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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #13,041
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:09am Jul 17, 2010 8:09am
After last week's roller coaster ride Strat can't say now that I was deaf and dumb and blind.

I am also watching EURJPY & EURAUD and your comments will be welcomed.

Thanks
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  • #13,042
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:22am Jul 17, 2010 10:22am
Quoting simpleman
After last week's roller coaster ride Strat can't say now that I was deaf and dumb and blind.

I am also watching EURJPY & EURAUD and your comments will be welcomed.

Thanks
The Pinball Wizard was a deaf, dumb and blind kid - nothing wrong with that!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,043
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:36am Jul 17, 2010 10:36am
Hi All,

Here is another PASR trade. First position closed and two positions are at breakeven. This trade is the same as Audchf so I had reduced my risk before I put it on. Strat multi accounts idea is working really well. By having ranging account, counter trend account, and trending account, it makes you be more aware of the trade when you see PASR. It is also good for measuring yourself what you are good at by seeing the balance of three accounts, well let say ten years
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  • #13,044
  • Jul 17, 2010 12:26pm Jul 17, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Strat: "Good lad! This is what I like to see.''

Surprising to see this comment in relation to a counter trend trade, even a very profitable one, after all your other posts on the subject.

Perhaps a qualified comment for novices would be in order.

See the attachment.
Roger!

When I posted the GBP USD trade, I was elated at the fact that I "SEEN" this without "LOOKING" for it.

When I have these moments of "UNDERSTANDING" I like to share them with this community.

I am ever so grateful, that I have been given the opportunity to tap into the knowledge of so many experienced traders.
If I can help another trader with some of this knowledge, it makes me feel good to be able to "GIVE BACK".

Feeling good about yourself is a BASIC FOUNDATION for success, no matter what you choose to do in life.

Being referred to as "THE NOVICE" and "THE POSTER" clearly tells me that I offended you, which were not my intentions.

I am here to learn and to share, and "TOTALLY SERIOUS" about this profession. There is also no doubt in my mind that STRAT will promptly put me in my place if I am off in "THE LAND OF NOD" when I post my thoughts or my trades.

Tom
  • #13,045
  • Jul 17, 2010 2:24pm Jul 17, 2010 2:24pm
Here are couple of USD pair. When USD pairs show me opportunity then I try to avoid non-usd pairs unless I am rich like Strat and have $3m beach front property in Arizona.
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  • #13,046
  • Jul 17, 2010 4:01pm Jul 17, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting GibsonL6
Roger!

When I posted the GBP USD trade, I was elated at the fact that I "SEEN" this without "LOOKING" for it.

When I have these moments of "UNDERSTANDING" I like to share them with this community.

I am ever so grateful, that I have been given the opportunity to tap into the knowledge of so many experienced traders.
If I can help another trader with some of this knowledge, it makes me feel good to be able to "GIVE BACK".

Feeling good about yourself is a BASIC FOUNDATION for success, no matter what you choose to do in life.

Being...
Hi Tom,

First let me assure you that nothing in your post offended me in the slightest.

I saw the same GBPUSD setup myself, but because I am determined to understand, and apply Strat's methods I did not take the trade because it looked counter trend to me too.

Recently, I have not taken several similar setups for the same reason.

The matter of trends is proving to me to be even more subjective than SR levels.

Regards, Roger
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,047
  • Jul 17, 2010 5:04pm Jul 17, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting strat
[color=Blue][i][b]Thank you for your kind and constructive comments. I was anticipating...
My understanding of trends is clearer now. Thanks
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #13,048
  • Jul 17, 2010 5:20pm Jul 17, 2010 5:20pm
I have been on vacation the same month as Strat and am now working on a Summer Camp program which has meant an extended hiatus from PCs and trading. I trust everyone is working hard and look forward to getting back to study. Best Regards, forexample
  • #13,049
  • Jul 17, 2010 7:41pm Jul 17, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting simpleman
Here are couple of USD pair. When USD pairs show me opportunity then I try to avoid non-usd pairs unless I am rich like Strat and have $3m beach front property in Arizona.
Whoa! AUD and NZD are both commodity currencies and basically move together against the $US. Pick your weapon and ONLY trade one of these otherwise you are doubling your RISK on the same trade.

If its diversification you are looking for then trade a non $US pair.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,050
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:09pm Jul 17, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Hi Tom,

First let me assure you that nothing in your post offended me in the slightest.

I saw the same GBPUSD setup myself, but because I am determined to understand, and apply Strat's methods I did not take the trade because it looked counter trend to me too.

Recently, I have not taken several similar setups for the same reason.

The matter of trends is proving to me to be even more subjective than SR levels.

Regards, Roger
Roger, to better help you understand trends and how they work across timeframes, choose one pair, lets say GBPUSD and put both Worker and Boss on your screen. Put the Boss on the left and the Worker on the right - see my example.

Now choose a swing from the Boss (can be any swing) and draw vertical lines from H to L. Then find the same dates on the Worker and draw the same vertical lines. You now have the Worker trend relative to its Boss trend. Making money between the two lines is very easy using PASR.

You can also add a safety net using Boss H and L PRICE to keep you out of counter trend trades or for initiating safe, low risk trades in the direction of this trend.

Take your time and do this exercise over and over and over and over and over and over and over on different swings and pairs ad infinitum UNTIL you can see it without having to do this.

Hope this helps.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,051
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:33am Jul 18, 2010 4:33am
If EURUSD will continue its recent upward move, we need to see a weekly close above 1.30 for a possible 1.37 test, IMO. If not, a close below 1.29 would be encouraging for bears. As always, watch out for PA.
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  • #13,052
  • Jul 18, 2010 5:00am Jul 18, 2010 5:00am
Quoting simpleman

I am also watching EURJPY & EURAUD and your comments will be welcomed.

