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  • #3,281
  • Jul 24, 2010 7:22pm Jul 24, 2010 7:22pm
Quote
are you from germany too?

Yep, from germany.
  • #3,282
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:14am Jul 25, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Tony112
this week grew the accout at 143%, you have to keep in mind that I don't post all trades I take since like you said, I take some support and resistance trades, some, some 5-20 pip candles trades (5 sec) and the opens as well... all 0SL oriented

tony, which are your preferred s/r levels ? from 1min or 5min, or,...chart? do you also use trendlines?
  • #3,283
  • Jul 25, 2010 3:47am Jul 25, 2010 3:47am
Hello people, thanks for this awesome strategy and thread!

One question though, is it possible to trade this strategy with the 1 min timeframe ? If so what would the minimum one minute candle size be ?

Thanks
  • #3,284
  • Edited 5:08am Jul 25, 2010 4:37am | Edited 5:08am
Does reaching 0SL mean we gradually adjust the initial stop loss to 0 pips?
  • #3,285
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:27am Jul 25, 2010 5:27am
Quote
Does reaching 0SL mean we gradually adjust the initial stop loss to 0 pips?

Yes, that's right. We start a trade with SL of 1-2 pips and as we see price hopefully travel away we adjust the SL to breakeven (SL0) as we feel. When price travels 3-7 pips away from entry I'm most likely already BE.
  • #3,286
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:28am Jul 25, 2010 5:28am
Hi tony,

thanks for sharing your entry. I am a half pro backtester and tested it from 5/10 to 7/19 (about 50 days).
My tests consisted:

-Market entry if 1 pip move after entry (example: London Open)
-If entry, market is not allowed to move more than 0.8 pips against the open (example: open 1,2900: In: 1,2901 stopmax: 1,28992)
else 3 pips lost (incl. spread)

-If market moved 5 pips in your favor and returns your lost is 0 pips

I tested your setup with different target profits.

For example at London open best results were close at about 70 pips. If you go for 140 pips market returned every time !

on London open you had 4 big moves out of 50 days.

result:
4 days big move
9 days at least 5 pip move in your favor (lost: 0 pips)
about 37 days return under 5 pips and lost.

Best result:
Win: 4*70 pips (=280 pips)
Lost: 37*3 pips (=111 pips)

In first view this looks good but on second it is not because this is the optimized result.

realistical result:
Win: 4*50 pips (=200 pips) (this is more safe if volatilty should go down else you could loose one big move because of return)
lost: 37*4 pips (=148 pips) (this is the problem I want to discuss with you:SLIPPAGE)

So at the end my results are not very good. You can earn money with it but my biggest problem on give it a try is the
slippage:
Example: Open: 1,2900 : sudden move to 1,2902 (long) (slipage:1 pip !)

So there's a big problem: how do you manage your entrys ? It is impossible to set buy and sell orders in few seconds after the open to avoid slippage.
There's also an other problem i don't understand:
You say you set the SL as fast as possible to 0SL.
But what if market returns to the open(you get stopped out on 0SL) and moves then and you fail a big move
(besides: that happened not one time on all 4 big moves, market moved immediately, no return).

I think the system is worth a try but the entry has to be optimized but I don't know how. (writing an EA for Metatrader is no solution.As far as i know you cannot
set a stop buy/stop sell 1 pip away after the open and also it take to long to be activated !! (EA's only work on move by the instrument you choose(eu/usd) ).

Tony, are you going in the market with an ordinary market order ?

Bye Jack
  • #3,287
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:46am Jul 25, 2010 5:46am
We are seeing just one type of entry here and that is misleading..One thing you have to stress here Tony is that you cannot trade this system on micro lots or mini lots and hope to make a living.

You need to trade large so that the 1 or 2 big hits each month give you a return

its like placing 10 pence on only 100/1 horses.. you lose or break even 95% of the time and then you get 2 wins at 100/1...its grown your account by 200% ok great but left you with only enough money to buy a big mac

Play the same scenario betting Ģ1000 a horse the account grows the same but now we have some decent cash in return

Tony enters several times on several different technics .. if you trade the pure system as laid out in post one I believe your findings are correct.

One way to avoid slippage is to have a traffic light entry

You get the 1st candle over 1pip...you get the green light..you now wait for the 1st candle in the opposite direction and you enter at that point ..that should avoid slippage

ie..1pip green candle..10 secs later we get a red candle...go long

P
  • #3,288
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:47am Jul 25, 2010 5:47am
Quoting alfanzereii
Yes, that's right. We start a trade with SL of 1-2 pips and as we see price hopefully travel away we adjust the SL to breakeven (SL0) as we feel. When price travels 3-7 pips away from entry I'm most likely already BE.
Allrighty; thank you!
  • #3,289
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:21am Jul 25, 2010 6:21am
Intersting aspect Paulus,

I will check results again with that strategy. On long term it could be more profitable cause of better entrypoint on all trades and therefore less lost, good work, thanks !

