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  • #13,201
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:29am Jul 25, 2010 7:29am
Quoting igmal
Hi Simpleman!We all know that gbpjpy is " the beast",but personally I think that eurchf is even worst.From the left side of daily's(not only) chart all I see are just weird,tiny and untradeable candles,followed by those huge tails what are hunting everyone.SNB has no friends and personally I belive that it is often difficult to trade this pair,even for proffesionals traders.Thanks.
SNB has no friends and personally I belive that it is often difficult to trade this pair,even for profesionals traders.Thanks.

Exactly why I don't trade the damned thing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,202
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:36am Jul 25, 2010 7:36am
Quoting igmal
Hi Simpleman!We all know that gbpjpy is " the beast",but personally I think that eurchf is even worst.From the left side of daily's(not only) chart all I see are just weird,tiny and untradeable candles,followed by those huge tails what are hunting everyone.SNB has no friends and personally I belive that it is often difficult to trade this pair,even for proffesionals traders.Thanks.

Depends what timeframe you look at.

For instance I look at the boss and big boss first then I drop down to th 8 or even 4 sometimes for entry.

I know thats sacrilege on this thread but its's the way I trade - Strat please accept my apologies in advance for this heresy.

Anyway look at the 8h chart below. IMO there were quite a lot of opportunities to get in on the trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,203
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:41am Jul 25, 2010 7:41am
Quoting stewrigh
Depends what timeframe you look at.

For instance I look at the boss and big boss first then I drop down to th 8 or even 4 sometimes for entry.

I know thats sacrilege on this thread but its's the way I trade - Strat please accept my apologies in advance for this heresy.

Anyway look at the 8h chart below. IMO there were quite a lot of opportunities the get in on the trend.

Attachment
I know thats sacrilege on this thread but its's the way I trade - Strat please accept my apologies in advance for this heresy.

None necessary. As I look at the Worker, there were just as many on there. I may have to reconsider and out it back on my list
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,204
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:59am Jul 25, 2010 7:59am
Quoting simpleman
I absolutely agree with you and this is what I had noticed. More recently it was behaving reasonably well, but I will be very careful traing this pair. Wild move on GBPCHF last week is the example.
Thanks
Hi! I don't think that gbpchf was a wild move.gbpchf-weekly:as hcristea said,the price reached a very important SR level.Last time when the price gone at that level,it put a doji( inverted hammer) and the next week the confirmation candle witch almost engulfes the previous 2 last candles.This time, the same situation+now is even double bottom.The long tail from daily I personally think that the short big boys were taking profit and were loading for long.With friday candle they show us their intentions giving also good momentum.It is only the way I see gbpchf.Thanks.
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My humble opinion.
  • #13,205
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:40am Jul 25, 2010 10:40am
Quoting igmal
Hi! I don't think that gbpchf was a wild move.gbpchf-weekly:as hcristea said,the price reached a very important SR level.Last time when the price gone at that level,it put a doji( inverted hammer) and the next week the confirmation candle witch almost engulfes the previous 2 last candles.This time, the same situation+now is even double bottom.The long tail from daily I personally think that the short big boys were taking profit and were loading for long.With friday candle they show us their intentions giving also good momentum.It is only the way...
Hi Igmal,
GBPCHF move on friday was 350 pips and that's why i called it wild. There are so many pairs who had double bottoms but after double bottom they didn't move like GBPCHF so that was another point to call it a wild move. I also was watching the pair near 158/159 but didn't take it as I am already long on AUDCAD.
Another important point is SNB wants to see weak CHF and not strong, they may will come to rescue when it is going down and not up. When USDCHF as you know goes up it is dollar strength and swiss weakness so does EURCHF/GBPCHF when these pairs go up that means CHF weakness and therefore no danger of SNB to push the price back down.
Having said doesn't mean this pair will not go down it can still go down(CHF strength) but not because of SNB intervention.
And I will only trade long once it meets my criteria and goes above 137 with PA.
Hope my understanding of SNB interference is correct.
Thanks
AS
  • #13,206
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:17am Jul 25, 2010 11:17am
Quoting stewrigh
I hear what ur saying but... I can't ignore the funnymentals. The stress tests were out Friday and I think this will have a negative impact on the markets the Euro could sell off across the board - but thats just me speculating.

