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Silent Service Method

  • #9,961
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:51am Jul 24, 2010 2:51am
Quoting jharvey407
No.

But I don't use the MA's to determine trend. I use them as SR.
  • #9,962
  • Jul 24, 2010 3:50am Jul 24, 2010 3:50am
Quoting Arfer Daily
I think it will go down next week so why not get in now and have the extra pips?

Of course if it just goes up next week then I will look silly but I've long since worried about that.

My strategy now is to take lots of small losses in the region of 100 to 500 pips and when I catch a big weekly trend with judicious add ons I'll be banking 1000 to 5000 pip trades.
Its not about looking silly. Its about long term future in trading.
This is not a very good strategy. You are trying to call the market. And on what evidence? A small 4 hour shooting star on wednesday. Which was promptly swallowed up by a daily beob thursday.

Picking tops or bottoms of moves is like catching a knife.
The thing is that new moves always retrace. So you're 5000pip move will show you its hand by piercing 1.25. Then old support will act as resistance and when it comes back to 1.25 from the south side this time, PA will get you in for say 4500 pips instead of 5000.

To succeed taking many losses for 1 big winner would put most people in a mental institution.

All that said, if it works, why fix it?
Good luck
John
  • #9,963
  • Jul 24, 2010 3:51am Jul 24, 2010 3:51am
Quoting Low
Unless something is trending hard, with only minor retracements, the psychology gets difficult after you've been in a trade for months on end, like what happens if it retraces to the 50 fib? or the 79? Will you have positions in that area? Will you let them close at BE or a loss? How will that affect your net profit on the trade? Will you also scale out of positions the way you scaled in?

Oh and don't forget, all your trader buddies are making money hand over fist shorting the same pair you're long.

These are all questions I haven't answered...
My entries are according to the ss method, weekly s/r combined with the right candle patterns and a bit of fundamentals.

My exits are determined by the previous weeks pa. If it goes my way and looks right I'll add on and move the stop down and keep doing this until I'm stopped out. If you look at a lot of weekly charts where you would have taken a classic ss method entry you could have stayed in this trade for 3,4,5 sometimes 10 or more weeks in a row, not necessarily adding on every week but where the current week doesn't close above or below the high/low of the previous weeks range. On the weeks when it does go against you move the stop just behind that weeks pa and quite a lot of the time the trend will continue keeping you in the trade.

Chart of usdchf attached with positions. Of course this won't happen all the time but it's worth noting that you could have done the same on the run up. Look through a lot of charts and you will see occasions when this would have worked beautifully and providing you are taking the right entries you should be able to hit a good trend a big enough percentage of times to cover your losses and then some. As George Soros says, when you're wrong take small losses but when you're right squeeze it to the max.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf example.gif Size: 32 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,964
  • Jul 24, 2010 3:56am Jul 24, 2010 3:56am
Quoting jicjoc
Its not about looking silly. Its about long term future in trading.
This is not a very good strategy. You are trying to call the market. And on what evidence? A small 4 hour shooting star on wednesday. Which was promptly swallowed up by a daily beob thursday.

Picking tops or bottoms of moves is like catching a knife.
The thing is that new moves always retrace. So you're 5000pip move will show you its hand by piercing 1.25. Then old support will act as resistance and when it comes back to 1.25 from the south side this time, PA will get you...
Who said anything about 4 hour this that or the other? I'm trading from weekly charts and I'm not trading eurusd. Eurgbp is nowhere near 1.25 so where does all that come in?

They let me out of the mental institution a long time ago, too weird for them.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,965
  • Jul 24, 2010 5:52am Jul 24, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Who said anything about 4 hour this that or the other? I'm trading from weekly charts and I'm not trading eurusd. Eurgbp is nowhere near 1.25 so where does all that come in?

They let me out of the mental institution a long time ago, too weird for them.
Ok, sorry.
  • #9,966
  • Jul 24, 2010 8:06am Jul 24, 2010 8:06am
Quoting jicjoc
Ok, sorry.
No worries, I realise you were only trying to help. Did you buy eurcad? I can see your reasons for possibly doing so but I didn't buy myself as I didn't like the weekly pa.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,967
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:33am Jul 24, 2010 11:33am
Anyone watching this.

Nice pin bar - good location - 50 fib

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcadd.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #9,968
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:32pm Jul 24, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone watching this.