I let you know the results,
greets
Jack
  • #3,290
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:43am Jul 25, 2010 6:43am
Ok, here the results of going in the trade on a retrace to 1 pip.
example:

open: 1,2900 ->green light at: 1,2901 (but because of slippage it moved to 1,2903 immediately): buyorder at 1,2901 or better: market entry on 1,2901 (now the slippage works for you

The results are:

loosing trades go back from 3-4 pips to definetly 2,5 pips lost. That's good !

winning trades: you missed 3 of 4 winning trades

result: approximately:
37*2,5 pips = -92,5 pips
1*70 pips= +70 pips...

So it does not make sense in that case but a good method, Paulus, on other systems.

More Ideas ?
Jack
  • #3,291
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:52am Jul 25, 2010 6:52am
Quoting JackintheBox
More Ideas ?
Jack
Have you checked for high impact events (report releases, unemployment statistics, economic indices etc)?

I am going to forward test this strategy on a demo account starting tomorrow.
  • #3,292
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:16am Jul 25, 2010 7:16am
Quoting JackintheBox
Ok, here the results of going in the trade on a retrace to 1 pip.
example:

open: 1,2900 ->green light at: 1,2901 (but because of slippage it moved to 1,2903 immediately): buyorder at 1,2901 or better: market entry on 1,2901 (now the slippage works for you

The results are:

loosing trades go back from 3-4 pips to definetly 2,5 pips lost. That's good !

winning trades: you missed 3 of 4 winning trades

result: approximately:
37*2,5 pips = -92,5 pips
1*70 pips= +70 pips...

So it does not make sense in that case but a good method,...
hey ho never mind with a stop of 2pips its asking alot a sneeze and your at break even..its a good job Forex is not like equity futures I use to pay $1.70 per trade round trip and still had the bid and offer but at least all the data was the same no matter what broker

P
  • #3,293
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:18am Jul 25, 2010 7:18am
Quoting knukk
Have you checked for high impact events (report releases, unemployment statistics, economic indices etc)?

I am going to forward test this strategy on a demo account starting tomorrow.

Yes thats good.. make a note all all news releases etc etc which Im sure can be simply found and then trade the 1st 5 pips candle in the direction after the news but either clip st a standard 50 pips or use some sort of trailing sl..this would at least give 3-4 trades per day still use the break even move though

P
  • #3,294
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:37am Jul 25, 2010 7:37am
Quoting Paulus
Yes thats good.. make a note all all news releases etc etc which Im sure can be simply found and then trade the 1st 5 pips candle in the direction after the news but either clip st a standard 50 pips or use some sort of trailing sl..this would at least give 3-4 trades per day still use the break even move though

P
Yes. This will be the first forex strategy I will test seriously.

So the next week my plan is to screen/trade (as far as money management allows me) every London, Frankfurt and New York opening as well as these high impact events:

  1. New Home Sales on Monday (tomorrow)
  2. CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday
  3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m on Wednesday
  4. Unemployment Claims on Thursday
  5. Advance GDP q/q on Friday


I will only trade EURUSD using the 0.9-spread broker mentioned earlier in the thread restricting myself to 1 % risk per trade.

Regarding entries: I am assuming there is a reason why Tony changed the strategy from entering on X pips+ bars to opening bar direction. For tomorrow I planned on the opening bar approach, but what are your experiences with using X pips+ bars as entries? What about entries which are equal to opening bar's close +/- X pips or equal to last close before opening +/- X pips?

  • #3,295
  • Jul 25, 2010 12:51pm Jul 25, 2010 12:51pm
this week ill be trading the biggest digits once again
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #3,296
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:14pm Jul 25, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting hiiqtrading
tony, which are your preferred s/r levels ? from 1min or 5min, or,...chart? do you also use trendlines?

hey tony, maybe you can answer my question? or are you just trading the opening this week?

from my observations london is much, much more important than ny open, what do you think?
  • #3,297
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:19pm Jul 25, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting hiiqtrading
hey tony, maybe you can answer my question? or are you just trading the opening this week?

from my observations london is much, much more important than ny open, what do you think?
hi, I will trade both opens with all major support and resistance on the 5 min chart... all with 0SL attempts.. London and NY are both success for me, I've had lots of success with NY recently
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #3,298
  • Jul 25, 2010 1:38pm Jul 25, 2010 1:38pm
ok, see you tomorrow for some nice PIPS !!


itīs like christmas
  • #3,299
  • Jul 25, 2010 2:32pm Jul 25, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting hiiqtrading
ok, see you tomorrow for some nice PIPS !!


itīs like christmas
everyday's Christmas, i get my toys way before Christmas
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #3,300
  • Jul 25, 2010 8:59pm Jul 25, 2010 8:59pm
we're building a support watch out, I'll let you know when something looks good
Invest in alarm clocks
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