Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

USD/CAD +50 pips =)

Price turned at Support from yesterdays downswing or maybe at 1.0400 if one gives regard to round numbers.
Fact is that this fib-tool is great! I experimented with price action before I found it. I have read Steve Nison's book about interpreting candle sticks and Ed Ponsi but I was not profitable. This tool combined with price action is really, really great!!!
But being honest I still have more loosers than winners. But I'm in profit!!! hahaha =)
I'm very delighted to get more experience with this trading style! (And looking back it seems like the mayority of my loosing trades is because of my lag of patience. I'm always taking trades to fast! Thanks of this tool I stopped closing trades to fast =)
However it seens this USD/CAD trade I closed not to soon ;-)
Very often market turns with the beginning of the US-session! Does anyone take trades because of this ? I did but then I was not sure and closed the trade. What a pity because we are actually +30 pips!

Hi,

I couldn't download fib tool template. please let me know how can I download this.

Regards,
Renga

Hi Renga!
If you mean the template on the first page of this thread than it's very easy. Just click on "fib tool tempate.tpl", this will download the template to your computer, wherever all your downloads go =)
Then, just put it in the folder templates of your platform:
C: -> programs -> Metatrader (Alpari or whatever your broker is) -> templates
If your Metatrader platform is already openend, you will have to close and reopen it first...
Now, by clicking on your chart with the right mousebutton, you shoud find the template under templates!
Hope this answered your question =)
You should try to set up the fibonacci-tool yourself. This is explained in one of the videos on the first page. The levels are mentioned again in one of the posts there.
Hope I could help you!

iam a newbie and i dont understand any of this. it is way too difficult.

Yeah - it looks pretty daunting when you start out at this. But stick with it.

The only reason I'm trading full-time is because of Bo and what is contained within this thread, and now these days the videos & training etc at his website.

I remember starting out on this thread. It took me ages to get through it, but it was definitely worth it

I tried trading fibs for the longest time, and just had such a hard time getting it. I still work with them to try and understand them more, but It's not for everyone. Thats not to say it cant work. Fibonacci is very popular especially in forex because of its technical nature.

I know a guy that trades fibs, but because he cant predict what level price will stop at, he came up with the idea to average down at each level. The 38.2, the 50 and 68.2..his stop would be the slightly under the 61.8, and his target would be the top of the trend he was measuring from.

I'll show an example. Here is BA (boeing), and we would have bought 1,000 shares at the 38.2, and then 2,000 shares at the 50. The 61.8 was never hit so no buying there. Price then made its way back to the top, and he would have made 9300 on the first position, and 24,300 on the 2nd, for a total of 33.6K. Not bad for 3 months work, but there are some flaws with this of course being.

Fibs are rather objective...how can you possibly know ahead of time, which swing low, and swing high you draw your fibs on will hold up?..again take this BA chart for example. Only in hind sight can we see that the major swing low/ high was the one that held up..all the other swings in the middle of the trend did not.

Again I'm not saying this cant work, but it takes a while at best to grasp.

Hello Big_pipin,

You've hit the nail on the head by concluding that determining which Fibonacci level that will be the one to hold resistance or support is a subjective matter. I have come up with a way to avoid that, but I won't discuss it here since that is not the purpose of my post.

What I want to comment on is that using Fibonacci in the fashion you described above has merit only if you are able to identify the direction of the major trend. Since by doing so you identify the orientation by which you have to enter the market and all you have to do is keep entering at retracements and exit with a predetermined profit target or an extension projection. And as we all know, trends, specially in forex, tend to last a while and you could rack up some nice profits following this method...But,

Two things have to be considered though if you plan on employing this technique.

1) You need a market timing method to determine trend reversal or trend end (such as Elliott wave, cycles, Gann, etc) to time your exit and reversal of the strategy (not position), otherwise you will keep hitting your stop-loss level, particularly in a sideways or choppy market.

2) You need to pre-determine the degree of trend you plan on applying the Fibonacci analysis to (e.g. 8 bar swing, 13 bar swing, 21 bar swings, etc). This will play a huge part in determining the amount of draw-down you will experience.

3) Ensuring you have proper money management techniques if you are going to use average cost entry. Do not double up; and as you go in make sure the maximum stop-loss level (whether in $ or in pip value) does not exceed 2% of your account, and this accounts for all open positions and not per position (i.e. total loss of all open positions should not exceed 2%, trust me you will sleep better at night). This will help you survive another day to trade.

4) With point 3 in consideration, I would recommend placing your stop at the 100% retracement and using the four main retracement levels as your entry point and those are 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 78.6%. Theoretically the market could retrace up to 99% of the original move before resuming the trend. By following this point you avoid having your stop-loss being hit (stop-loss hunting). But, and this is a BIG BUT, you must follow point 3 above if you will use this method.