Also the Euro is very weak anyway - Germans are moving lots of cash to Switzerland for instance.
Hi Stewrigh
After stress test results were announced on Friday EU went up 100 pips. Only 7 out of 91 bank failed the test, is it bullish or bearish? May be big boys will give it a second thought and push it down, I don't know. German GDP last quarter was 1.60 % and it was just for the quarter not annualised. So if Germans are moving to Swiss then I don't know the reason may be some one knows it. What will make USD move stronger? I know the answer and the answer is "Not fundamentals but big boys might will".
Thanks
AS
  • #13,207
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:43am Jul 25, 2010 11:43am
Quoting simpleman
Hi Stewrigh
After stress test results were announced on Friday EU went up 100 pips. Only 7 out of 91 bank failed the test, is it bullish or bearish? May be big boys will give it a second thought and push it down, I don't know. German GDP last quarter was 1.60 % and it was just for the quarter not annualised. So if Germans are moving to Swiss then I don't know the reason may be some one knows it. What will make USD move stronger? I know the answer and the answer is "Not fundamentals but big boys might will".
Thanks
AS
The thing about the tests is whether they were stressful enough, a lot of analysts have been applying their own tests this weekend and many more banks appear to have failed. So the question is will anyone believe the tests, if not its bearish.

The USD strengthens on risk aversion and weakens whhen ppl are more confident i.e. prepared to take more risk, because its still the worlds reserve currency and it's regarded as a safe-haven.

The Germans hate the Euro almost as much as the Americans and it is rumoured that Germany might be the second country, after Greece, to leave the Euro.

BTW, don't think I'd wanna be long the AUDCAD ATM.
  • #13,208
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:39pm Jul 25, 2010 1:39pm
Since there seems to be some discussion presently about bank stress tests, etc. I thought this might be a good time to bring up a "funnyamental" issue. And that is...

How exactly are currencies valued? Being a currency trader, or in traing to be one, surely you have asked yourself this question at some time or another. I certainly have.

As we are using a price action oriented method of technical analysis here, we don't usually discuss the fundamentals of currency valuation, rather we only make trading decisions based on what we see on the charts. However, the politcal, economic, and many other fundamental factors can and do influence the short and long term values of a country's currency.

Considering the many things affecting their valuation and the interaction between these factors and how complicated they can be, not to mention how difficult it can be to get accurate information about the internal workings of these countries, in my opinion technical analysis, and in particular PASR, is the more useful analytic method for the retail trader such as myself.

I suppose there will always be a debate between fundamental and technical analysts as to which works better. Some even say you need to consider both if you are to get a "true" picture of where prices are headed. Let the debate rage on.

I have attached a two page excerpt from Tom Lydon's book iMoney, Profitable ETF Strategies for Every Investor which outlines some of what influences the value of a currency. You might find it interesting in terms of general education.

Dave
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip How Currencies Are Valued.zip   8 KB | 783 downloads
  • #13,209
  • Jul 25, 2010 2:40pm Jul 25, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting PistolDave
I suppose there will always be a debate between fundamental and technical analysts as to which works better. Some even say you need to consider both if you are to get a "true" picture of where prices are headed. Let the debate rage on.

Attachment
Thanks Dave, I never trade fundamentals and only use technicals to trade. I have read some very good posts by a very good fundamental trader but I read them one year after he wrote those post and what I noticed was he was buying on top and selling on bottoms. There was another trader who was calling himself fundamental trader but he was using charts for entry and exits and for me he wasn't fundamental analyst infact he was technical analyst. Fundamentalist in my opinion can be long term traders as shrot term moves expectation by fundamental analyst is probably very difficult.