Thanks
A nice, clean downtrend since 2009 and are we near the end of it? Why not? Check out recent volatility. It is common to see this much of volatility during trend changes. The boss bar with blue arrow has 1514 pips range and still controlling the price since then. If price manages to move higher of that bar, we can say the trend has turned up. The trendline on worker chart is being tested for the third time since May.
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  • #13,053
  • Jul 18, 2010 5:31am Jul 18, 2010 5:31am
Quoting simpleman

I am also watching EURJPY & EURAUD and your comments will be welcomed.

Thanks
We have a major SR on that congestion area you showed on your chart.
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  • #13,054
  • Jul 18, 2010 6:02am Jul 18, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Blackeagle
We have a major SR on that congestion area you showed on your chart.
Thanks Backeagle,
Good to see your post. I have tweaked my SR and now will wait for close above 114 and hopefully it will.
  • #13,055
  • Jul 18, 2010 6:40am Jul 18, 2010 6:40am
Quoting Blackeagle
It is common to see this much of volatility during trend changes. The boss bar with blue arrow has 1514 pips range and still controlling the price since then.
I think EURNZD look better, just 150 pips away from making HH and no controlling candle issue.
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  • #13,056
  • Jul 18, 2010 8:36am Jul 18, 2010 8:36am
Firstly, thank you Strat for your answer to my previous post.
Stress and risk management are exactly the areas where I still have a lot to learn (I'm now getting able not to overtrade, but I'm still encline to take too much risk...)

I want to share with you what I see on the GBPJPY; Thank you for your comments on what is right or wrong in this analyse.

Boss: trend is down. I quoted LL and LHs made by the pair since 1 year, and drew the resistance.
A LH is possibly forming now. Wait and see. As a support is present at 130, we have to wait for price action at that level. A confirmed break of this level at a close could trigger a sell.

Worker: prices stalled between 136 and 131.50. MAs are gathered in the same area (congestion area). Double S at 132. S at 130. A break of these S could trigger a sell. Target: firstly 127, than 122.

Moreover (I know it is not the purpose of the thread to post on fundamentals, but I think it s worth to signal this), I already noticed that when the markets are down, this is usually a good thing for JPY, which takes profit of that against other currencies, and charts of major indexes are all showing that markets came to a small resistance and are nom pointing down again.

Thank you.

P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,057
  • Jul 18, 2010 2:08pm Jul 18, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Pitch30
Firstly, thank you Strat for your answer to my previous post.
Stress and risk management are exactly the areas where I still have a lot to learn (I'm now getting able not to overtrade, but I'm still encline to take too much risk...)

I want to share with you what I see on the GBPJPY; Thank you for your comments on what is right or wrong in this analyse.

Boss: trend is down. I quoted LL and LHs made by the pair since 1 year, and drew the resistance.
A LH is possibly forming now. Wait and see. As a support is present at 130, we have to wait...
Hi Pitch,

Your overall analysis seems sound and for the most part i agree but this pair is such a mess right now its not worth the risk. Although the overall boss trend is down the last 8 weeks have been ranging. We also have to remember what this pairs nickname is!! Of all the jpy pairs i would rather play one of the commodity pairs for a little more stability.

BTW

You will probably want to change your 21ema to a 20 red solid line and get rid of that 10ema to keep strat from giving you a good lashing!
  • #13,058
  • Jul 18, 2010 2:26pm Jul 18, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Hi Tom,

First let me assure you that nothing in your post offended me in the slightest.

I saw the same GBPUSD setup myself, but because I am determined to understand, and apply Strat's methods I did not take the trade because it looked counter trend to me too.

Recently, I have not taken several similar setups for the same reason.

The matter of trends is proving to me to be even more subjective than SR levels.

Regards, Roger
Hi Roger!

I'm guilty of reading too much between the lines.... I apologize.

On the bright side we both got a great lesson on trends from Strat.

Tom
  • #13,059
  • Jul 18, 2010 2:41pm Jul 18, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Hi Pitch,

Your overall analysis seems sound and for the most part i agree but this pair is such a mess right now its not worth the risk. Although the overall boss trend is down the last 8 weeks have been ranging. We also have to remember what this pairs nickname is!! Of all the jpy pairs i would rather play one of the commodity pairs for a little more stability.

BTW

You will probably want to change your 21ema to a 20 red solid line and get rid of that 10ema to keep strat from giving you a good lashing!
Hi Craig, thank you for your answer. I'll have a look at the commodity pairs (I haven't analysed them so far).
I'll also follow your piece of advice, getting rid of my 10EMA and changing the 21EMA to a more conventional 20EMA
  • #13,060
  • Edited 4:13pm Jul 18, 2010 3:59pm | Edited 4:13pm
An attempt at some analysis of CADJPY.....

Big Boss - still in up trend yet looking weaker

Boss - uptrend has broken down below the trend line. Has now also retested the uptrend line - the former support became resistance.

Daily - down trend is in place, a series of LH and LLs.

Price - now at a strong support level (roughly speaking 81.50) that has held for weeks. It shows on the weekly and the daily charts.

At the moment no trade to make but I will be watching to see what price does at this area.
A break down through the support may signal a trade, probably if price also breaks the 80.00 zone, or a return to the upper reaches of the trendline in the region of 84.00 may allow an entry for a short.

EDIT: forgot to mention the Long Bar of the week of 2nd May - looks like it might be a control bar and ties in with the support level, so a breach of the lows of this, just above the 81.50 will also be significant, I think.
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If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
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