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Silent Service Method

  • #9,981
  • Jul 24, 2010 10:06pm Jul 24, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting InfinitySL
OH MY GOD.... we're on page 666!!!

HAHAHA...

Enjoy the weekend fellas (and ladies!).
More interesting than that to me is that we are 20 replies away from 10,000 in this thread!

Thanks to all who have participated. I am still taken back a little every time I come here.
  • #9,982
  • Jul 24, 2010 10:58pm Jul 24, 2010 10:58pm
Hey CW,

Thanks for the heads up on the GBP/JPY box trade last week.

I waited till it got near the bottom of the channel and entered when there was some bullish price action. I put my stop a bit outside the channel and a down spike missed it by 2 pips! Whew!

The next morning I was 100 pips up so moved my stop to BE. My target was well below the center of the channel which got hit while I was asleep.

I woke up with a 200 pip profit in a day and a half.

Thanks again.
  • #9,983
  • Jul 25, 2010 12:03am Jul 25, 2010 12:03am
Quoting jicjoc
Personally i know nothing about trendlines apart from a little experiment i saw some time ago.
Same chart given to 5 traders to draw TLs.
5 fairly different results. Some of them radically different.

Thats why i dont touch them.
Fibs - Ppz, horizontal SR lines. They're ubiquitous. Everyone draws the same lines pretty much. And thats probably why they work so well. It seems like the big fishies that drive the market use these
There is a recognised way to draw classic trendlines which is rock solid and cannot be drawn any other way, however very few that i've seen in this forum know how to draw them.
Would you like to know?
By the way, do you only pay attention to 50% ? the AUD/CAD (which i do not trade) has some great reactions to 61.8%.
Biggest joker
  • #9,984
  • Jul 25, 2010 12:26am Jul 25, 2010 12:26am
Quoting baron193
There is a recognised way to draw classic trendlines which is rock solid and cannot be drawn any other way, however very few that i've seen in this forum know how to draw them.
Would you like to know?
By the way, do you only pay attention to 50% ? the AUD/CAD (which i do not trade) has some great reactions to 61.8%.
DeMarks are decent as well. But I tend to just stick to 3 or more touches myself....
  • #9,985
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:30am Jul 25, 2010 1:30am
tui on daily. what appeared to be a breakout resulted in a pinbar. closing under the resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tui.png Size: 17 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,986
  • Jul 25, 2010 3:24am Jul 25, 2010 3:24am
Quoting jicjoc
Personally i know nothing about trendlines apart from a little experiment i saw some time ago.
Same chart given to 5 traders to draw TLs.
5 fairly different results. Some of them radically different.

Thats why i dont touch them.
Fibs - Ppz, horizontal SR lines. They're ubiquitous. Everyone draws the same lines pretty much. And thats probably why they work so well. It seems like the big fishies that drive the market use these

Thats another reason I like MA's they are what they are and you can't mess with them and everyone can see them.

I also read somwhere that the big boys only use the 100,200, no idea if thats true but everyone sees the same thing.
  • #9,987
  • Jul 25, 2010 3:28am Jul 25, 2010 3:28am
Quoting jicjoc
Yep definitely. But the thing is, its such a huge move that the 50% retrace may not hold exactly. Its usually +/- 10% of the 50% retrace.




Id usually wait until both bosses are driving in the same direction



Yep me too
  • #9,988
  • Jul 25, 2010 3:36am Jul 25, 2010 3:36am
Quoting baron193
There is a recognised way to draw classic trendlines which is rock solid and cannot be drawn any other way, however very few that i've seen in this forum know how to draw them.
Would you like to know?
By the way, do you only pay attention to 50% ? the AUD/CAD (which i do not trade) has some great reactions to 61.8%.
I tend not to use tl's but I'm happy to reconsider if I can be convinced that they are not subjective.

So yeah I'm open to a lesson in tl's.
  • #9,989
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:01am Jul 25, 2010 6:01am
afaik trendlines are mostly used in stocks and not that popular in fx.
i use trendlines only for high timeframes, as chris said monthly trendlines in fx are okay, and work for me.

many people draw fib. ret. wrong and, even worse, tend to draw the facts so it fits their theory, however you should draw the facts to develop your theory.
i hope you understand
  • #9,990
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:33am Jul 25, 2010 6:33am
Quoting baron193
There is a recognised way to draw classic trendlines which is rock solid and cannot be drawn any other way, however very few that i've seen in this forum know how to draw them.
Would you like to know?
By the way, do you only pay attention to 50% ? the AUD/CAD (which i do not trade) has some great reactions to 61.8%.
Yes defeintely - everyday is a school day!

I do draw in the 61.8% and 38.x%.
But i dont believe in the theory behind the numbers. I dont think there is a mystical sequence behind it.

