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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #15,441
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:15pm Jul 30, 2010 8:15pm
Quoting feb2865
A realistic feedback would be none of the above.

In my experience statistics + trading don't match.

I don't like to use the word random 'cause some people are kinda sensitive on that word. But markets are some sort of "organized chaos" in my opinion. You need to take what the market gives. You could have a week 9 out on 10 winners, the other one could be 5-5 etc.

People try to predict the markets. It's more profitable to react.

The only route to profit is be there to capitalize on the opportunity and manage your losses to keep them in...
thanks for the reply feb. not to try to piss off anybody. but i just want to ask one more similar question. as u can see from my info. i am in hong kong. the best time frame for me is the new york open (that would be 8 or 9pm/hkt.) cuz i have a day job. if, (as you said at some point in this thread i recall), that i take the first swing of the session, wait for the pullback, and when it resumes it's initial direction a couple pips above or below the previous high or low, i enter. always setting profit to 20 pips and stop loss at 10 (more or less your setup from the earlier pages on this thread), and i do this for one year. let's say that's 300 trades. would you say i would win about half the time? or are you still leaning towards that nobody could say for sure and that i would win anywhere between 80-> 200 of those trades. you said in your reply to me, u gave numbers like 10 wins, 9 losses, or 5 wins 5 losses. since every win is double of each loss. i calculated even 10 wins in every 24 tries would would be extremely profitable. i mean nearly to the tone that i can quit my dayjob.
  • #15,442
  • Jul 31, 2010 1:16am Jul 31, 2010 1:16am
Hi chiba san,
... firstly, I've to say, that I don't have intention to upset you in any way, nor to kill your dreams, but
I don't re-call anything like a 10-pips stop-loss anywhere in Feb's thread (not in this ... and not in the others as well)
So, your assumption based on R/R 2:1 and 80 --> 200 winers over 300 trades is totally wrong and unrealistic ...
and instead quiting the current day-job ... you'll need some additional job, just to cover your quickly disappearing account.

Cheers,
  • #15,443
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:19am Jul 31, 2010 6:19am
Quoting chiba_san
thanks for the reply feb. not to try to piss off anybody. but i just want to ask one more similar question....
don't dwell that much into numbers. Once you're in a trade there's nothing you can do. The numbers I gave out are just an example of a possible scenario. You just put the effort in the process of making(trading) and let the results come by itself.
Peace
  • #15,444
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:21am Jul 31, 2010 6:21am
Quoting feb2865
Thanks to all of you who have inquired about my health. My recovery is positive and my prognosis looks very good. I am still on chemo.
I retired from this site because I feel like I gave so much for the community and everybody flocked away from my forums. So I thought that people don't need my assistance anymore. I am ok with that....
Hello my dear friend,

I am having a "little trading vacation" here, but I have just seen you posted again, and I couldn't let this occasion past to say you hello....

I am really glad to read that things are working nicely for you on your full health recovery and that it keeps on getting better and better
You are one of those persons that really deserve it with all the good karma and nice atmosphere that you always bring everywhere you are...

"So I thought that people don't need my assistance anymore"
I don't think this is correct at all Feb..... you perfectly know that every single word of wisdom you drop on any place is likely to be read, and re-read many times for a big crowd that respects you and your teachings so much....

Really happy to see you around again and hoping to see you more, which would be a nice sign.....
All my good karma for you buddy, to go through that health fake out and come on top..... I am totally sure you will...
  • #15,445
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:23am Jul 31, 2010 6:23am
Quoting StoragePro
Glad you are feeling better....
I don't understand what youre trying to say.
About statistics and what happens next - I don't believe in any of them..
Peace
  • #15,446
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:46am Jul 31, 2010 6:46am
Hi Feb or other senior System II ers;

Based on friday’s martket, would these 2 setup and expectancy be valid ways to skin the cat (afterward thinking)? Because I was in the bear down position, and supposed to see more retrace, so I did not pull trigger on the possible long entry (my personal view).

Please correct me if I’m wrong.

First possible long entry (please refer to my chart), after twice rejection against level 5, Would it worth to try this long or not? Because it’s just after 100 pips bear down move and the market was in bearish mood, I did not take this trade, because of this reason.

Second possible short entry (please refer to my chart), after rejection against of level 2, and the entry could to the close of first bear candle.

Both cases would need to trailing stop hardly, cause in counter-trend.

Many thanks
And have a nice weekend all.
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  • #15,447
  • Jul 31, 2010 7:47am Jul 31, 2010 7:47am
Quoting tommybqhuang
Hi Feb or other senior System II ers;...
Hi Tommy,

I'm not a senior but I would like to give my opinion...
I didn't take those trades but looking at your chart for sure I would have taken the long because it's a good setup... double reject...near an important level 1.3 (FCR setup ? ). It's a good trade in my humble opinion. For the short, it's too much aggressive for me (I respect all who took it, may be this is the most important thing I learnt about trading). We are on a 5M timeframe and we need a confirmation in my mind (pullback etc.) to enter a trade like that. Which is the trigger which made you think about taking that short ?

