EUR/USD Scalp 1 min

Hi!
I'm wondering what the settings for the MML should be. I've seen on this thread anywhere from 30min to 320min. This changes the levels, so isn't it important to get the right settings?
FYI, the initial setting for "MMPeriod" for the indicator posted by Hoss early in the thread, "Murrey_Math_Line_X", is 1440 minutes. Hoss, what is yours set at?

Murrey could be what traders are wishing the fibos at shorter time frames:
http://www.foretrade.com/MM_description.htm
http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/pages/murrey.html, http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill...rey.html#links
http://www.knovamind.com/index.php?w...channel_id=248

Hope it helps

1. Line 8/8 и 0/8 (Ultimate Support and Ultimate Resistance).
Those lines are the most strong concerning Support and resistance.

2. Line 7/8 (Weak, Place to Stop and Reverse).
This line is weak. If suddenly the price was going too fast and too far and stops around this line it means the price will reverse down very soon. If the price did not stop near this line this price will continue the movement to the line 8/8.

3. Line 1/8 (Weak, Place to Stop and Reverse).
This line is weak. If suddenly the price was going too fast and too far and stops around this line it means the price will reverse up very soon. If the price did not stop near this line this price will continue the movement down to the line 0/8.

4. Line 2/8 and 6/8 (Pivot, Reverse)
Those two lines yield the line 4/8 only to the strength to reverse the price movement.

5. Line 5/8 (Top of Trading Range)
The price is spending the about 40% of the time on the movement between the lines 5/8 and 3/8. If the price is moving near line 5/8 and stopping near the line during the 10 - 12 days so it means that it is necessary to sell in this "bonus zone" (some people are doing like this) but if the price is keeping the tendency to stay above 5/8 line, so it means that the price will be above. But if the price is droping below 5/8 line it means that the price will continue falling to the next level of resistance.

6. Line 3/8 (Bottom of Trading Range).
If the price is below this line and in uptrend it means that it will be very difficult for the price to break this level. If the price broke this line during the uptrend and staying above during the 10- 12 days it means that the price will be above this line during the 40% of its time moving between this line and 5/8 line.

7. Line 4/8 (Major Support/Resistance Line).
It is the major line concerning support and resistance. This leve is the better for the new sell or buy. It is the strong level of support of the price is above 4/8. It is the fine resistance line if the price is below this 4/8 line.

Description: This indicator shows pivot point, oversold, overbought and extreme levels on your MT4 charts.

[-2/8] P extremely overshoot
[-1/8 ] P overshoot
[0/8] PUltimate Support - extremely oversold
[1/8] PWeak, Stall and Reverse
l[2/8 ] PPivot, Reverse - major
[3/8] PBottom of Trading Range
[4/8] PMajor Support/Resistance Pivotal Point
[5/8] PTop of Trading Range - [5/8], if 10-12 bars then 40% Time. SELL Premium Zone
[6/8] PPivot, Reverse - major
[7/8] PWeak, Stall and Reverse
l[8/8] PUltimate Resistance - extremely overbought
[+1/8] Povershoot
[+2/8] Pextremely overshoot

Useful info Triggs.Thanks


I would be very interested to know a good setting for this too

Hey Trigg what is youre settings for youre Murrey_Math_MT4_VG on M1 chart? I am asking cause it didnt get into the template you posted a while back. I looks like the standard P64 and stepback0 is what you are using, but id like confirmation on that.

Happy trading to everyone!

Hey yaed
That's right...but test it at your own, please. These parameters seems having for me more a pracmatical (empirical, statistical) power & less a theoretical.
Have read your impressive bio & want to say: "You could read books about modelltheory (in economic or psychological testtheory or statistic) for winning a feeling (knowledge) about validity, reliability and so on...."

Wish you successful start!

Hi

Thanks for the info Trigg. I got to thinking about youre setup, last night after i scalped my way with break even results. I got to thinking "Hes got 2 indies that is his main thing, and i know one indie such as a RSI, MACD, CCI or just an average gives 60-70% good signlas." So then i got to thinking that maybe if you have one indie that aims for short term probability, and one for longer term probability, and if you where able to mutliply theire chance of being right, you would perhaps get just 1/3 of the signals, but that would keep you out of 2/3 of the situations you where hoping to avoid.

