Spot FX Day Trader's Thread

euraud approaching it's upper trendline resistance again, looking to get in short...

wow.. I'm only 20 pips down

down -89 for the week, but that's a hell of a lot better than where I was yesterday!

never mind dude, always next week

I'm planning on -119 next week.

There's always weekend rampage as an option!? I'm just supping Guinness and listening to Metallica, helps forget lost pips

Coors Light and The Smiths

Alternatively,

IF YOU LIKE TO GAMBLE I TELL YOU I'M YOUR MAN... YOU WIN SOME.. LOSE SOME .. IT'S ALL THE SAME TO ME!!!


classic..

http://i31.tinypic.com/9quxit.png

Found this article for a spot of light weekend reading...

Continental Europe is a bastion of privacy, especially compared with the US. The individual’s right to “dignity” is much more highly prized in Europe than the freedom of the public to pore over all the salacious details of some luminary’s recreational activities in the tabloids.

It was only after his death, for example, that that François Mitterrand, former French president, was revealed to have cohabited with his
mistress and love-child throughout much of his period in office.

A similar code of omertà appears to prevail when it comes to the credit crisis.

Whereas the US has more or less dished the dirt on its troubled financial institutions, the European authorities regard airing the shortcomings of the region’s banks as taboo.

But while hushing up celebrity frolics deprives only the paparazzi of earnings, concealing insolvency at, say, savings banks could have potentially disastrous consequences for customers and the wider financial system.

It is painfully obvious that the eurozone’s problems extend far beyond Greek over-indebtedness or the bursting of Spain’s property bubble. Even prudent Germany’s state banks are tainted by
dodgy lending.

And the region’s less dynamic nations are blighted by a profound lack of economic competitiveness that has been aggravated by the strength of the euro in recent years. A cheaper currency is absolutely vital for the weaker eurozone members – at least if the club is to survive in its current form.

With the euro at $1.44 on August 7 2009, I wrote that it might peak at $1.487 before reversing sharply downwards. In the event, it topped at $1.514, before plunging to within a couple of cents of my target at $1.16 by June 7 this year. It has subsequently rebounded to almost $1.28 and almost certainly has further to go still. An idealised correction would target either $1.31 or perhaps even $1.35.

Two of the euro’s dominant time cycles – of roughly nine and 14.5 months respectively – are currently in upwards mode. This suggests a stronger euro heading into October. However, this is within the context of an overall downtrend. So, rather than a barnstorming rally in the single currency, I expect further corrective activity. Around October, there is potential for another larger sell-off to begin, with potential for another big low in September 2011 (see chart).

Once it arrives, the next stage of the euro’s decline against the dollar should be even more powerful than its descent to date. It should carry the single European currency towards parity with the US dollar and beyond. A very strong target exists at 94.8c. Although this might sound dramatic today, the euro was worth even less than this rather less than a decade ago.

If I am correct, there should be an excellent opportunity to sell euros and buy dollars in the coming months. A reversal at $1.31 or $1.35 would obviously make for an excellent point of entry. Traders could also use the 200-day exponential moving average – currently at $1.33 – as a benchmark. Over time, this level has acted both as a ceiling and floor for this exchange rate.

Updates

●Canadian dollar

As a big provider of natural resources, Canada’s economy has boomed in recent times. Thanks to this, the Canadian dollar has enjoyed a great run, not least against the pound. I said on April 24 that traders could profit from the ongoing downtrend by selling sterling on rallies failing near the 21-week exponential moving average. A reversal near that level followed shortly thereafter, and the pound plunged almost 7 per cent to my target of below $1.50 in just a few days. In spite of a subsequent surge, the pound is likely to retest those lows before long.

●Japanese yen

While I have generally been bullish about the US dollar against most currencies, one exception has been the Japanese yen. In spite of already being overvalued in relation to the greenback, I said on May 29 that I expected the yen to strengthen further and that a rally ending at ¥93 would be a good moment to sell dollars and buy yen. The dollar reversed at ¥92.89 a week later and dropped sharply to ¥86.9. I continue to look for falls in this exchange rate, ultimately to new
all-time lows.

The outlook for Japan’s stock market is altogether less promising, however. I wrote on June 5 that if the Nikkei 225 failed to rise back above its 55-week exponential moving average, it would be a clue that its 21-year bear market had resumed. The index halted at exactly that level a few days later. As with western markets, I thus believe the trend is now downwards once more.

I'm still short Cable .. down 20 pips

patience pays.. I just banked 40 after being insanely underwater for many days


ahhhhhhh... that's better.

long GJ 131.8

Dull day, will have a look at the Asian session for inspiration later

I'm up 40 on my GJ trade and I'm encouraged by the stock market close to hold it..

Trying a Cable long here at 1.522 s/l 1.519

GO POUND!

love it.. up 65 collectively