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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,441
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:53am Jul 26, 2010 12:53am
Quoting MktScape
ok ... here is another one.

On monthly .... the last time price came down to this level there were exhaustion bars which started new upward trend ... however this time ... it doesn't look healthy. On monthly it looks like price gapped down and made a measly narrow range upbar nearing the resistance level, which indicates a downward potential.

On H4 i have identified the supply zone and the stop loss at the swing high.

What do you think?
yep, thinking the same and have the same supply level on my charts.
  • #7,442
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:58am Jul 26, 2010 12:58am
Quoting Jliuuu
Here's one I got. NZDUSD H4, though it's entering the supply zone the second time. If this resistance fails, there may other opportunities to short higher up on the larger time frames (0.7400+, 0.7452+).

Just a question on risk management, if I normally plan 1-2% risk per trade, but with several x/USD pairs (EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD) all short and USDJPY long, its seems so co-related. What would be a good way to manage this?
Well, not sure if I wanna short nzd/usd right now, looks like a flag on weekly (continuation pattern)

And to your second question: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7308

If that doesn't answer it, then ask again.

cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd w1 26.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,443
  • Jul 26, 2010 2:53am Jul 26, 2010 2:53am
Quoting Custos
Well, not sure if I wanna short nzd/usd right now, looks like a flag on weekly (continuation pattern)

And to your second question: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7308

If that doesn't answer it, then ask again.

cheers.
Great that answers it perfectly.
Thanks!
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,444
  • Jul 26, 2010 11:33am Jul 26, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Mortician.
AUD/USD long position has been triggered.

CURRENT UPDATE: up by + 70 pips or so.


MY DECISION about it is here:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=12
  • #7,445
  • Jul 26, 2010 11:38am Jul 26, 2010 11:38am
2nd part of the USD/SGD trade up by + 100 pips.

USD/SGD Trade first alerted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...70&postcount=8

SOLD 1st part here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=11

CURRENT CHART OF USD/SGD below.



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post3900322
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Mortician_02 Jul. 26 12.40.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #7,446
  • Jul 26, 2010 1:27pm Jul 26, 2010 1:27pm
that was a nice entry in eur/gbp.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 26.7.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,447
  • Edited 2:56pm Jul 26, 2010 2:01pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting Custos
that was a nice entry in eur/gbp.
I am in it as well ... i entered advance orders yesterday....BTW my VPS is working great ... its monitoring all the trades and I can watch it work from office. Through i have might have to handle some some issues realted to early closing of trades and see what happed there becuase thats not what i intended.

ciao.
  • #7,448
  • Jul 26, 2010 2:14pm Jul 26, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting MktScape
I am in it as well ... i entered advanced orders yesterday....BTW my VPS is working great ... its monitoring all the trades and I can watch it work from office. Through i have might have to handle some some issues realted to early closing of trades and see what happed there becuase thats not what i intended.

ciao.
good to hear that.
  • #7,449
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:37am Jul 27, 2010 1:37am
I read an article about a guy who made a statistical analysis of his trades and found out that he made 90% of his money in the morning and from then on cancelled all his other trades outside that time-window.

Now, I don't know if this story was true, but it made me thinking again about time-windows & the levels we pick. Maybe there is a time-window, when levels hold more often than not. But obviously each pair will have a different window, since for example jpy will be traded more actively in the asian session.

I still need to do an analysis here, but it could increase profitability. What do you guys think?
  • #7,450
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:41am Jul 27, 2010 2:41am
Good morning Costs

I just trade in London Open, in fact I am still looking for the best strategy.
The LONDON FOREX RUSH does not seem consistent.

By the beginning of the NY session, I think this is the best time to trade.


Regards
Jacck
  • #7,451
  • Jul 27, 2010 4:26am Jul 27, 2010 4:26am
here a nice opportunity on gbp/cad h1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad h1 27.7.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,452
  • Jul 27, 2010 4:28am Jul 27, 2010 4:28am
Quoting Jackk
Good morning Costs

I just trade in London Open, in fact I am still looking for the best strategy.
The LONDON FOREX RUSH does not seem consistent.

By the beginning of the NY session, I think this is the best time to trade.


Regards
Jacck
well, I was specifically referring to time window and when levels hold. For every strategy there are other times in the day, but this question was more focused on when levels hold.
  • #7,453
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:29am Jul 27, 2010 6:29am
Quoting Custos
I read an article about a guy who made a statistical analysis of his trades and found out that he made 90% of his money in the morning and from then on cancelled all his other trades outside that time-window.

