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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,401
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:13pm Jul 23, 2010 7:13pm
Quoting Custos
yeah, pa confirmation is definitely a possibility. hm, however, I always feel kind of uncomfortable to get in, when price has already moved away from the level I was looking at. But definitely a possibility.

Yeah, you raise another point against waiting for PA. We all have other things to do. Do you wanna stare all day long at the chart for the perfect PA setup at a level? hm, I personally like to identify more levels in the meantime. But don't get me wrong, maybe in half a year I tell you the opposite, just my opinion right now at this stage....
I definitely like touch trades ... as this strategy can give more flexibility and one can do a lot of other things in the mean time and given the 9 to never, and stressful job i have i would want that sort of flexibility flexibility as i cannot/unable to watch for PA confirmations to happen.

Now, at least on one occasion, I was thinking of waiting for a PA confirmation on a longer TF i.e. h4.

1) For those pairs where the levels are not as clear/well defined once can probably set an alert and wait for some sort of exhaustion bar to appear before entering (may be my eyes are
not trained as yet for these type of pairs)

I guess the best strategy will be clear through trial & error .... infact i'll post some unclear levels on the choppy chart and see what you guys say.
  • #7,402
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:31pm Jul 23, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting randomperson
It makes life difficult if you zoom in like I do. My trading results have declined since doing touch entries without confirmation of any sort, so going to resort back to my old method while looking for something a little more time-efficient in the forex market.
Hi Random,
sorry, are you saying that due to touch trades your trading results have declined across the various markets you trade? and what to you mean when you say " you zoom in like I do"

Ciao
  • #7,403
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:43pm Jul 23, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting Custos
I got a setup for the brave ones

eur/gbp h1. But you would be standing against very big momentum. Trend is also down, so I am gonna take it, but with a very small lot-size.

And you, any setup?
This puppy worked out well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #7,404
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:08pm Jul 23, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi Random,
sorry, are you saying that due to touch trades your trading results have declined across the various markets you trade? and what to you mean when you say " you zoom in like I do"

Ciao
it just means i zoom in on a pivot (i.e. shorter timeframe) and often get a r:r of around 1:10-1:20. Sometimes waiting for something clear can take a while. That is why I was ranting a bit... No, I haven't been trading forex too long, just other markets. Forex lacks some stuff that other markets have, such as volume. I'm still getting used to it's quirks. I have been doing touch entries off limits for the last month and noticed a decline in my results, taken into account summer sessions. So...looking around...trying to spark some ideas on something that allows for less screentime. Won't be possible to achieve the same r:r without babysitting the trade...so thinking upping my entry TF is probably best for that goal; perhaps just off the same chart.
  • #7,405
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:07pm Jul 23, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Custos
I got a setup for the brave ones

eur/gbp h1. But you would be standing against very big momentum. Trend is also down, so I am gonna take it, but with a very small lot-size.

And you, any setup?
Hi nice spot there! May I know at what entry point and stop loss would you entered this trade at? I would have entered at 0.8343 (Close of the candle) and SL at 0.8319 (0.8324 - 5 pips). SL hit by 1 pip and reverse! Perhaps such large momentum trade I could have did a little larger SL.

Another similar trade in which I am in is the USDJPY on the D1. Also quite strong momentum down but so far working out fine.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP H1.jpg Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY D1.jpg Size: 91 KB
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,406
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:37am Jul 24, 2010 2:37am
Quoting Jliuuu
Hi nice spot there! May I know at what entry point and stop loss would you entered this trade at? I would have entered at 0.8343 (Close of the candle) and SL at 0.8319 (0.8324 - 5 pips). SL hit by 1 pip and reverse! Perhaps such large momentum trade I could have did a little larger SL.

Another similar trade in which I am in is the USDJPY on the D1. Also quite strong momentum down but so far working out fine.
Look at my chart in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7393

You see that it is important to not just take the most recent bounce into consideration but all the historic bounces as well. I entered at the upper blue line and put my stop 5 pips below my second blue line.

Yeah your usd/jpy chart is a good example for a demand level. Well spotted.
  • #7,407
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:38am Jul 24, 2010 2:38am
Quoting randomperson
Yea...this is the pain I've learned with forex compared to futures....

yeah, definitely important to stick to something that works for you.
  • #7,408
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:42am Jul 24, 2010 2:42am
Quoting MktScape
I definitely like touch trades ... as this strategy can give more flexibility and one can do a lot of other things in the mean time and given the 9 to never, and stressful job i have i would want that sort of flexibility flexibility as i cannot/unable to watch for PA confirmations to happen.

Now, at least on one occasion, I was thinking of waiting for a PA confirmation on a longer TF i.e. h4.

1) For those pairs where the levels are not as clear/well defined once can probably set an alert and wait for some sort of exhaustion bar to appear before...
also not a bad idea with going for longer tf's and waiting for PA there.

But I gotta disagree on your idea with doing that with levels which are not clear. The level gotta be clear in that sense that most traders in the world can see it. Otherwise you soon gonna identify lots of levels which are actually not there.


cheers
  • #7,409
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:31am Jul 24, 2010 4:31am
Quoting Custos
Look at my chart in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7393

You see that it is important to not just take the most recent bounce into consideration but all the historic bounces as well. I entered at the upper blue line and put my stop 5 pips below my second blue line.

Yeah your usd/jpy chart is a good example for a demand level. Well spotted.
Ah I missed those past level as I didn't consider them major momentum jumps, but they were actually acting as good supports too.