And voila, thats just what youre double CCI/RSI does, as i can se the RSI gives signal of around 100/-100, and the CCI at 200/-200 something like that, the RSI keeping track of the slower price action and CCI of the faster. I see also that if youre RSI and CCI converge we have a pretty good signal. I see also that discretion and wisdom tells me not to act upon the first movement of breakout, i have always tried to stay away from these anyway. However it seems that this method generates a lot of signals, and not few as i thought double indies would. I adapted this to my own way (i found out that i should NEVER use someones system unmodified.) Backtesting gives something like 88-90% good trades, with profit ratio of around 1.5-2.

My thinking has been to find a strategy that is ok at best, cause i dont think there exists one that is better then that until i see it. It seems i have done so.

And i must say this sort of thing is easier to use then Hoss method, in my thinking. The problem i had with Hoss method was to know when that third or fourth move came around, the one where i should go in towards the EMA 200. I tried filtering the signal through setting a limit so that if the price was 22 pips away from the price, it was a "Wild" price. I knew that wild price was just what Hoss was looking for, when it got far away from the EMA 200. I found that if the price got that distance and further away (22 pip) from the EMA it was very hard to tell when it turned back, as we could be looking at a huge breakout like that of July 1st. A problem being that this occurs all the time in breakouts and fakeouts, a lot of the movements being 50 pips up or down followed by consolidation where price just hugged my MAs. So the problem with Hoss method, for me, was that i had a hard time ascertaining if a move was one of 20, 50, 100 or 300 pips, and when that was exhausted and started returning home to the EMA 200. I where not able to interpret when these moves where in the last push. My conclusions was that this method included variables that i could not read and not understand, i commend those that are able to do such a thing, you have attained wisdom that i have not.

Right now i am looking at USD/JPY and EUR/USD mostly because of the low spread, (USD/JPY 2.0 and EUR/USD 1.6). It seems USD/JPY gives very good signals, but due to the slightly higher spread it could prove less profitable (i use very low TPs to be safe).

If there is any interest i will post my .tpl and give explanations of it.

Happy trading to everyone!

Thanks for the info, Trigg - by the way, do you know which post the murray math indicator you gave is (alluded to by yaed above)?

Its in post #554, its actually Bergax who provided it, thanks Bergax.

p.44, #654 , too; thank's Bergax! or see #554.

Yes, do it please!

and...may be once more:

One indi which conceivably could needed could be the price vola - a discriminatory power of ranging or trending environments. I solve this problem with my experience in MTF (multiple time frame analysis) by switching between the time cells M1 - M5 - M15 - M30 - H1 - H4 - Daily, Weekly, Monthly.

in contouring the topic:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ithout-usd.asp

All M1 trading sytems has this problem, if not, they wouldn't be a M1 System any more,...inherent in the system (inbuilt).
I solve this problem when I switch at the next higher timeframes stay at M1 and switch at M5 & M15 (by taking an overview at H4 & Daily) by looking the daily pivots & the murrey math.

Oanda has often 0.9 at EURUSD and USDJPY is tighter, too (but no MT4), then with the possibility of subaccounts.

Well, there is a lot of subjects quite complex that needs considering, and volatility is one of them. Looking back and thinking on the price of 1 july i see that almost nothing mechanicly applied mathematical operation could filter that breakout. I tried thinking that if there is a 10 pip candle, then you hold everything of until a quite consolidation when EMAs gather. However, this did not make sense, since a lot of my good signals came at or after such big candles.

So after a lot of counting and scratching my head i just said to myself: "Come on man, i think you can afford to loose 5 pips to a breakout, as long as you dont persist and try to chase youre loss." So i would think the way to avoid breakouts, that i use for now will be not to enter for a while if i get stoplossed. Which means if i get stoplossed it is due to a "breakout", even if it isnt.

Of course we want to stay in good volatility, and generally i have found that i dont really need to keep track of it that much, if i just stick to my set method.

Anyway, here is my template. The only indie you might not have is the Pivots, and you can find that in this thread.


