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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,041
  • Jul 17, 2010 6:44pm Jul 17, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks shahab8b for one of the best analyses & thread . I do check it at time & subscribeb but today only I notice it in a commercial forum . Ok , carry on your good job & yes rated top it .
fontu

Hi Fontu,

Thank you for your appreciation.
  • #4,042
  • Jul 17, 2010 6:59pm Jul 17, 2010 6:59pm
A/U:

It's done rising.
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  • #4,043
  • Jul 17, 2010 7:43pm Jul 17, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U:
It's done rising.
Hi Shahab! Good to see you back to posting COT charts. On A/U, I'm glad to see that we both agree... we both have different methods to obtain our postures but they both do the job!!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_28_125.gif Here's to many pips next week!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,044
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:36am Jul 18, 2010 4:36am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience ,

Nice to see you here, thanks for the post.
I've been thinking I miss posting whatever crosses my mind. The thread is located in commercial while it has nothing to do with our service.Well that's due to my status now.And I just noticed a person rated my thread "terrible" at the fist day it has been moved here, that was a quick judgment!! I think there is a competition going on here, as the threads ordered in ranking(starts) in commercial from top to bottom.
Rated 5 stars of course for one of the best threads around.
  • #4,045
  • Edited 5:40am Jul 18, 2010 5:20am | Edited 5:40am
shahab8b, excellent thread! got a question about a possible setup for ya...

I'll post the breakdown of my analysis, and I'd appreciate any critique anyone cares to give...

Pair: USD/CHF
Direction: Long
Rational:

COT Report on signaling CHF overbought -
14 RSI pulling off from high of the last 12 months, but price recently pushed
higher = bearish divergence

14 RSI also well into overbought territory, and pulling back down.

Large Traders are at extreme level (100), as are speculative (retail) traders = MOST is priced in long... not enough left to push swissy up very probable.

95-96 level has been major S/R level, Support on end of september and beginning of january, and jan 21st, resistance mid march - mid april, july 8th, and now pushing right through to the low end of this level... currrently at 95.26.

COT report on signaling USD oversold -
14 RSI in oversold position, and has been for some time.

both large and small traders at extreme level (0) for some time... = MOST is priced in short... not enough left to push USD down.

82.00 - 82.50 level been both resistance (on march 25th, and april 8th,) and support (april 30th) - currently at 82.66, closing up from open of previous bar (on COT report)


PRICE ACTION: USD/CHF -

1.050 has been major level of both S and R - R on Dec 16th, 21st, Jan 20th,
Support on Jan 28th, Feb 2nd, Mar 16th, Mar 31st, april 12, 13th, July 6th, 7th, 8th.

Thursday trading broke price down below this level, only to be pushed up dramatically back to this level on Friday session. Essentially making a pin bar reversal on a major S/R level on the daily time frame... usually strong plays on their own, but with the COT information backing it up... even more powerful.

Conclusion of analysis:
Thursday break below 1.050 S/R level and subsequent push back on friday signals a false breakout where large traders popped stops and started to acquire Long USD/CHF positions.

Possible problems with analysis:

1. NOT a false breakout, but a legitimate breakdown on thursday, with a retracement back to 1.050, and will continue downtrend in force.

Likelyhood? Not likely, a retracement would likely stopped right around 1.050 level, only to turn down again. Instead, price pushed up over 40 pips to nearly the 1.0550 level, only to be pushed back down to the 1.0483 level, BUT THEN was pushed BACK up again OVER the 1.050 level... not exactly the move expected on a "true" breakdown of such a critical price level.

ALSO, the COT report is oversold USD and overbought CHF, such price action would confirm majors switching to USD long, and CHF short.

2. Trend is very strongly down - don't fade the major daily trend...right?
Usually yes, but trendline has been broken, and this almost looks like a bounce off retrace to broken downward trendline. combined with COT data and daily and 1 hour Price action, very possible that downtrend has been broken, and may be broken hard.

3. COT can stay at extreme overbought or oversold levels for quite a while before turns occur...
Likely? this one I honestly don't know...so if there is any BIG possible reason for this trade to fail, this would be what I see... but would WELCOME other relevent reasons for it NOT to work out.