Now, I don't know if this story was true, but it made me thinking again about time-windows & the levels we pick. Maybe there is a time-window, when levels hold more often than not. But obviously each pair will have a different window, since for example jpy will be traded more actively in the asian session.

I still need to do an analysis here,...
I actually do something similar in futures. You'll find pivots are more likely to hold during certain times, bend during certain times, break during certain times, etc.
I tried to reach the the same conclusion you did custos, but through testing found no consistency. The only conclusion I found to be true is that volatility and trade activity is generally highest in the euro session on *all* pairs, regardless of the pair.
  • #7,454
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:35am Jul 27, 2010 6:35am
Quoting randomperson
I actually do something similar in futures. You'll find pivots are more likely to hold during certain times, bend during certain times, break during certain times, etc.
I tried to reach the the same conclusion you did custos, but through testing found no consistency. The only conclusion I found to be true is that volatility and trade activity is generally highest in the euro session on *all* pairs, regardless of the pair.
so but can't we assume that, the higher the trading activity, the less likely a level is to hold?
This is just from my experience, but my feeling is that my most profitable trades I either enter in the second session of ny or in very early london, at least with the level picking strat. That is why I was thinking, maybe we can identify a "no-trade" session, like the london session.
  • #7,455
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:22am Jul 27, 2010 9:22am
that was another good level

eur/gbp m15.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp m15 27.7.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #7,456
  • Jul 27, 2010 11:23am Jul 27, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Custos
here a nice opportunity on gbp/cad h1
Great catch congrats! Already 150+ pips!
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,457
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:23pm Jul 27, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting Jliuuu
Great catch congrats! Already 150+ pips!
yeah, that one just wants to go

I am guessing up to the area marked in my daily gbp/cad chart. That should be the next resistance level it goes to, but I am sure to take some off in between in case it doesn't wanna go that far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad d1 27.7.2010.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #7,458
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:04pm Jul 27, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Custos
so but can't we assume that, the higher the trading activity, the less likely a level is to hold?
This is just from my experience, but my feeling is that my most profitable trades I either enter in the second session of ny or in very early london, at least with the level picking strat. That is why I was thinking, maybe we can identify a "no-trade" session, like the london session.
Well...obviously 4 pm est ny close - 7 pm est jpy open is always crap volatility and volume. I know some who trade overnight sessions in the index's by exploiting the fact major pivots will almost never turnover overnight, but will bend like hell. Perhaps the same can be applied to this section of the day.

Now...another tidbit is that most major money managers (that's a lot of m's) like to enter their trades in the morning and manage them throughout the day, with few managing during lunchtime. Many I know who trade u.s. equities and futures take lunchtime off due to the lack of volume - i.e. around 11:45 am est to 1:30 pm est. I found these to be true with index's.

Given I miss a lot of good pivot plays in the early euro session (only trading by about 7 pm est), I wouldn't be surprised if this held true to forex. Forex timeframes are trickier, however, given the overlap of various timezones. Perhaps if you can list various areas of interest throughout the day and we can study them. For example, when is the euro/jpy lunch sessions? Banks open at 8 am est in the u.s., but equities 'officially' open at 9:30 am est. Is there any tendancy towards one or the other with currencies? (obviously the assumption is bank open..but you never know). This sort of study can give a list of times with probabilities to assist our trades, by either looking for more or less confirmation.
  • #7,459
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:07pm Jul 27, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Custos
yeah, that one just wants to go

I am guessing up to the area marked in my daily gbp/cad chart. That should be the next resistance level it goes to, but I am sure to take some off in between in case it doesn't wanna go that far.
I really like that level as a target.
  • #7,460
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:24pm Jul 27, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting randomperson
Well...obviously 4 pm est ny close - 7 pm est jpy open is always crap volatility and volume....
yeah, that is a good idea. I already have a couple of areas of interest.
attached is eurchf h4, gbpaud h1 & usdcad h1

also I should mention, today I specifically paid attention to the levels that should have been taken during london and today 70% of the levels failed, shows that it's not that good to enter any "against" momentum trades during that time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf h4 27.7.2010.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud h1 27.7.2010.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad h1 27.7.2010.gif Size: 29 KB
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