So if you load that .tpl up, what are you looking at? Well the MAs i use to determine trend, if they are all above/below price we are in a strong trend. Then there is a lot of other things i look for in them. If price is locked below/above MA 20 then there is i large probability of price touching the MA 69. And if price is locked above/below MA 39 there is a large probability that price will touch MA 200. I really dont now what this is called or why this is so, its just something i picked upp through trial and error. Now this mentioned probability for price to touch the slower MAs is just the markets willingness for consolidation and calmning down, and it changes so to speak.

In a trend the price will keep outside of MA 20 (and the other MAs), and then when exhaustion is near MA 20 will give resistance before price drops inside of MA 20. And now probability says that price will get to MA 69, passing MA 39. BUT, this is a big BUT, if trend remains strong although it has gone through MA 20, it will very quickly touch MA 39, and then rapidly go off again through MA 20 and out (from MA 200). Now, it is very important that all these MAs are there, because they are all floting resistances/supports. Of course you should never count on them to be there all the time, sometimes they are strong, sometimes weak, and sometimes price just goes right through them. There is nothing new in this, its just that i calibrated these MAs to show exactly this, and they do. So in my thinking, if price is outside of MA 20, its in a place where i cant count on it according to my MAs. If you want to now how i think, look at these MAs backwards and forwards and look how price behaves near them.

The double RSIs or CCIs i configure individually according to the moneymanagement plan i use. It is very interesting to observe a well tuned convergence on a double indie and then price takes off. I have tuned values for period and such in the indie i use, accoring to risk/benefit and MM calculations which is very precise, and very individual for me. But i try to stick to two values, according to MAs, one fast and one a few periods slower, and then capture and filter signals accordingly on visual backdata. I use low TP and SL, but these are fine tuned on historical data.

Resistance of price in a pivotline is something that i would like to think of as doorway or portal. This we can observe with the pivot lines. Price should in normal circumstances go the way it was heading, but the pivot is a doorway to another dimension so to speak, price goes in but doesnt come back, it disappears into the doorway. But of course price keeps on moving, and the strength of pivots are never unlimited, but unless you got good connections you dont now when that doorway closes, you just know that it will. The real practical meaning of this is that price is "cut off" when it reaches a pivot, how much you wont now in advance, just that it probably will be some pips. This means that price will stop at a pivot instead of just keep going (as with all supports), but knowing this means that you know that the price will be cut off and the price formation will be altered from its natural look. Of course knowing that pivots are there means that investors must use extra funds to break them to continue on, pips im not prepared to use, so i never try to hang unto price to break through a pivot.

Just a word about moneymanagement before i forget it. Currently my thinking goes something like this: 5-10 pips steady a day is all i need. May seem strange, but its not. Pips is just a multiple, and you multiply with lots to get the amount of real money. This really means that if you have a, say 100% chance of making 5 pips you could bet youre whole account, and double it instantly. Now thats never gonna happen, so just forget about it. No really i mean it, FORGET ABOUT IT! Aint no such thing as a safe deal in currencies. But, if you have a 92% chance of winning 5 pips, perhaps you could bet 3% of youre total account, at least if the loss where just 5 pips, thats a no brainer deal, id take it any time of the week. And i do, its called scalping. So lets say that 3% of my account is what i use everyday for expenditures. All i need is one deal in the books for each day and i can do something fun like drawing och having a cup of coffee with my wife. So what i figured is that 0.5 pips, 5 pips, 50 pips, 5.000 pips DOES NOT MATTER.
What matters is probability times risk/cost. All you need to do is calculate those two and you are in the safe zone, no need for any "system". Now ofcourse the problem being the calculation of probability. But lets say you get 50% plus something to tilt things youre way to beat the spread, and you should never ask for anything more. So to conclude this part: All i want is a few pips steady a day over say a week. So if i get -4, -6, +10, +8, -1 pips for working 5 days, 10 hours each day, that would be fine by me, as long as i can count on ending up with more then i lost. All that matters is to do steady pips on the + side.