What i do think is that the 50% retrace of a move is one of the strongest points of SR you'll find. And down to human error, diff TFs, different brokers etc there is a +/-10% error zone around the 50%. So that gives the 61.8 and 38.2%.

Right or wrong it doesnt really matter. What matters is that the levels hold frequently. Or course all these lines coincide with SR lines too.

I would only enter however is something pins below/through the pivot. Above is more risky and doesnt usually give the Risk:reward return
  • #9,991
  • Jul 25, 2010 9:47am Jul 25, 2010 9:47am
Quoting stewrigh
Thats another reason I like MA's they are what they are and you can't mess with them and everyone can see them.

I also read somwhere that the big boys only use the 100,200, no idea if thats true but everyone sees the same thing.

Actually, not true - The MAs can be thrown off by certain brokers. For instance, the IBFX feed includes a 2 hour bar for Sunday. Over time, it adds up.....

Also, it can depend on closing time for a daily bar as an example. These are minor issues, but do change things slightly.
  • #9,992
  • Jul 25, 2010 9:47am Jul 25, 2010 9:47am
Quoting aserbfx
tui on daily. what appeared to be a breakout resulted in a pinbar. closing under the resistance.

With divergence even. Interesting set up.
  • #9,993
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:51am Jul 25, 2010 10:51am
The attached chart is a Yen futures chart. It shows that were are in a big triangle with an upside bias. The pricing is vs. the USD, so think of it as "upside down" from what you are used to seeing. As this goes up - it shows the value of the Yen gaining against the Dollar. This shows a really bullish case, which is somewhat hard to believe given where we are at. I would be all over a break of the lower trend line in the triangle....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yenfutures.png Size: 19 KB
  • #9,994
  • Jul 25, 2010 12:19pm Jul 25, 2010 12:19pm
Here is my take on Gold. The trend is certainly up, and we are sitting on a lengthy trend line. However, I notice that the highs are becoming a little less impressive and the open interest has declined. There are less players in the market.

Interesting that AUD is at a crossroads as well on several charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 27 KB
  • #9,995
  • Edited 4:18pm Jul 25, 2010 4:15pm | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting jicjoc
Yes defeintely - everyday is a school day!

I do draw in the 61.8% and 38.x%.
But i dont believe in the theory behind the numbers. I dont think there is a mystical sequence behind it.

What i do think is that the 50% retrace of a move is one of the strongest points of SR you'll find. And down to human error, diff TFs, different brokers etc there is a +/-10% error zone around the 50%. So that gives the 61.8 and 38.2%.

Right or wrong it doesnt really matter. What matters is that the levels hold frequently. Or course all these lines coincide...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro tl's.JPG Size: 74 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro tl's 2.JPG Size: 70 KB

Not pretending to be some kind of guru, it's just something i know AND can share as well, if you have something to show me please do.
Ok for a TL to be valid it must make a new high (on an uptrend) from the last low point, which you'll only know after it did it, which means you need minimum two points and i'm always looking for the third, and vice versa for downtrend.
Of course you can always draw them any which way it suits you, there's no rule that says you have to follow any rules!
You will see solid red line(incorect) and where TL was before it was adjusted.
As for fib's they are a great tool if you know how to use it, but as you said no magic, you just have to spent a lot of time on learning them, so i won't bother with any tricks there.
Biggest joker
  • #9,996
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:57pm Jul 25, 2010 10:57pm
Muted start to the week. The real test comes when we see how the European bond markets react to the tests....
  • #9,997
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:22pm Jul 25, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting baron193
Attachment

Attachment
Not pretending to be some kind of guru, it's just something i know AND can share as well, if you have something to show me please do.
Ok for a TL to be valid it must make a new high (on an uptrend) from the last low point, which you'll only know after it did it, which means you need minimum two points and i'm always looking for the third, and vice versa for downtrend.
Of course you can always draw them any which way it suits you, there's no rule that says you have to follow any rules!
You will see...
Well Sherlock Holmes, thanks for that. I would never have thought to draw trendlines connecting the highs or lows of an up or downtrend.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,998
  • Edited 12:19am Jul 26, 2010 12:14am | Edited 12:19am
Hi all,

TLs are obviously valued very differently from trader to trader - I would like to do a poll though on the following:

What is the lowest timeframe upon which you would consider a TL relevant?

Personally I have not really used TLs much below the daily TF to look for the workings within a weekly trend.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers.
  • #9,999
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:24am Jul 26, 2010 12:24am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi all,

TLs are obviously valued very differently from trader to trader - I would like to do a poll though on the following:

What is the lowest timeframe upon which you would consider a TL relevant?

Personally I have not really used TLs much below the daily TF to look for the workings within a weekly trend.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers.
I'll go down to the H1 for pattern recognition, but those generally have pretty short-term targets, otherwise, daily's and weekly's.
  • #10,000
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:26am Jul 26, 2010 12:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post3898447
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