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  • #13,061
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:09pm Jul 18, 2010 4:09pm
A quick note on two trades I entered a week ago or so (6 July).
Long EURGBP and Long AUDUSD.

The trades have worked out well and by my plan I should still be in them [ie wait to be stopped out ].
But fear greed and little people in my head got the better of me, I closed out way too soon, probably after just a few days for no good reason except I saw a profit sitting there and took it. Of course missing out on far more profits by doing so.
Getting this right - just hangin on to a trade and letting it ride is the toughest thing. And its what is going to bring the trading success too so its vital I get it right.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #13,062
  • Jul 19, 2010 2:50am Jul 19, 2010 2:50am
Quoting glyder
But fear greed and little people in my head got the better of me, I closed out way too soon, probably after just a few days for no good reason except I saw a profit sitting there and took it. Of course missing out on far more profits by doing so.
From my understanding plan your trade and then trade your plan, then do not monitor it during the day and keep the gremlins at bay. This is what makes it stress free belief in your plan, obviously you did not believe in your plan in which case you should have not taken it? But you did take a profit this time.
  • #13,063
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:30am Jul 19, 2010 4:30am
Quoting Blackeagle
A nice, clean downtrend since 2009 and are we near the end of it? Why not? Check out recent volatility. It is common to see this much of volatility during trend changes. The boss bar with blue arrow has 1514 pips range and still controlling the price since then. If price manages to move higher of that bar, we can say the trend has turned up. The trendline on worker chart is being tested for the third time since May.
Blackeagle, thanks for your knowledge.
I'm a new member.
Can you show me method to check out volatility?
  • #13,064
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:37am Jul 19, 2010 7:37am
Quoting glyder
A quick note on two trades I entered a week ago or so (6 July).
Long EURGBP and Long AUDUSD.

The trades have worked out well and by my plan I should still be in them [ie wait to be stopped out ].
But fear greed and little people in my head got the better of me, I closed out way too soon, probably after just a few days for no good reason except I saw a profit sitting there and took it. Of course missing out on far more profits by doing so.
Getting this right - just hangin on to a trade and letting it ride is the toughest thing. And its what is...
Hey Glyder,
Great to hear that you were successful! I agree that it is extremely tough to not run with the cash as soon as its in hand. Especially if you have been unsuccessful in the past. I have absolutely no problem taking a loss or having a stop loss hit but I have an incredibly hard time waiting through a retrace. Banking the first 100 pips on lower volatility pairs helps me with this but on many trades I will still take full profit at the next major resistance or at PA near those levels.

On your aud/usd trade I would likely have been out at 8780 level or below the pause bars if that level wasn't reached on my data. I wouldn't beat yourself up too bad just try to follow your plan better next time or modify it to taking full profit at major SR for a while until you can build up the mental strength through experience to hold on for the longer haul.

Strat often mentions that we have to find our comfort zone and trade within it until we get confident enough to take our trading to the next step. I will sometimes revert to taking full profit at first SR depending on how confident I feel about the trade. I realize that eventually I'll be able to recognize and do full trend trading complete with compounding, but I am not ready yet so I have to trade the best I can with where I'm at.

I don't' know if that makes much sense as I'm still pretty tired this morning but It's some of the trading emotion I'm dealing with (I'm sure others are too) and it often helps to know you are not alone. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #13,065
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:30pm Jul 19, 2010 4:30pm
Hi Strat,
Should we call this a coil.
Thanks
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  • #13,066
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:46pm Jul 19, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting Blackeagle
If EURUSD will continue its recent upward move, we need to see a weekly close above 1.30 for a possible 1.37 test, IMO. If not, a close below 1.29 would be encouraging for bears. As always, watch out for PA.
Yes and we are back in the waiting room again! This seems to be a pretty common occurrence for this pair this year.

The Boss has hit the confluence of 20 and resistance but the Worker is not responding to it. If the EURUSD is still in the downtrend as we are so often reminded by the experts and talking heads, why aren't they now selling at R?

