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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,761
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:54am Jul 16, 2010 12:54am
Hi
Looks good , but where do you have your loosing legs??

Are they still in work?
  • #2,762
  • Jul 16, 2010 5:01am Jul 16, 2010 5:01am
When I posted it yesterday, I didn't have any loss. But after posting, I entered in some positions as the system told me and since this moment, I am losing but I keep the positions.

Wait & see
Be this day Pipfully ! -> Love this smile !
  • #2,763
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:46am Jul 17, 2010 10:46am
Hi
So you take the profit in the vinning position, and then wait until the losing position gived profit??

I go in with two positions and then goes out with the two positions at the same time when i have profit more then what i have in the loosing leg.

Is it not dangerous to take the profit and then wait for the loosing position to give profit?
  • #2,764
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:51pm Aug 23, 2010 8:51pm
dear skyline

i just attched your indi V2 on EURCHF 1h but i see -12.96. i guess im having same problem globalinves had. i put VL as you said but samething happen. any idea?

broker Alapri US



thanks for your hard work

ps where can i find divergence 5.1
  • #2,765
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:39am Sep 27, 2010 7:39am
Hi Spieler,

Even though probably you'll not read that msg as you haven't been here recently i'd like to say one big THANK YOU!

I've been around in the FF, only as a silent reader and evaluating lots of strategies etc., but your way of thinking and the simplicity of the presented strategy is just astonishing!

For the past week and so i spend reading in details the entire thread and at the moment i feel as if i've been attending a lecture class . The foundations are layed down and now i'm getting into trading your strategy /testing, evaluating etc./. I know that this thread is dead now, but i'll highly appreciate if i can get assistance from you if questions arise in the meantime.

Also i'll highly apprciate if you share your experience with similar strategy. Understanding your precious time, i'll be happy if you can only direct me into the subjects (i believe that the road to success is also covered with lots of reading, self-evaluation and deep research - but you can help me in the direction of my research/.

This is for now.

Thank you once againg and SAFE TRADING!

EKS
  • #2,766
  • Oct 13, 2010 2:52am Oct 13, 2010 2:52am
Greetings to all!
Say, this strategy still work?
  • #2,767
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:02am Oct 14, 2010 1:02am
Shortly - yes!
You should demo it, to see it for yourself. My observations are that you can make profit on the decorrelation/correlation of the pairs, but you should follow strictly the rules of the system and not overlevarage yourself in the begining as it may be needed to add several positions. I start gradually to feel the market and from time to time i enter only 1 leg and exit with a nice profit. I don't know how volatile the market has been when this thread was alive, but now it seem that the market is very volatile and you may end up having 4-5 positions and one trade may take 5-6 days to complete entirely.

But as i said, the best proof is your test.

EKS
  • #2,768
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:48am Oct 14, 2010 3:48am
EKS, of all the changes/modifications in this thread, what exact method are you following? Also, what websites do you use to get your "divergence"? Thank you.

Quoting Eks
Shortly - yes!
You should demo it, to see it for yourself....
  • #2,769
  • Oct 14, 2010 6:27am Oct 14, 2010 6:27am
Quoting Eks
Shortly - yes!
You should demo it, to see it for yourself....
Thank you for your help.
I explore this strategy for a week.
The system is very profitable.
  • #2,770
  • Oct 14, 2010 8:30am Oct 14, 2010 8:30am
Quoting DavidsJobs
Thank you for your help.
I explore this strategy for a week.
The system is very profitable.
All due respect, etc, but the profitability of a system cannot be declared after 1 week. Profitability can only be determined after months or years and only after you've traded through bad times.

I could flip a coin for my entries and declare after 1 week that I have a profitable if I have more money than when I started.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #2,771
  • Oct 14, 2010 4:14pm Oct 14, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting DavidsJobs
I explore this strategy for a week.
The system is very profitable.
This system is not actually hedging. When you short EURJPY and long CADJPY - you actually trade on EURCAP, paying double spread. I`ve been testing this strategy for two months and thought that it`s really great, but at some moment you will enter in a couple of positions that will bring you loss, wich negate all your profits.
Currently I`m trying to find correlated pairs, which will have flat spread(rate), i.e. without certain trend.
  • #2,772
  • Oct 15, 2010 1:24am Oct 15, 2010 1:24am
Hi All,

@ Dreamliner: i'm following the pdf made by boeingdriver, which summarized what spieler introduced. Also i use the indicator which was uploded by skyline @ post #2753. Currently i have difficulties in defining when to move the VL line and set new begining. Initially i tried not to move the VL and start a new period until my entire trade is closed. What happen though is that i holded positions for several days until i manage to close the trade, but if i am above 1% divergence, i couldn't benefit from working the position. I plan now to review againg the thread and try to start setting new VL everyday and work to position from there. In respect to the correlations - check www.mataf.net

@ DavidsJobs: no problem for the help, but i have to agree with stevegee58. 1 week of testing is nothing. You should continue demoing it and see how it behaves in extreme conditions. I'm testing it for almost a month now and i may say that i'm still right at the begining.