Trade specifics:

Entering 1/4 position on upward break of 1.0525 level (very aggressive), SL 1.0495

Entering another 1/4 position on upward break of 1.0550 level (semi aggressive), S/L at 1.0495

Entering another 1/4 position on break of 1.0550 level, and subsequent retrace to 1.0550 level (semi conservative) S/L at 1.0495

Entering final 1/4 position on break of 1.0550 level, and subsequent retrace to 1.0525 level (conservative) S/L at 1.0495

BONUS: enter another 25% if retraces to 1.0502 , S/L at 1.490 (nice R/R ratio)

total possible position 5 lots

Possible Targets: 1.0575 (not likely, bad R/R ratio), 1.0600, 1.0675, 1.0800, 1.0850-1.0875


QUESTIONS FOR ALL WHO READ THIS: Where do you DISAGREE? Not so interested in where you agree, but if you feel so inclined, please mention this as well. ESPECIALLY if you have OTHER reasons for agreeing that I have not mentioned (market corrolation, Option orders, Moon cycles...whatever, etc)
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  • #4,046
  • Jul 18, 2010 2:47pm Jul 18, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting spinfoil
shahab8b, excellent thread! got a question about a possible setup for ya...

I'll post the breakdown of my analysis, and I'd appreciate any critique anyone cares to give...

Pair: USD/CHF
Direction: Long
Rational:

COT Report on signaling CHF overbought -
14 RSI pulling off from high of the last 12 months, but price recently pushed
higher = bearish divergence

14 RSI also well into overbought territory, and pulling back down.

Large Traders are at extreme level (100), as are speculative (retail) traders = MOST is...
Couple scenarios based on HF charts. My PF charting is down temporarily
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  • #4,047
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:19pm Jul 18, 2010 3:19pm
Quote
Couple scenarios based on HF charts. My PF charting is down temporarily

My analysis tanks 100% like yours but i just wanted to add a little analysis just to dot the i and cross the t.

No doubt from TA perspective that USDCHF is gonna dip but has reached a point of retracement after forming a bearish impulsive wave on daily time frame. according to TA, we might see a bull pack till 1.0900 to form a bearish HS inside the triangle and boom down it goes

Hourly, i will be waiting for confirmation for bullish rally as indicated in the chart.
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  • #4,048
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:40pm Jul 18, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting Saxon
Couple scenarios based on HF charts. My PF charting is down temporarily

Saxon... I like your longer term analysis, triangle formation really is looking solid on the high TF... but my question is this...

what would you have to see form to push you one way or the other? What (if any) changes would you need to see in the COT? or... (more likely I'm assuming) what would you need to see price do in order for you to take a position long, or short?
  • #4,049
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:44pm Jul 18, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience ,

Nice to see you here, thanks for the post.
I've been thinking I miss posting whatever crosses my mind. The thread is located in commercial while it has nothing to do with our service.Well that's due to my status now.And I just noticed a person rated my thread "terrible" at the fist day it has been moved here, that was a quick judgment!! I think there is a competition going on here, as the threads ordered in ranking(starts) in commercial from top to bottom.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=22
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,050
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:50pm Jul 18, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Naijafx
My analysis tanks 100% like yours but i just wanted to add a little analysis just to dot the i and cross the t.

No doubt from TA perspective that USDCHF is gonna dip but has reached a point of retracement after forming a bearish impulsive wave on daily time frame. according to TA, we might see a bull pack till 1.0900 to form a bearish HS inside the triangle and boom down it goes

Hourly, i will be waiting for confirmation for bullish rally as indicated in the chart.