U
  • #15,448
  • Jul 31, 2010 8:09am Jul 31, 2010 8:09am
Quoting feb2865
This market = summer .Volume decrease on the bank's books.
Thanks. I agree, in summer better to stay at the beach.
  • #15,449
  • Jul 31, 2010 1:16pm Jul 31, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting feb2865
I don't understand what youre trying to say.
About statistics and what happens next - I don't believe in any of them..
Sorry about that.

What I surmise, is that the only way to get our personal mindset in good shape to promote success (psychology, if you prefer) is to go through the act of placing many, many trades. There are no short cuts.

Many will read a book, or a post, and declare that they 'get it'. It is my continuing experience that no one 'gets it' until they've done it, and that is a long term activity.

Anyone can be handed a proven method, but without a lot of effort and practical experience, it won't work.

I'd love to be proven wrong on this, but like many, when I came to forex, I saw many sparkling systems, and thought - " if he can do it, I can too, and it won't take long at all!" Wrong.

Every real trader I know (and there are only 2 of them) have told me that there is no substitute and no short cut for building the right mentality to court success in trading. Time and experience.

Have you found this to be true, and what tips would you give to anyone looking at enduring the road ahead?
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #15,450
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:26am Aug 16, 2010 11:26am
Quoting feb2865
Thanks to all of...

Feb sir, Any word on the site mentioned? I would certainly enjoy seeing but I do not find it in google yet.
  • #15,451
  • Aug 21, 2010 1:10am Aug 21, 2010 1:10am
does anybody has the schedule for the 3rd week where all the big guys drop their options expiration calendar?
  • #15,452
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:27pm Aug 22, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
does anybody has the schedule for the 3rd week where all the big guys drop their options expiration calendar?
Yes, of course ... it's part of good trading.
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  • #15,453
  • Aug 22, 2010 11:54pm Aug 22, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting DareXau
Yes, of course ... it's part of good trading.

Thanks DareXau
  • #15,454
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:26am Aug 25, 2010 8:26am
Quoting feb2865
Thanks to all of you who have inquired about my health. My recovery is positive and my prognosis looks very good. I am still on chemo.
I retired from this site because I feel like I gave so much for the community and everybody flocked away from my forums. So I thought that people don't need my assistance anymore. I am ok with that.

On the controversy that Mr. wiztrader brings, I have never gave out authorization to anyone to put this teachings in commercial mode.

ALL the "systems" are nothing more than frameworks you need to built upon. Make...

Hi Feb ... I hope you have a speedy and successful recovery.

I cant find your website ... what is the link my friend?
  • #15,455
  • Aug 27, 2010 4:49am Aug 27, 2010 4:49am
Who else is banned from posting in the FCR thread
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #15,456
  • Aug 27, 2010 5:01am Aug 27, 2010 5:01am
Quoting narberth
Who else is banned from posting in the FCR thread
Hi Nar,

Are you sure? Why should you be banned? I haven't seen any controversial posts from you which could have caused such an action to be taken. I am sure Fxa will set the record straight and make a post at his thread and allow you the right to reply.

Bak
  • #15,457
  • Aug 27, 2010 6:07am Aug 27, 2010 6:07am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Nar,

Are you sure? Why should you be banned? I haven't seen any controversial posts from you which could have caused such an action to be taken. I am sure Fxa will set the record straight and make a post at his thread and allow you the right to reply.

Bak
The only reason I can think of is I asked him why he wasnt in the BR anymore and I accused him of taking money under false pretences if he wasnt running it any more. Oh well I have never been banned from a thread before

Nar
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #15,458
  • Aug 28, 2010 5:17pm Aug 28, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting narberth
The only reason I can think of is I asked him why he wasnt in the BR anymore and I accused him of taking money under false pretences if he wasnt running it any more. Oh well I have never been banned from a thread before

Nar
You're in good company Narbeth, I too have been barred from Fcr. Do you think my last post touched a nerve?

He had his chance, he blew it.

Game, set and match to Scubro.
  • #15,459
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:00pm Aug 29, 2010 7:00pm
Hi,
I have read whole thread and most part of the fcr thread.

Firstly thanks to feb for sharing this profitable system.

Secondly, I wonder if there are people still trading this method. Personally I'm forward testing since 2 months are results are very positive.

Thirdly, can other followers of the thread share their ideas about the problems with fxa. Actually when I was reading this thread I benefited a lot from his ideas and charts. But there has also been problems between him and Dare and PaulLangham. Their charts were also very helpful for me but in the end they left the thread. Now fxa has a paid trading room and people say results are negative. I would be glad if people who know the reality state their ideas bravely and honestly.

And it would be nice to see Dare, Paul and others posting charts again.. (if they have time for this)

Thanks..
  • #15,460
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:40am Aug 30, 2010 3:40am
Quoting doncello
Hi,
.....
Secondly, I wonder if there are people still trading this method. Personally I'm forward testing since 2 months are results are very positive.
..
here it is :

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