Is something a foot, Watson!

Are the sellers in the changing room putting on a different shirt? Or just maybe still in the pub?

I will also just add some Boss resistance at 1.33 if current momentum continues.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,067
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:55pm Jul 19, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting simpleman
Thanks Backeagle,
Good to see your post. I have tweaked my SR and now will wait for close above 114 and hopefully it will.
will wait for close above 114 and hopefully it will.

We don't care which way it goes - we just want it to go somewhere (other than sideways) and wherever PRICE goes, we, as obedient followers, will go with her!

Try not to get fixated on a direction - stay loose and flexible - we want to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,068
  • Jul 19, 2010 8:46pm Jul 19, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting Pitch30
Firstly, thank you Strat for your answer to my previous post.
Stress and risk management are exactly the areas where I still have a lot to learn (I'm now getting able not to overtrade, but I'm still encline to take too much risk...)

I want to share with you what I see on the GBPJPY; Thank you for your comments on what is right or wrong in this analyse.

Boss: trend is down. I quoted LL and LHs made by the pair since 1 year, and drew the resistance.
A LH is possibly forming now. Wait and see. As a support is present at 130, we have to wait for...
Stress and risk management are exactly the areas where I still have a lot to learn

(I'm now getting able not to overtrade, but I'm still encline to take too much risk...)

My friend, these two are the corner stones to our success.

Stress is what the Little People feed on and the last thing you want is to feed the Little People!

Read and UNDERSTAND all my posts on Planning the Trade and Trading the Plan and then EXECUTE it without deviation.

Risk Management is for YOUR protection and CAPITAL preservation. Without it, you will continue to blow account after account until you 1) either LEARN correct RISK MANAGEMENT or 2), you run out of money or 3) commit hari kari.

If you need confidence in PASR then only demo trade until you fully understand the method. Once understood and you are confident, trade REAL money but at the LOWEST pip value your broker offers.

I want to share with you what I see on the GBPJPY; Thank you for your comments on what is right or wrong in this analyse.

Boss: trend is down.

Long term trend is down BUT immediate trend is sideways

I quoted LL and LHs made by the pair since 1 year, and drew the resistance.
A LH is possibly forming now.

NO – it is in a trading range between 131 and 136

Wait and see. – Most definitely – I can but can you?

As a support is present at 130, we have to wait for price action at that level. A confirmed break of this level at a close could trigger a sell.

What if the support holds?

Worker: prices stalled between 136 and 131.50. MAs are gathered in the same area (congestion area). Double S at 132. S at 130. A break of these S could trigger a sell. Target: firstly 127, than 122.

Moreover (I know it is not the purpose of the thread to post on fundamentals, but I think it s worth to signal this), I already noticed that when the markets are down, this is usually a good thing for JPY, which takes profit of that against other currencies, and charts of major indexes are all showing that markets came to a small resistance and are nom pointing down again.

USDJPY is the proxy for the DOW – as the DOW falls, investors take their money out of $US and put it in bonds or gold or other safe havens. It doesn't always mean that JPY is being bought. This is EXACTLY why we are chart technical analysts – since we only trade after NY close and only trade the Worker, EVERYTHING has been already factored into PRICE by the time we do our analysis.

With your STRESS and RISK MANAGEMENT weaknesses and probably your OUT OF CONTROL Little People (GREED and FEAR), why on earth are you TRYING to trade GBPJPY?

First, BPJPY is NOT tradable for us on the Worker due to it being in consolidation.

Second, for new students, trading this pair is the FASTEST way to blow your accounts.

Until you know what you are doing and have confidence in both PASR and YOU, only trade EURUSD and USDJPY.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,069
  • Jul 19, 2010 9:13pm Jul 19, 2010 9:13pm
Strat,

I have been reading the answers you gave No1Optimist a few days ago dealing with how to determine the trend. I also looked at that document he posted that helps to explain the dominant, intermediate, short term, and immediate trend.