I like the attachements and during my CFA studies I learned a lot about valuation of currencies which in reality do not work.

Let's get back to techs.

AS
  • #13,210
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:43pm Jul 25, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting No1Optimist
24 July 2010...
I am still hoping to receive opinions. So far, zilch!

BTW entry PASR for me would be at least a strong bullish candle closing above R at 0.9000

Thanks, Roger
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,211
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:22pm Jul 25, 2010 6:22pm
Hi Roger,

Can you use 'psycho' level of 0.9 as a valid SR?
If not, we may have to wait for a retrace to 0.885 before we can go long, in my opinion.

By the way, there have been numerous references to "ATM" trades recently. Aren't these supposed to be simple and guaranteed like going to a hole in the wall?

Cheers,
Rajesh
  • #13,212
  • Edited 7:09pm Jul 25, 2010 6:43pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Roger,

Can you use 'psycho' level of 0.9 as a valid SR?
If not, we may have to wait for a retrace to 0.885 before we can go long, in my opinion.

By the way, there have been numerous references to "ATM" trades recently. Aren't these supposed to be simple and guaranteed like going to a hole in the wall?

Cheers,
Rajesh
On my charts there are numerous times when there has been PA at, or close to 0.9000.

So it is first SR and second Psycho.

I am still a novice in the use of Strat's methods, and am trying to apply the method strictly.

All my trades are intended to be ATM according to Strat's definition, but I always open 2 positions with a TP at the next SR on one of the positions.

The other one I allow the market to decide.

Certainly retracement to 0.8835 (my data) with PA could provide a good entry, with potential to make around 150 pips.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,213
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:32pm Jul 25, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting No1Optimist
I am still hoping to receive opinions. So far, zilch!

BTW entry PASR for me would be at least a strong bullish candle closing above R at 0.9000

Thanks, Roger
Roger, how are you, my friend.

I looked at your analysis a day or two ago. I was waiting to see what Strat was going to say. He probably will comment on it when he gets time. I'll give you my 2c worth until then. Let me take another look.

Dave
  • #13,214
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:08pm Jul 25, 2010 10:08pm
Roger,

I think you are correct in your analysis. The way I'm reading it, you are intending to wait for a break through the psycho 0.9000 level then look for a PASR setup to get long in the market. That seems reasonable. I don't know how important that level is, but if I thought it was I would want to see a close above that level and then a pullback to either the 20ma or some support level combined with a bullish reversal candle to become a buyer. But that is just my opinion.

Certainly, considering the strong bullish PA we have seen over the last week or more in the Aud pairs, I would want to see some sign of sellers beginning to take control before I would consider going short. With that said, I am still looking for an opportunity to sell because I'm still thinking this could be a retracement after the huge bear candle on the big boss. How far up price can move in this case and still be considered a retracement is not clear to me. Possibly even as far up as the swing top at 0.9390. That is one (of many) things I am confused about! The hard decision for me many times is when there is a big controlling candle like this, should I wait for the possible retracement to be over and trade in the direction of the controlling candle, or should I trade against it until the retracement ends (which it very well may not do anytime soon). Maybe when the market starts making HH's and HL's like now, then maybe it is telling us that that what we thought was a retracement is actually a resumption of the intermediate term uptrend. I would like to have a better understanding of that.

This reminds me of what we were discussing a few days ago where the question was basically; what is the trend you should trade? Well, every price movement is a trend within a trend within a trend. And you should be trading the immediate trend. Since May 25 the market has put in HH & HL on the boss, so by definition it is in an uptrend. And according to our rules we would be looking for a low-risk PASR entry on the worker chart to go long.

So, if you choose to disregard the big boss bearish controlling candle, then going long (at good PA) would seem to be the correct choice rather than wait for a retracement to end. As I mentioned, I am not seeing a setup to go either way presently so I am standing aside.