Naijafx, your hourly is pretty much in line with mine, I'm just looking to take more aggressive entries. However, since I agree a pullback is likely, I think I will hold off on entries until it breaks above 1.0550, and then retraces to 1.050. After the retracement, I'll be watching 5 min charts (possibly 1 min) to fine tune entry and get in LONG as soon as price shows it will be pushing back up off the 1.050 level

Although I never want to miss a trade, I'd rather have higher percentage success with a better R/R ratio... and waiting for that pullback (if it occurs) is the better decision.
  • #4,051
  • Jul 18, 2010 6:54pm Jul 18, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/U: COT

Greetings Shahab,

I have began following your teachings, and would like to further understand your thought process. For example, on this particular E/U, what made you think it will go short? Thank you.
  • #4,052
  • Jul 18, 2010 9:58pm Jul 18, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Shahab! Good to see you back to posting COT charts. On A/U, I'm glad to see that we both agree... we both have different methods to obtain our postures but they both do the job!!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_28_125.gif Here's to many pips next week!

Hi Marc,

Thank you, I saw your analysis on A/U on Saxon's thread, very nice, well done
  • #4,053
  • Jul 18, 2010 9:59pm Jul 18, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting Vantage
Rated 5 stars of course for one of the best threads around.

Thank you for your appreciation.
  • #4,054
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:08pm Jul 18, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting spinfoil
shahab8b, excellent thread! got a question about a possible setup for ya...

I'll post the breakdown of my analysis, and I'd appreciate any critique anyone cares to give...

Pair: USD/CHF
Direction: Long
Rational:

COT Report on signaling CHF overbought -
14 RSI pulling off from high of the last 12 months, but price recently pushed
higher = bearish divergence

14 RSI also well into overbought territory, and pulling back down.

Large Traders are at extreme level (100), as are speculative (retail) traders = MOST is priced in long......
Hi there,
Thank you for your kind words.
Nice analysis on U/Chf, here is my view:
I'll be careful with long as far as R at 1.0542 holds, but if you have to a long at 1.0450 with a Sl below 1.040 might be an option.
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  • #4,055
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:18pm Jul 18, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting Patience
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=22

haha, I've just noticed that someone rated terrible again, after "nine" 5 star rating. Well what to say, I'll be more than happy if these guys post their opinion in my thread so we see what is their interpretation of trading. I wonder how an approach based on Sentiment and TA with use of TL, S/R, Fib, EW, Pivot, Classic and Hamonic patterns can be treated like that.To be honest with you what's happening here is so discouraging.
  • #4,056
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:31pm Jul 18, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
To be honest with you what's happening here is so discouraging.
It's probably just another newb who's not sure which has cost him more, the EA's he bought or the money they lost.....

I gave you 5.

Brilliant work you do here.
  • #4,057
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:32pm Jul 18, 2010 10:32pm
Please don't be discouraged with someone's negative comment or feedback. I do have a question though. Obviously you are in the Commercial section, so my question is...are you selling a service/signal/other? My goal in this thread of yours is maybe perhaps to learn something in addition to all other posts. Noone is perfect in trading, but it is obvious you have a gift for this thus I'm hoping to learn from the obvious good ones and sense of the market. Thanks.
  • #4,058
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:38pm Jul 18, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Low
It's probably just another newb who's not sure which has cost him more, the EA's he bought or the money they lost.....

I gave you 5.

Brilliant work you do here.

Hi Low,

Thanks for your appreciation. They are not newbies, as you need to have at least 4 vouchers to be able to rate. But that's OK, I'm sure I'll hear from them soon.
BTW, you are making great calls, I've seen your charts in Saxon's and Coke's thread. Well done
  • #4,059
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:45pm Jul 18, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting pinoyboy
Please don't be discouraged with someone's negative comment or feedback. I do have a question though. Obviously you are in the Commercial section, so my question is...are you selling a service/signal/other? My goal in this thread of yours is maybe perhaps to learn something in addition to all other posts. Noone is perfect in trading, but it is obvious you have a gift for this thus I'm hoping to learn from the obvious good ones and sense of the market. Thanks.

Yes , GeppyG and I have a paid service. But this thread has nothing to do with it, I've been posting here before all that happened and still sharing my views here.They may or may not be on our service.I agree with you about trading, it's something which can never be perfect. It's all bout probability and MM, as I explained about my approach elsewhere #4298
  • #4,060
  • Jul 18, 2010 10:57pm Jul 18, 2010 10:57pm
A/J,
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