This is something I have had a lot of trouble understanding too. That idea you suggested about marking off the swings on the boss chart then looking at the worker to see how to get in with the immediate trend is very helpful.

Just to make sure I am understanding the concept I am posting this boss GBPUSD chart. Check to see if I am getting it right, if you don't mind.

I'm calling the green downtrend line the dominant trend. The blue is the intermediate, and the red is the short term trend. I assume the immediate trend is also along the red trendline presently since there has been no swing high confirmation on the boss yet. Until there is, the immediate trend will still be in effect and long trades would be the trades to take. Of course, you still have to consider the SR levels and where price is in relation to that.

Thanks for the help.

Dave

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd 07-19-2010.gif Size: 31 KB

  • #13,070
  • Jul 19, 2010 9:54pm Jul 19, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting strat
Yes and we are back in the waiting room again! This seems to be a pretty common occurrence for this pair this year.

The Boss has hit the confluence of 20 and resistance but the Worker is not responding to it. If the EURUSD is still in the downtrend as we are so often reminded by the experts and talking heads, why aren't they now selling at R?

Is something a foot, Watson!

Are the sellers in the changing room putting on a different shirt? Or just maybe still in the pub?

I will also just add some Boss resistance at 1.33 if current momentum...
Excellent point. I am awaiting E/J to confirm things. Will that range hold? The weekly close should reveal the next stage there and may thereby add some breathing room for those already long EURUSD, should it extend the current weekly bottom.
  • #13,071
  • Jul 19, 2010 10:14pm Jul 19, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting glyder
An attempt at some analysis of CADJPY.....

Big Boss - still in up trend yet looking weaker

Boss - uptrend has broken down below the trend line. Has now also retested the uptrend line - the former support became resistance.

Daily - down trend is in place, a series of LH and LLs.

Price - now at a strong support level (roughly speaking 81.50) that has held for weeks. It shows on the weekly and the daily charts.

At the moment no trade to make but I will be watching to see what price does at this area.
A break down through the support may...
An attempt at some analysis of CADJPY.....

Big Boss - still in up trend yet looking weaker

Why do you think it looks weaker? It is at support and this has been tested 16 times in the past 22 months so it is a PRICE which means something to this pair.

Stronger or weaker, it doesn't matter – just go with her wherever she goes after this PRICE.

Boss - uptrend has broken down below the trend line. Has now also retested the uptrend line - the former support became resistance.

All good stuff BUT it as not tested te lon term up TL. It as tested and been rejected at te current down TL. It is testing support now.

Daily - down trend is in place, a series of LH and LLs.

NO – the LLs have stopped at support.

Price - now at a strong support level (roughly speaking 81.50) that has held for weeks. It shows on the weekly and the daily charts.

Can’t you see the same support on the Big Boss?

At the moment no trade to make but I will be watching to see what price does at this area.

Good lad, if you can do this ALL the time, you are well on your way to successful trading.


A break down through the support may signal a trade, probably if price also breaks the 80.00 zone, or a return to the upper reaches of the trendline in the region of 84.00 may allow an entry for a short.

EDIT: forgot to mention the Long Bar of the week of 2nd May - looks like it might be a control bar and ties in with the support level, so a breach of the lows of this, just above the 81.50 will also be significant, I think.

No ‘’might’’ about it, it IS. These bars are so important to us. I wrote about these not long after they appeared – go back and read them but more importantly, UNDERSTAND what I wrote.

Doing good, glyder – hopefully your account reflects this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,072
  • Jul 19, 2010 10:26pm Jul 19, 2010 10:26pm
I don't know if it is Hong Kong Google or FF but I am having a difficult time accessing FF today.

Also, the ''g'' and ''h'' and a few other things on my keyboard have stopped working so I am having to use the On-Screen keyboard.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,073
  • Jul 20, 2010 12:26am Jul 20, 2010 12:26am
Quoting glyder
A quick note on two trades I entered a week ago or so (6 July).
Long EURGBP and Long AUDUSD.