Just 1 observation, your entry point is on the lower of the candlestick body for a upward reversal (while Sam Seiden's videos usually shows the top of the candlestick body). This seem to be much more accurate touch turning points, even close to the pip as I compared it to my USDJPY and EURUSD trades.

Lesser draw down on the trade and smaller stop loss, but more possibility on missing the trade perhaps? I'll have to check this out more!
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,410
  • Jul 24, 2010 7:46am Jul 24, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Jliuuu
Ah I missed those past level as I didn't consider them major momentum jumps, but they were actually acting as good supports too.

Just 1 observation, your entry point is on the lower of the candlestick body for a upward reversal (while Sam Seiden's videos usually shows the top of the candlestick body). This seem to be much more accurate touch turning points, even close to the pip as I compared it to my USDJPY and EURUSD trades.

Lesser draw down on the trade and smaller stop loss, but more possibility on missing the trade perhaps? I'll have to...
yeah, I was kind of talking about that in these posts:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7337
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7351
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7376
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7380

I like the small drawdown idea. Rather missing some trades but getting in with small DD.
  • #7,411
  • Jul 24, 2010 10:39am Jul 24, 2010 10:39am
Quoting Custos
also not a bad idea with going for longer tf's and waiting for PA there.

But I gotta disagree on your idea with doing that with levels which are not clear. The level gotta be clear in that sense that most traders in the world can see it. Otherwise you soon gonna identify lots of levels which are actually not there.


cheers
hmm... good point.
  • #7,412
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:16am Jul 24, 2010 11:16am
If I understand correctly, you're looking at former supply zones turned into demand zone and looking for a future opportunity to long them; demand zone turn into supply zone and likewise to short them.

For me in addition, I would look for huge momentum bars (with slight indecision before that, shown by smaller bars) when price leave that level as this signals a large imbalance of buyers and sellers. Hopefully when prices return to that level, there is still this large imbalance. This also is much easier to spot and typically has a large R:R. Some examples can be seen in the EURJPY pair recently.

Scanning back thru other various charts, this obviously don't work out 100% of the time and TP targets don't always get met. One trouble is that I may tend to exit a trade too early only to see hit it the TP (like the EURUSD one as I wanted to lock in profits) and have seen other examples of trades going all the way to stop loss after reaching 50% of TP target. I definitely have to scan thru more examples to see which happens more frequently to determine the best course of action for exits! But I believe with such a high R:R and good trade winning %, the long term expectancy is very positive.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H4.jpg Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H1.jpg Size: 109 KB
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,413
  • Jul 24, 2010 12:52pm Jul 24, 2010 12:52pm
ok ... here we go ... I have highlighted the resistance/supply zone on this chart which has a historical significance including pretty strong down runs ....anyone else on board .... Custos?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF-H1.jpg Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF-D.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #7,414
  • Jul 24, 2010 2:22pm Jul 24, 2010 2:22pm
Here is another one ... the green resistance line above has been a pivot and heavy supply zone historically.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY-H4.jpg Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY-H4 - ZoomedOut.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #7,415
  • Jul 24, 2010 3:39pm Jul 24, 2010 3:39pm
This pair has been acting quite bullish ...broke through the 1st resistance without coming back to retest it and now pushing through the second resistance level Will anyone consider entering long at this stage or wait for a pullback to the second level or has some other plan in mind?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD-H4-Closeup.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #7,416
  • Jul 24, 2010 6:53pm Jul 24, 2010 6:53pm
I was watching Sam Sieden's video and thought to share some info on Gaps. Attached charts are not mine i just annotated them a bit. Novice gaps are to be faded and professional gaps to be entered in pullback.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Novice Gap Down.jpg Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Novice Gap Up.jpg Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Professional Gaps.jpg Size: 47 KB
  • #7,417
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:48pm Jul 24, 2010 11:48pm
Hi MktScape, very nice graphs there and thanks for the info on gaps!

AUDCHF and AUDUSD - These pairs have great potential for drops
NZDJPY - I'm not too sure about this as the range seem to be quite large, thus lowering the R:R

These are the AUD graphs from what I see and they both have 2 potential zones to reverse.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF H1.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4.jpg Size: 102 KB
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,418
  • Jul 25, 2010 4:52am Jul 25, 2010 4:52am
Quoting Jliuuu
If I understand correctly, you're looking at former supply zones turned into demand zone and looking for a future opportunity to long them; demand zone turn into supply zone and likewise to short them.

For me in addition, I would look for huge momentum bars (with slight indecision before that, shown by smaller bars) when price leave that level as this signals a large imbalance of buyers and sellers. Hopefully when prices return to that level, there is still this large imbalance. This also is much easier to spot and typically has a large R:R. Some...
again, taking early partial profit might be the way and moving stop to b/e. You gotta do something consistently.
  • #7,419
  • Jul 25, 2010 4:53am Jul 25, 2010 4:53am
Quoting MktScape
ok ... here we go ... I have highlighted the resistance/supply zone on this chart which has a historical significance including pretty strong down runs ....anyone else on board .... Custos?
looks good, however I don't have that pair with my broker, so won't be on board
  • #7,420
  • Jul 25, 2010 4:55am Jul 25, 2010 4:55am
Quoting MktScape
Here is another one ... the green resistance line above has been a pivot and heavy supply zone historically.
have marked up the same level
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