@ stevegee58: good point. absolutly agree

@vitaly_vv: in short you are right, but not exactly. This dispute has been going on in this thread for a long time. When you decide to give it a try and follow exactly the rules (no martingale strategies of whatsoever) then you can see the results. Don't know about the eur/jpy&cad/jpy. i've been following only what spieler has said. And yes, this is not hedging, this is decorrelation/correlation trading for me.
  • #2,773
  • Oct 15, 2010 2:57am Oct 15, 2010 2:57am
Quoting Eks
Hi All,
in short you are right, but not exactly. This dispute has been going on in this thread for a long time. When you decide to give it a try and follow exactly the rules (no martingale strategies of whatsoever) then you can see the results. Don't know about the eur/jpy&cad/jpy. i've been following only what spieler has said. And yes, this is not hedging, this is decorrelation/correlation trading for me.
I have an EA, which trades accordingly to this system - actually not this one, by spieler, but correlation in general - when correlation is above 0.8 it buys and sells. I used AUDJPY and NZDJPY. This EA buys and sells only certain pair - in my case settings were - long AUDJPY, short NZDJPY. Generally, AUDJPU is higher that NZDJPY. So, when we buy aud and sell nzd we bet on increasing the distance between the prices of these pairs.

I`ve wrote a simple indi, which shows the rate(spread: price(audjpy) -or/ price(nzdjpy)) let`s take a look on it:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DELTA.jpg Size: 96 KB


Compare it with AUDNZD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.jpg Size: 150 KB


They are the same

So my EA worked great for almost 1 month - september. I launched it on 1st of september - it`s firts trade was negative until 7th. And the last trade was on 30th of September, when trend changed.

I do not want to say that this system is bad, but it is not so simple as it looks. Ad correlations are not the main parameter here.

I`m working now with AUDJPY - GBPAUD. They are negatively-correlated. It`s great - when you guess the trend - you will have two profitable positions, not one. And the second good thing about these pairs - their spread is in flat for a couple of months already, so you have less chances to close position in minus, when you do not get in trend.
  • #2,774
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:03am Oct 15, 2010 8:03am
This indicator is not showing on my IBFX mini EUR/CHF chart. I've changed background colors, timeframes, stopped and restarted it, etc. and nothing shows on the chart. Any suggestions?

Quoting skyline
Hi GlobalInvest,
no I'm not trading this sytem anymore at least in this period, because there's very very few opportunity to open pairs since eurchf is almost ranging and hardly reach +-0.20/0.25 % level. Maybe when there will be more action I'll look at this system again. I would also be interesting to hear some news from Spieler but I guess he's not trading this system anymore too at least applied to eurusd/usdchf.
Btw in attachment you'll find my latest indicator, remember to put a vertical line and name 'VL' that will act as starting point...
  • #2,775
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:19am Oct 15, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Dreamliner
This indicator is not showing on my IBFX mini EUR/CHF chart. I've changed background colors, timeframes, stopped and restarted it, etc. and nothing shows on the chart. Any suggestions?
Hi Dreamliner,
did you place the vertical line renaming it as 'VL' ? Also check if 'Suffix' input variable is set to 'm' since IBFX for some strange reason has symbols called for example EURCHFm. Also note this indicator is intended to be used on EURCHF chart only.
I get a live IBFX account and it works fine.

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,776
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:28am Oct 15, 2010 9:28am
There is no "Suffix input variable" that I can see. I've attached a pic of my current settings, can you tell me what needs to be changed?

Yes, it is on a EUR/CHF daily chart.

Quoting skyline
Hi Dreamliner,
did you place the vertical line renamed 'VL' ? Also check if 'Suffix' input variable is set to 'm' since IBFX for some strange reason has symbols called for example EURCHFm. Also note this indicator is intended to be used on EURCHF chart only.
I get a live IBFX account and it works fine.

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Indicator.docx.doc   195 KB | 618 downloads
  • #2,777
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:04am Oct 15, 2010 10:04am
Quoting Dreamliner
There is no "Suffix input variable" that I can see. I've attached a pic of my current settings, can you tell me what needs to be changed?

Yes, it is on a EUR/CHF daily chart.
Oh ok that's clear now, I didn't upload my latest version v3 which comes with Suffix variable, please try this one it should works fine.

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Spieler Divergence v3.ex4   9 KB | 692 downloads
  • #2,778
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:06am Oct 15, 2010 10:06am
That did it, thank you!

Quoting skyline
Oh ok that's clear now, I didn't upload my latest version v3 which comes with Suffix variable, please try this one it should works fine.

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,779
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:15am Oct 15, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Dreamliner
That did it, thank you!
  • #2,780
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:27pm Oct 15, 2010 12:27pm
By the way Skyline, I noticed if you change from daily to 4 hour or 1 hour that the divergence chances. What time frame are we supposed to use?

Quoting skyline
Oh ok that's clear now, I didn't upload my latest version v3 which comes with Suffix variable, please try this one it should works fine.

Cheers,
Skyline
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