The trades have worked out well and by my plan I should still be in them [ie wait to be stopped out ].
But fear greed and little people in my head got the better of me, I closed out way too soon, probably after just a few days for no good reason except I saw a profit sitting there and took it. Of course missing out on far more profits by doing so.
Getting this right - just hangin on to a trade and letting it ride is the toughest thing. And its what is...
A quick note on two trades I entered a week ago or so (6 July).
Long EURGBP and Long AUDUSD.

The trades have worked out well and by my plan I should still be in them [ie wait to be stopped out ].
But fear greed and little people in my head got the better of me, I closed out way too soon, probably after just a few days for no good reason except I saw a profit sitting there and took it. Of course missing out on far more profits by doing so.


EURGBP
Boss is governed by downtrend TL and PRICE is at confluence of resistance and 20 so this is a very good place to TP for 1st position.

AUDUSD
PRICE is at Boss resistance and approaching resistance on Worker. May not have buying interest to go higher just yet.

First MASTER basic PASR before attempting trend trading. If you can’t produce consistent profits from basic PASR over 12 months, you will never be successful at trend trading. It is a skill set that you can only acquire from experience of basic PASR trading (unless you have the DISCIPLINE to follow a mechanised system). Your Little People have not yet been educated in taking profits and sitting through trend draw downs.

I’m assuming you drive a car. Does this qualify you to drive and race an F1 car? This is the same as basic PASR to trend trading.

Getting this right - just hangin on to a trade and letting it ride is the toughest thing.

Oh Boy! (Buddy Holly 1957). If this is what you think trend trading is, then you, and your account, (bless its soul), are in for one wide awakening almighty HUGE shock!

Maybe driving that F1 car may be the better option for you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,074
  • Jul 20, 2010 12:42am Jul 20, 2010 12:42am
Quoting simpleman
Hi Strat,
Should we call this a coil.
Thanks
Should we call this a coil.

It is beginning to look like a coil but not the way you have numbered it.

The mess at the beginning where you have your ‘’?’’ is at support so that leg up to your ‘’1’’ does not count.

The count starts at your ‘’1’’, and ‘’1’’ goes where your ‘’2’’ is and ‘’2’’ goes where your ‘’3’’ is.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,075
  • Jul 20, 2010 1:46am Jul 20, 2010 1:46am
Quoting PistolDave
Strat,

I have been reading the answers you gave No1Optimist a few days ago dealing with how to determine the trend....
I have been reading the answers you gave No1Optimist a few days ago dealing with how to determine the trend. I also looked at that document he posted that helps to explain the dominant, intermediate, short term, and immediate trend.

This is something I have had a lot of trouble understanding too. That idea you suggested about marking off the swings on the boss chart then looking at the worker to see how to get in with the immediate trend is very helpful.

Just to make sure I am understanding the concept I am posting this boss GBPUSD chart. Check to see if I am getting it right, if you don't mind.

I'm calling the green downtrend line the dominant trend. The blue is the intermediate, and the red is the short term trend. I assume the immediate trend is also along the red trendline presently since there has been no swing high confirmation on the boss yet. Until there is, the immediate trend will still be in effect and long trades would be the trades to take. Of course, you still have to consider the SR levels and where price is in relation to that.

Yes, Dave you have got it right. What you have to do is remember that when trading the Worker, we want the very latest instructions from the Boss which is your red line.

I think many traders are distracted by the picture first recognised by the brain which is that down trend from Nov 2007 to Jan 2009. Because of that they say it is in a down trend and while technically it may be true (especially on a higher time frame), it does not help us to profitably trade the Worker.

Look at my mark up of your chart. Then remember that there are trends within trends within trends – you get the message. Also remember that to some traders, 3 bars can represent a trend while still others measure a trend over years.

We also need to remember that we are NOT trading the Boss, only using it to find what it is telling the Worker to do. If we were trading the Boss, we would be looking at the Big Boss to find its instructions to the Boss.

Of course, we need to remember that a small swing on the Boss can be multiple triple pips on the Worker.