Waiting for the retracement to end and for a beginning of another swing down is what I am looking for in the AUDCHF.

As you can see, I obviously have a lot to learn. Hopefully, I didn't create more confusion.

Dave
  • #13,215
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:30am Jul 26, 2010 12:30am
[quote=No1Optimist;3896116]24 July 2010
AUDUSD end of week analysis

Conclusion: A LONG ATM trade with suitable PA above the strong psycho R at 0.9000 has a potential to deliver about 150 pips before the next R at 0.9165


Roger
I agree with the long sentiment, but to me the ATM trade buying at resistance is just gambling, have you asked yourself why not to take the trade.
I would like to see some retracment say 88.00/50 and then look for PA, this for me would be a more suitable trade.

Frank
  • #13,216
  • Jul 26, 2010 3:07am Jul 26, 2010 3:07am
[quote=Money Magnet;3898557]
Quoting No1Optimist
24 July 2010
AUDUSD end of week analysis

Conclusion: A LONG ATM trade with suitable PA above the strong psycho R at 0.9000 has a potential to deliver about 150 pips before the next R at 0.9165


Roger
I agree with the long sentiment, but to me the ATM trade buying at resistance is just gambling, have you asked yourself why not to take the trade.
I would like to see some retracment say 88.00/50 and then look for PA, this for me would be a more suitable trade.

Frank
Thanks Frank.

Perhaps you missed the following quotation from my later post:

"entry PASR for me would be at least a strong bullish candle closing above R at 0.9000"

I would not be buying at R, but trying to enter long 10-15 pips above the bullish bar which closed above R.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,217
  • Jul 26, 2010 4:30am Jul 26, 2010 4:30am
Quoting No1Optimist
I am still hoping to receive opinions. So far, zilch!

BTW entry PASR for me would be at least a strong bullish candle closing above R at 0.9000

Thanks, Roger
Aussie boke 8856 res and I'd be waiting for PASR there to go long, to 93/94 and more.

Kiwi dealing with res at 7310 and close to root tl from march 08, 7174 coud be a support to look at. Looks to me like a trade that could last a few months??

Hope it helps
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #13,218
  • Jul 26, 2010 8:08am Jul 26, 2010 8:08am
[quote=No1Optimist;3898917]
Quoting Money Magnet

Thanks Frank.

Perhaps you missed the following quotation from my later post:

"entry PASR for me would be at least a strong bullish candle closing above R at 0.9000"

I would not be buying at R, but trying to enter long 10-15 pips above the bullish bar which closed above R.
If you are not in the trade already, I think opening a trade above .9000 is a little high risk. By the time we have PA, there is not much room to go then the next major R. .9050 is also around 78.6% retracement level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,219
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:43am Jul 26, 2010 9:43am
It's good to see my charts S&R levels respected to a degree. It's building my confidence in my abilities to see and trade them. A big thank you to Blackeagle and Strat for the explanations earler in the thread. I'm still only around page 300 in my studies, but it's slowly coming together. They say you can't rush a good thing, hope they're right. Don't ask me who the "they" is cuz I'm not sure.

On a side note, I stayed up waiting for Dr. Joe's ghost, but he never showed.... , I was hoping to pick his brain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,220
  • Jul 26, 2010 2:15pm Jul 26, 2010 2:15pm
EURJPY,

watching this like a hawk as part of the path of learning. I say like a hawk what I really mean is will look at it when New York closes. I thinks this is what is called price action at support/resistance? Looks like the momentum is getting very week on the Boss But the trend is still down?
The hammer of the week ending 27th June has taken out all recent lows which may have been a LL. There is a BUOB forming on the Big Boss but a few more days left in the month before this can be confirmed.
To put into practice what I have learnt so far, patience! There is no trade to be made on EURJPY but fascinating to watch.
Just a few obsevations to get this thread going again, it's been pretty quite since Strat posted his test!
Strat, please post another test soon for STRATegy so simple peolpe must over complicate the basics of PASR.
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