5) When setting profit targets ensure that is at least equal to the previous swing's impulse move. i.e. if the market is retracing a 100 pips move, your profit target should be at least 100 pips for each position; ideally you want it 1.5x to 2x. If your not able to psychological withstand this PT level, then set your profit target at least back to the swing marking the beginning of the retracement (0.00%), although you would be missing on the rest of the move.

For example,

If the market moved 100 pips in bullish trend and you believe a top had occurred and is retracing, you place buy limit orders at the ratios indicated above. Assuming you had a $100,000, you would only risk $2000 of your account. If the market were to retrace 100% of the move (i.e potentially reverse in direction) your maximum loss would only be $2000; if you enter with a single position, then you know that you must enter with 2 lots maximum (2 lots x $10 per lot x 100 pips). But, knowing that you will enter with 4 positions, then each position would be 0.5 lots. By doing so you don't have to worry about knowing the grid size between each lot since you know that the total aggregate loss would be a maximum of $2K (that is what's important).

If you observe the above, you will most likely decrease your loss and carry yourself over any choppy market and reap the benefit of when a trend occurs.

I think I am going to dub this method as the "No Name Trading System II"...just kidding

To your success!

Pip_Fx

"I have come up with a way to avoid that, but I won't discuss it here since that is not the purpose of my post."
What is your way to avoid that?

Price broke short term range which was the sell signal. Secure target was hit 10 min later.

Bobokus provides excellent tools for scalping =)
"Look out for safe pips!"

Our server is down this morning so if your trying to access the site its down until the server gets back online, our IT guy is working on the problem so we should be back up soon.
In the meantime since we cant log in, continue to watch price action as both pairs test support a second time at 1.5575 for GBP and 1.2775 for the Euro, a failure there and we will get that next drop to support points where we can start shopping for long entry's.
For scalping short the break of the previous waveform low at 1.2818 and target 1.2795, break even after about 15 pips.

Just keep checking on the site to see if its back up, if we can get back up before 11AM eastern time the trading room will be open.

long time no see ... welcome back Bobokus ... even though only for a short visit!!!

So you guys are looking to buy this EUR and Cable recent drop ??? Do you have a point when you'll be trying to sell the rallies ???

The selling should have been at 1.6 on GBP and 1.33 for the Euro its too late to try and sell them now unless your scalping from day to day.
Wait to see if the current lows hold before taking any longs, another dip to the 1.5525/1.55 range of GBP and 1.2725/1.27 for the Euro and you can start watching to see if those levels hold then you may get a decent entry for a long attempt.

Glad to see you around here , buddy , it's been a while !
Would be nice to stop by sometimes when you have a chance.

All the best Chris

Hey Chris, I see your still around and kicking. I dont come through here much anymore but our site was down today and I wanted to let those know that visit here everyday about the site being down.
I see the thread was moved to the commercial under evaluation section,which is understandable.

Hi guys,

I am unsing fibo levels since few month and that work well, I am looking for an script or EA for manage my exits, if somebody work with the same system that will be more easy to find I think.

I just need to close all open AND pending orders by pair when an certain amount in dollar reached, I tried many EA's and script, no one work well, like SwissArmy, not stable.

thanks by advance

Greg

Hi, Been reading and rereading the thread and following on demo account. Still learning the technique but even though I don't fully grasp it, I am making money! Thanks, Jeff.

This is probably a really stupid newbie question. I googled and searched everywhere I could think of for the answer but couldn't find it. Hope someone can help me. How does Jeff pull the fibs on the chart? I mean, he doesn't have to click to create a new fib, he just clicks on an existing on the chart and moves it to a new locaton (say a higher high). Right now, I have to manually draw each fib and if it gets too messy, I just delete the old fibs on the chart.

Thanks in advance!

Couldn't find an edit button. Just wanted to say that I've started to reread the threads again and found the answer on post #334. Jeff thinks of everything!

Classic Bobokus entry with target hit .

Thanks, speedarad. Its pretty quiet here. Finding it a bit difficult to learn stuff like swing and retracement with the old posts/charts because I can't get them on my account.

I'm still not sure if I'm doing the swing fib set right. Attached 2 trades I took and exited at Swing Targets! Bobokus rocks!

Unlikely to revive this thread. Everybody move on Bo's web.
With the swing you follow the mkt around on every small wave it makes to see which way it goes.You can trade off the swing in raging conditions.From what I saw looks like you grasped the concept already.
Not sure what you meant by " can't get them on my account"