Starting at the left of the Boss, we have the uptrend in the green box which is easily identified by the support of the Strat Shadow (No, Roy, not Hank Marvin!).

Since it is a nice stair stepping trend, we have those retraces or dips. The stair steps, up and down, are the immediate trend telling the Worker what to do.

The mess after the up trend is confusion as some buyers did not TP and are trying to push PRICE back up to TP at better PRICES. They don't know yet that the sellers have taken control and are fighting a losing battle but still the dogged and determined last of the buyers keep trying to push PRICE higher.

After the breakout below support, all the buyers are now sellers – BIG TIME – identified by the red box.

If you box the trends in like I have shown, then stand back and look at it.

What you should see is big fat candles instead of boxes – notice how they form their own patterns.

OK, this is a lot more information than you asked for and it has probably confused you. I just wanted to point out how much information there is on there.

In simple terms, you need to look at the Boss for its very latest instructions to the Worker then, using PASR, trade the Worker in accordance with the Boss’s latest instructions.

Dave, I know you and probably many others have struggled/are struggling with this but stick at it and I promise you, it WILL click. When it does click, you will wonder what all the fuss was about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd 07-19-2010.gif Size: 39 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,076
  • Jul 20, 2010 3:05am Jul 20, 2010 3:05am
Whatever you do, don't miss the GBPCAD Big Boss hanging man.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,077
  • Jul 20, 2010 3:11am Jul 20, 2010 3:11am
Hi Strat,
I have a follow-up question to your reply to Pistol Dave which greatly reinforced my understanding.

We are supposed to trade the Worker in line with the established immediate trend on the Boss. When the Boss is at SR and likely to reverse, is the reversal immediately tradeable?

To continue the GBPUSD example, if this week ends in a shooting star on the Boss touching the Resistance at 1.55, would it be sufficient to look for shorting opportunities on the Worker next week? Or do we need to wait for the Boss trend to be 'established' with a LL, LH, LL pattern? Or at least another bearish bar?

Regards,
Rajesh
  • #13,078
  • Jul 20, 2010 3:48am Jul 20, 2010 3:48am
Look at how the 20 on the Worker is earning its pay cheque (again and again etc) - but beware!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 41 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,079
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:00am Jul 20, 2010 4:00am
Quoting strat
Whatever you do, don't miss the GBPCAD Big Boss hanging man.
Don't see a hanging man on my chart and anyway I thought you debunked hanging men a long time ago.

However, what is much more worth watching is the expected BOC rate hike later today.
  • #13,080
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:12am Jul 20, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Strat,
I have a follow-up question to your reply to Pistol Dave which greatly reinforced my understanding.

We are supposed to trade the Worker in line with the established immediate trend on the Boss. When the Boss is at SR and likely to reverse, is the reversal immediately tradeable?

To continue the GBPUSD example, if this week ends in a shooting star on the Boss touching the Resistance at 1.55, would it be sufficient to look for shorting opportunities on the Worker next week? Or do we need to wait for the Boss trend to be 'established' with...
We are supposed to trade the Worker in line with the established immediate trend on the Boss. When the Boss is at SR and likely to reverse, is the reversal immediately tradeable?

How do you know it is likely to reverse? The BOSS needs to have PASR to trade it. But, if you mean trading the Boss, then that is a completely different mind set altogether and don't forget you will have bigger SL.

To continue the GBPUSD example, if this week ends in a shooting star on the Boss touching the Resistance at 1.55, would it be sufficient to look for shorting opportunities on the Worker next week? Or do we need to wait for the Boss trend to be 'established' with a LL, LH, LL pattern? Or at least another bearish bar?

No. There are two ways to trade this.

The first you would place a sell order ‘’x’’ pips below the low of the shooting star wherever this is on the Worker chart. This is the control bar until one of its extremes is taken out and the Worker can move up and down inside this bar.

The second is to look for PASR on the Worker but knowing that we have a shooting star control bar on the Boss
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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