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  • #13,261
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:00am Jul 28, 2010 9:00am
Quoting gaf
When we are in a possible turning point (use the recent GBP/USD as an example) we watch for a new series of higher highs and higher lows (in a down trend). It is my current understanding that we want to see a close above the close of the second last meaningful swing low (May 7) which happens convincingly on the 23 of June. Then we look for a higher low to be above the close of the second last meaningful swing low which for me happens convincingly on July 1st.
Hello John:

Your interpretation gets you into the trend change way too late!

My understanding of trend change is show below:
http://www.trading-strategies.info/f...s-change-1.gif
A Long or Bullish Bias Change occurs when the following sequence develops:

LL>LH>HL>HH>HL

The bias change is confirmed when price moves above the last higher high made as highlighted (blue line) on the chart.

However, I do not wait for the blue line but put buy stops above the pullback candles from the last HH. This would get me into the trade on the break of the 3rd. candle backwards from the end.

As usual, Strat entered the GBPUSD trade even earlier using advanced strategies.

Regards,
JS
  • #13,262
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:48am Jul 28, 2010 11:48am
Hey guys,
Thanks for your quick replies. I am referencing posts 8441, 8443, 8575 and the discussion around them (sorry if I’m still a bit thick regarding the outcome).

Thank you both for your succinct answers. I am a bit confused as to rather the series of swings you both mention can be construed as a short term correction if the previous major swing (as per my post) is not taken out hence my question about the close. I am still thinking like post 8443 and want to know if I missed another post that discusses this in further detail.

Being timid as a trader I find I am choking off my trades, thinking it is still in “correction land” until I see a HL above the swing resistance.

I’m not trying to put anyone on the spot, I just want to clear my muddy thinking. Thanks so much for your answers and the reminder about trading the “hook”. Looking forward to any more input you may have. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #13,263
  • Jul 28, 2010 5:55pm Jul 28, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting gaf
Hey guys,
Thanks for your quick replies. I am referencing posts 8441, 8443, 8575 and the discussion around them (sorry if I’m still a bit thick regarding the outcome).



John
Hi John,

In my view, once the second HH is exceeded, the trend change is confirmed. Until then it is a correction.

Ref #8575, you will see that Blackeagle says that he needs to see 2.12 high exceeded for confirmation.

In any case, I think that's the 'basic' theory of trend change. Each instance will have to be interpreted independently as some of the swings may qualify 'technically' but the legs may be too short or too long. Then there are SR levels in the vicinity to be considered.

Hope Strat or a thread veteran reviews this exchange. Would really like their opinions on this.

Regards,
Rajesh
  • #13,264
  • Jul 28, 2010 5:57pm Jul 28, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting euro_dude
Hello John:

Your interpretation gets you into the trend change way too late!

My understanding of trend change is show below:
http://www.trading-strategies.info/f...s-change-1.gif
A Long or Bullish Bias Change occurs when the following sequence develops:

LL>LH>HL>HH>HL

The bias change is confirmed when price moves above the last higher high made as highlighted (blue line) on the chart.

However, I do not wait for the blue line but put buy stops above the pullback candles from the last HH. This would...
This thread is not about getting in as early as possible but rather as SAFE as possible, using BASIC PASR and our TOOLS.

If we need to wait for several HH and HL 's ( as per the GBPUSD example)
to get those SAFER entries,... then that is what we do.

Strat has some more advanced methods but they are not discussed on this thread.

It's all about QUALITY not QUANTITY.
  • #13,265
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:36pm Jul 28, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting gaf
Hey guys,...
trading the “hook”

What are we now, shepherds, cloakroom attendants, red light customers?

We trade PASR!

To clear your ''muddy thinking'', take another look at Patrick's posts on GBPCHF (or maybe stop drinking mud)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,266
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:38pm Jul 28, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting Raje$h
Hi John,

In my view, once the second HH is exceeded, the trend change is confirmed. Until then it is a correction.

Ref #8575, you will see that Blackeagle says that he needs to see 2.12 high exceeded for confirmation.

In any case, I think that's the 'basic' theory of trend change. Each instance will have to be interpreted independently as some of the swings may qualify 'technically' but the legs may be too short or too long. Then there are SR levels in the vicinity to be considered.

Hope Strat or a thread veteran reviews this exchange. Would...
You answered it fine
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,267
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:40pm Jul 28, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting GibsonL6
This thread is not about getting in as early as possible but rather as SAFE as possible, using BASIC PASR and our TOOLS.

If we need to wait for several HH and HL 's ( as per the GBPUSD example)
to get those SAFER entries,... then that is what we do.

Strat has some more advanced methods but they are not discussed on this thread.

It's all about QUALITY not QUANTITY.
You said it much softer and sweeter than I would have!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,268
  • Jul 28, 2010 7:36pm Jul 28, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting euro_dude
Hello John:

Your interpretation gets you into the trend change way too late!