Nice pin bar - good location - 50 fib
That was on my watchlist last week...nothin' happened...I'm in it if it breaks this week.
  • #9,969
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:37pm Jul 24, 2010 12:37pm
http://i26.tinypic.com/sfdkaq.png
  • #9,970
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:38pm Jul 24, 2010 12:38pm
Re the use of MA's - this is an example of how I trade them.

EURCHF is in a strong downtrend and I've been waiting for a pullback to the 100 MA - Now I'll watch PA and IF I get confirmation - I'm in - stop will be the other side of the 200MA.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.jpg Size: 89 KB


Missed the first pullback but this could be even better
  • #9,971
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:44pm Jul 24, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Low
http://i26.tinypic.com/sfdkaq.png
Yep This could be good.
  • #9,972
  • Jul 24, 2010 1:05pm Jul 24, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting stewrigh
Re the use of MA's - this is an example of how I trade them.

EURCHF is in a strong downtrend and I've been waiting for a pullback to the 100 MA - Now I'll watch PA and IF I get confirmation - I'm in - stop will be the other side of the 200MA.

Attachment

Missed the first pullback but this could be even better
Would this trendline not do?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.gif Size: 24 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,973
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:25pm Jul 24, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone watching this.

Nice pin bar - good location - 50 fib

Attachment
Yep definitely. But the thing is, its such a huge move that the 50% retrace may not hold exactly. Its usually +/- 10% of the 50% retrace.

As well there's the concept of big boss/ little boss.
These are the drivers behind the moves.
Big boss is indeed the bear driving the big move you have fibbed.
But little boss is the bull driving the up move. And for me little boss is still in charge.
Id usually wait until both bosses are driving in the same direction
  • #9,974
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:27pm Jul 24, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting jicjoc
Yep definitely. But the thing is, its such a huge move that the 50% retrace may not hold exactly. Its usually +/- 10% of the 50% retrace.

As well there's the concept of big boss/ little boss.
These are the drivers behind the moves.
Big boss is indeed the bear driving the big move you have fibbed.
But little boss is the bull driving the up move. And for me little boss is still in charge.
Id usually wait until both bosses are driving in the same direction
That's a perfect way to view these moves.

Thx
  • #9,975
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:31pm Jul 24, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Would this trendline not do?
They both work. It is a matter of preference.

One of the things I like about MA's is that they draw themselves.
  • #9,976
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:56pm Jul 24, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Would this trendline not do?
Personally i know nothing about trendlines apart from a little experiment i saw some time ago.
Same chart given to 5 traders to draw TLs.
5 fairly different results. Some of them radically different.

Thats why i dont touch them.
Fibs - Ppz, horizontal SR lines. They're ubiquitous. Everyone draws the same lines pretty much. And thats probably why they work so well. It seems like the big fishies that drive the market use these
  • #9,977
  • Jul 24, 2010 6:09pm Jul 24, 2010 6:09pm
OH MY GOD.... we're on page 666!!!

HAHAHA...

Enjoy the weekend fellas (and ladies!).
  • #9,978
  • Jul 24, 2010 8:49pm Jul 24, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting InfinitySL
OH MY GOD.... we're on page 666!!!

HAHAHA...

Enjoy the weekend fellas (and ladies!).
Luckily I'm dyslexic, so it looks like 666!
  • #9,979
  • Jul 24, 2010 10:02pm Jul 24, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting jicjoc
Personally i know nothing about trendlines apart from a little experiment i saw some time ago.
Same chart given to 5 traders to draw TLs.
5 fairly different results. Some of them radically different.

Thats why i dont touch them.
Fibs - Ppz, horizontal SR lines. They're ubiquitous. Everyone draws the same lines pretty much. And thats probably why they work so well. It seems like the big fishies that drive the market use these
This is why I tend to only use trend lines that are found on the weekly or above time frames. The higher the time frame, the more important the trend line. It also keeps the chart clean, which is a big thing for me as well.

I agree with the rest of your statement. No need to reinvent the wheel here - just follow the money......
  • #9,980
  • Jul 24, 2010 10:04pm Jul 24, 2010 10:04pm
Weekend podcast up on the blog......still looking for a better native player for Wordpress......and then I will make it a bit more professional as well.

It will remain free though....
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