About that spread issue: I will give Alpari a call if i think that i can push a thousand euros each month theyre way just to lower the spread. It seems if you give em enough flat rate money they will actually remove the spread (doing a lot for my profit margins). A cost/benefit analysis is of course the way to go here. Meanwhile i have heard nasty things about Oanda, of course Alpari often requotes me, loosing me everything from 0.5 to 3 pips if i do manual close, which i sometimes have to if my preset TP/SL does not seem to do the trick. Funny though, it seems mostly like it is the SL that lags, the TP seems a lot quicker, i wonder if they ever try to go in ahead of theyre clients if they are successfull. I have found that TPs should perhaps idealy be taken when price is standing still (for that 0.3-0.6 seconds before a turn), not easy to execute in the right 100th of second though.

By the way, my father things i have gone kind of insane to still working with trading, without getting as much as a nickel. For him you need two hundred bucks every day after taxes, otherwise you dont go to work. People caught in this kind of thinking will remain thinking that theyre situation is the natural order of things. Id rather be insane then having somebody telling me what to do.

Hmm that was a bit to general but anyway.

Agreed, higher probability that way.

Hi guys

Am working on a sunday it seems. I was on a hike in the woods when it struck me that fixed TP and SL are insane, you should never ever use it unless you really have to. Why? The market dont move in absolute values its just people buying or selling, youre TP and SL must adapt to these circumstances. It of course means that it can be harder to calculate moneymanagement, but it must be done if there is to be any serious pips harvested. I am therefore calculating this, with success it seems. I use a medium fast RSI to show me when price becomes wild and doesnt stay in line with the systematic retraces movements that is what i am investing in. As it looks now i am able to knock about 5-8 pips off of my formerly calculated SL, while still having a very profitable TP.

The TP is calculated from the touch of certain MAs, based on MA analysis that i mentioned above. I have for a long time struggled with he idea of making safe trades while still having a TP worth my time, while beating the drawdowns of my SLs of course. Once i was really lost, had SL 25 and TP of 2.5 in order to be making very safe trades. I accidentally entered a trade 10 seconds to early and hit the SL, insted of making 2.5 pips which i should have if i had made the trade in he right moment.

Now, a couple of weeks later with slightly lower probatility trades (75-90%) and completely diffrent method, floatind SL of around 5-8 pips and TP of around 6-10 seem not that far fetched. Though i must admit things have perhaps become a bit more complicated. I use maximum drawdown though, a worst case scenario backup if the floating SL dont work.

Anyway, id just like to say one more thing before my wife gets home from work. I have heard a lot of people say that scalping is impossible because the timeframe is just to chaotic. I have had many goes at calculating higher movements and timeframes, and i must say my take is totally different: I find it harder to anticipate movements on the higher timeframes. Of course channels drawn on H4 is always nice, a lot smarter then just looking at S/R if you ask me. From what i can see M1 is actually the best timeframe for calculating retraces. The idea of trying to follow a trend seems like something i dont now how to do. In fact trends at all are overrated. Oh she just got home. Just my two cents for tonight anway.

By the way, breakoutfilter wanted? In that case, try RSI period 14, apply to close, put lines at 85 and 15 (82-83 and 17-18 might do the trick otherwise), anything at or beyond that indicates breakout, its over when price touches MA 39 (,a fat line (to allow for the "chaos of the market", exponential, close), could be followed by another breakout, depends on if the banks want it that way. You should not like it when price bounces off of MA 20, that indicates the strongest kind of trend without retrace.

Happy trading!

Hi

So bad deal once again for today, i hate these quite, slow movements like a couple of minutes ago, its lika they are otherwordly. Kind of like the banks pulling the strings perhaps...

If i could i wold store all my cash in a damn chest at home.

Anyway no retrace where there normally would have been one, so im out -11 pips. Guess if i would still have had those pivots i would have spotted this coming, huh Trigg?

Hi yaed

It seems to be as a "commercial member under evaluation" I can now write my comments here on this board, too. So I haven't use the synonym "trigg" any longer. Could you post your chart, please with entry and exits so all here can discussed it together, if you would like to do this.

Scalping at M1 and taking a look at M5 seems to simple , really...

Trading Example:
I have pointed out the longer trades (blue) and the shorter ones (red) at M5. It could be seen support and resistance levels at the Pivotals and at the murrey math lines, ...so we have had two powerful arguments and then the CCI/RSI peaks and valleys. If higher timeframes won't say other things, so it has been a good chance for making profits today with higher probabilities,.., why not?

Result: 2 great deals today.

Hope it helps.

Kindest regards
trigg