My understanding of trend change is show below:
http://www.trading-strategies.info/f...s-change-1.gif
A Long or Bullish Bias Change occurs when the following sequence develops:

LL>LH>HL>HH>HL

The bias change is confirmed when price moves above the last higher high made as highlighted (blue line) on the chart.


JS
From the picture you have attached, it seems you are checking LL-LH-HH-HL for individual bars. Instead I recommend you to learn to read bigger the picture first (swing highs-lows on bigger picture).
  • #13,269
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:18pm Jul 28, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting gaf
Hello Strat and gang....
I have attached GBPUSD daily and weekly swings according to my interpretation of swing lows-highs. Others may have different swing highs-lows unless they are so obvious, so it is a little bit subjective issue.

As you all know, different time frames have different trends. That is the reason we are checking all three time frames we are following on this thread. In order to determine the swings on one time frame, like the one you did on Daily, I am looking at "meaningful" swing highs/lows not to cluster the chart and as the name suggests, I am only looking for highs and lows, not the closes.

When I look at your chart, I see that you are lost in details to be able to determine each swing high-low. Again I suggest you to learn to read bigger picture and always check higher time frames. By doing so, determining the trend and hence the direction you will trade in lower time frames is much easier.

When I look at Weekly chart, when price made a higher high above 1.4780 and considering the recent SR line (Green), a new trend has started and I have been trading GBPUSD from long side since then. On daily chart, I was checking June 2nd swing high to be broken to have a confirmed LH-HL-HH (when June 2nd high is broken) complete cycle.

I am also attaching a pdf file summarising how to determine trend changes by using swings.

Hope this helps.

Regards,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD - Daily Swings.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD - Weekly Swings.jpg Size: 165 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Peaks_and_Troughs.pdf   181 KB | 942 downloads
  • #13,270
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:38pm Jul 28, 2010 8:38pm
Although the price is above major SR at 1.29, it cannot go further for the last three weeks. The reason is the blue DSRI line on weekly chart. If it is cleared, there is no obstacle until 1.37. Therefore we need to watch PA between 1.29 SR and the DSRI line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-Weekly.jpg Size: 194 KB
  • #13,271
  • Jul 29, 2010 2:26am Jul 29, 2010 2:26am
i need someone to tell me wish period of time should i use since i ve always been runing at lost cus i use the 30M for now kindly advice
  • #13,272
  • Edited 5:36am Jul 29, 2010 3:24am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting Nosa I
i need someone to tell me wish period of time should i use since i ve always been runing at lost cus i use the 30M for now kindly advice
Before you get a blasting from Strat, I suggest you go right back to the first post and you will soon realise that we concentrate on Daily charts for trading purposes, BUT always decide how to read the Daily chart after having a detailed look at the Monthly (Big Boss), Weekly (Boss) charts. These give the bigger picture and put the Daily (Worker) chart in context.

Just using the Daily will not stop you losing of course, you also have to be able to read the candles and PRICE ACTION at levels of SUPPORT and/or RESISTANCE. MONEY MANAGEMENT is also crucial.

Start at the beginning!
  • #13,273
  • Jul 29, 2010 3:24am Jul 29, 2010 3:24am
Quoting Nosa I
i need someone to tell me wish period of time should i use since i ve always been runing at lost cus i use the 30M for now kindly advice
Pleae go to the beginning of the thread and start reading. Don't just skim through but read and understand. You should have at least read something before you ask this kind of question here.

WE ONLY TRADE THE DAILY TF!
  • #13,274
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:20am Jul 29, 2010 6:20am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached GBPUSD daily and weekly swings according to my interpretation of swing lows-highs. Others may have different swing highs-lows unless they are so obvious, so it is a little bit subjective issue.

As you all know, different time frames have different trends. That is the reason we are checking all three time frames we are following on this thread. In order to determine the swings on one time frame, like the one you did on Daily, I am looking at "meaningful" swing highs/lows not to cluster the chart and as the name suggests, I am only...
Hey Guys,
Just wanted to thank Rajesh and everyone who took the time to respond to my question; especially blackeagle for preparing your long post and posting the peaks and troughs article. I really appreciate it.

Strat: No "hooker" trading for me ever (the wife would not approve). Thanks for the confirmation of Rajesh's post and pointing me in the direction of Patrick's post. We have a wonderful community on here. Thanks again. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #13,275
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:19am Jul 29, 2010 7:19am
Quoting igmal
If someone wants to SHARE his ideas,strategys,way of thinking,etc,why does he need to wright a book?He could SHARE all to a public forum!
Personally,I belive that there are no books in order to learn you how to become a good trader.There are emotions(because we are human beings,not tools)as:angry,happyness,desapoiment,that we learn to manage ONLY passing tghrow.All depends by us.Thanks.
Brett Steenbarger shared all his ideas in his blog until he started a new job which prohibited him blogging. His book was just an aggregation and expansion of his blog posts.
  • #13,276
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:28am Jul 29, 2010 7:28am
Quoting Blackeagle
Although the price is above major SR at 1.29, it cannot go further for the last three weeks. The reason is the blue DSRI line on weekly chart. If it is cleared, there is no obstacle until 1.37. Therefore we need to watch PA between 1.29 SR and the DSRI line.
You spoil these lucky people!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,277
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:26am Jul 29, 2010 11:26am
Quoting strat
You spoil these lucky people!

