug 2, 2010 6:43pm Aug 2, 2010 6:43pm
Hi,

Yep went straight through. i'm not sure how BRV would of played it but that was a hell of a big R line. Sometimes just gotta take it on the chin, there are always other trades.
  • #13,970
  • Aug 3, 2010 12:49am Aug 3, 2010 12:49am
One of Steve´s criteria if a level will hold or not is this one:

If price has already undergone a significant retracement not too far away (20 or less pips appx.) from the level we want to trade. For instance, EUR/USD is in an uptrend. You mark a level at 1.5715. It hits 1.5700 and then retraces down to 1.5670, and then starts coming up again, taking out 1.5700. Your chances of price then making another retracement from 1.5715 have now declined. Look for good spacing between pullbacks, usually anywhere from 40-60 pips on majors.

Could someone give a live example of what ist meant by that? I dont fully understand this concept.
  • #13,971
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:27pm Aug 3, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting Dhb
I think you need more lines on your chart.

And I'd look for other pairs to trade than EJ right now. If you look on the daily timeframe, it seems to be consolidating while still in a downtrend. On H4 and H1 it's a mess right now. Not anything I'd call a No Brainer going on at the moment.
No lines, no trade;-)

I go back and forth thinking about trading other pairs that give better value and better technical chart reads but
A-I'm used to E/J and there's lots of analysis so I can get a wide consensus in addition to my own predictive theory of the days' pricing action (ie, S123/R123/pivots/H/L and key S/R I see on the chart, especially in prior session.........ie; the H/L for Tokyp guides London, the H/L for London guides the overlap, etc)
B-EJ typically does go to the pip on the S123/R123 levels

My (almost) final step in this journey is calm precise execution.
  • #13,972
  • Aug 3, 2010 9:31pm Aug 3, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting Wallboroff
One of Steve´s criteria if a level will hold or not is this one:

If price has already undergone a significant retracement not too far away (20 or less pips appx.) from the level we want to trade. For instance, EUR/USD is in an uptrend. You mark a level at 1.5715. It hits 1.5700 and then retraces down to 1.5670, and then starts coming up again, taking out 1.5700. Your chances of price then making another retracement from 1.5715 have now declined. Look for good spacing between pullbacks, usually anywhere from 40-60 pips on majors.

Could someone...
Steve's theory is the strongest and longest fades will occur at strong levels that were support AND resistance MONTHS ago. Theory is that the longer the time between levels getting hit, the stronger the bounce and more likely the level will hold.
  • #13,973
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:41am Aug 4, 2010 1:41am
Quoting watchtower4x
Steve's theory is the strongest and longest fades will occur at strong levels that were support AND resistance MONTHS ago. Theory is that the longer the time between levels getting hit, the stronger the bounce and more likely the level will hold.
sorry man, but have you actually read what i wrote? the question was about the retracements.
  • #13,974
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:35am Aug 4, 2010 3:35am
Quoting watchtower4x
No lines, no trade;-)

I go back and forth thinking about trading other pairs that give better value and better technical chart reads but
A-I'm used to E/J and there's lots of analysis so I can get a wide consensus in addition to my own predictive theory of the days' pricing action (ie, S123/R123/pivots/H/L and key S/R I see on the chart, especially in prior session.........ie; the H/L for Tokyp guides London, the H/L for London guides the overlap, etc)
B-EJ typically does go to the pip on the S123/R123 levels

My (almost) final step in this journey...


That's right. My favorite pair, but for some time there is no no brainers there. the only one actually was last week. 113.46 last week took long as it was previous few weeks high that got broken and it worked like a charm. now back into consolidation.
  • #13,975
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:16am Aug 4, 2010 4:16am
I think what Steve meant is the following:

Looking at the chart below, let's assume you had reason to believe that EU would move down after hitting the indicated zone 1.2737-73. As you can see, it didn't reach that area, but made a significant retracement from a level just below our entry zone.

Now, when such a thing happens, you shouldn't try to fade this area once price reaches it again. Chances are that it will not retrace and move further upward. As you can see in the indicated ellipse, when EU got to our "fade zone" of 1.2737-73 again, it hesitated a little, but then moved right through it.

That's what I think Steve was talking about.

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #13,976
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:21am Aug 4, 2010 4:21am
Quoting Dhb
I think what Steve meant is the following:

Looking at the chart below, let's assume you had reason to believe that EU would move down after hitting the indicated zone 1.2737-73. As you can see, it didn't reach that area, but made a significant retracement from a level just below our entry zone.

Now, when such a thing happens, you shouldn't try to fade this area once price reaches it again. Chances are that it will not retrace and move further upward. As you can see in the indicated ellipse, when EU got to our "fade zone" of 1.2737-73 again,...
Thanks for the answer and the illustration.
  • #13,977
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:29am Aug 4, 2010 4:29am
Would you have traded the eur/usd? There were news for gbp 10:30 (gmt +1) and 11:00 (gmt +1) for the euro.
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  • #13,978
  • Aug 4, 2010 5:45am Aug 4, 2010 5:45am
Quoting Dhb
I think what Steve meant is the following:

Looking at the chart below, let's assume you had reason to believe that EU would move down after hitting the indicated zone 1.2737-73. As you can see, it didn't reach that area, but made a significant retracement from a level just below our entry zone.

Now, when such a thing happens, you shouldn't try to fade this area once price reaches it again. Chances are that it will not retrace and move further upward. As you can see in the indicated ellipse, when EU got to our "fade zone" of 1.2737-73 again,...

I think that Steve's example is about going against the trend. In this case you are trying to trade along the trend so it is not applied same way as against the trend.
  • #13,979
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:20pm Aug 4, 2010 4:20pm
I'm sorry if I've inadvertently created a misunderstanding. In my example I meant taking a short in E/U, which was trending upward at the time (unless that's where we differ in opinion).

In my book shorting a pair that is trending up would be fading the trend, as would be taking a long when a pair is trending down. So that would be what Steve was talking about, wouldn't it?
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #13,980
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:34pm Aug 4, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Dhb
I'm sorry if I've inadvertently created a misunderstanding. In my example I meant taking a short in E/U, which was trending upward at the time (unless that's where we differ in opinion).

In my book shorting a pair that is trending up would be fading the trend, as would be taking a long when a pair is trending down. So that would be what Steve was talking about, wouldn't it?
Yes, I am sure it is what he actually means.
My experience generally shows that hit rate when going along the trend is much higher than when taking contra trend trades. It is also much safer and I can use more leverage actually.
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