I don't think of it as spoiling, I think of it as opening the eyes a little wider. Helps to plant the seed to grow a little more. I would not have thought of pulling the DSRI from there, I was looking more from '01-'02 lows, so that helped me a little bit there, and I'm at the part in the thread studying about DSRI right now too. So another piece of the puzzle put together by Strat and his team of Cert. Trainers


Quoting strat

DYNAMIC SUPPORT & RESISTANCE INDICATOR

...

Could we be seeing bloody magic coming up? Only time and PA will show us.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-7-28 - dsri fib- eurusd weekly.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #13,278
  • Edited 12:51pm Jul 29, 2010 12:32pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Although the price is above major SR at 1.29, it cannot go further for the last three weeks. The reason is the blue DSRI line on weekly chart. If it is cleared, there is no obstacle until 1.37. Therefore we need to watch PA between 1.29 SR and the DSRI line.
Hi Blackeagle,

why that DSRI is still valid? I thought it was the demand DSRI until the 1st week of May broke through and closed way under it. What kind of DSRI is it?
  • #13,279
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:07pm Jul 29, 2010 1:07pm
How good it is to open computer after two days short break at Leamington Spa to see the open trade is still open and and another trade EURUSD is ready and yes some good posts as well.
  • #13,280
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:33pm Jul 29, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting strat
Are you SURE you have READ the thread?

Are you SURE you UNDERSTOOD what you read?

This and MORE is ALL explained in the thread.
Hello Strat,
thank you for this "kick in the ass"

I must admit that I thought I had understood but it was not the case: in my last posts, I did only concentrate on
- daily HL, HH... forgotting the basics: the boss give the instructions
- candlestick entry points (or what I assumed to be, but they were some mistakes in, as I remarked later), although the method is to watch price action at SR levels...
- the beauty of MA20 acting as a support/resistance (the single fact I really noticed that recently showing that I had not fully read and understood the thread).

Consequently, I have no excuse: it is clear that I have to go back to zero, read and understand each post of this thread.
Please accept my sincere apologies : I'm serious at becoming a good trader, I'm not a lurker and I'm ready to do all the efforts in order to achieve this goal. So I'm now doing what I should have done before: to read the thread carefully and completely.
From yesterday morning until now (I'm on holidays right now, which give me more time to study), I managed to review the first 40 pages of the thread.
(a sign I understand what it's about and I'm now on the right path: after having read them, my latest posts seemed so stupid and incomplete -quoting the swings on a daily chart is far to be sufficient to enable us to make a trading decision!!)
Reading CAREFULLY and UNDERSTAND the whole thread will take a long time, but as you wrote a lot of times: it is not a race and markets will still be there tomorrow and after.

Now, I fully understand that:
1) the BOSS (and the big boss if we need a longer sight) is the key of our trading: it shows us the trend;
2) the worker is the timeframe on which we initiate our trades, based on the "instruction" of the boss.
3) we have to look at price action at support/resistance in order to initiate a trade.

Knowing that, I have 2 questions (an answer by Y or N would be sufficient, so that I do not waste your time more than I did ):

1) Of what I've read and understood so far, it is clear that when the BOSS is down (current examples in the majors: EURUSD, USDJPY), we should ONLY consider to initiate shorts at a resistance, if we really want to trade "stress free". In consequence, any buy initiated based for instance on the daily HH,LH... are considered to be countertrend , thus more risky.

A few posts ago however, you advised us to have a look at the latest trade of Patrick25 (long GBPCHF after the hammer at support). Do you think that this kind of trade is only for experienced traders, as it is countertrend, or this is part of the method and this is something we have to consider in order to initiate a trade when we see it?

2) as I wrote here above, we have to look at price action at support/resistance in order to initiate a trade. By S/R, we mean primarily the "static S/R (horizontal lines going through levels where the price closed several times in the past), but also trendlines, fib retrace levels, trendlines or MAs. The confluence of several of these "lines"
But when I add all these things on my charts, it gives this (dotted lines = daily SR, plain lines = weekly SR):

It is not what we can call "naked trading". Is it normal that we use all these things as part of the method, or doing so, am I overcomplicating things?

I thank you again Strat and all members of this thread. I've found a great traders community. Hoping I'll be able to give back to you what you already gave to me.

see you,
P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Boss.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD worker.png Size: 22 KB
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