Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Eerily good.

I would happily settle for 10% of your forecasting ability, Shahab. Where did you learn all this? Any particular books you would recommend?

DHB: Love that gem of a quote at the bottom of your message box - priceless.

Thanks Saxon

Thanks Dhb,
Books are good, you need to read them then look for the exception, which happens more than anyone thinks. Like triangle failure, wedge failure and lots of other examples.I've read a few good books, if you like pm me your email, I'll send them.

and this one is for the weekend, wish everyone a relaxing weekend among friends and family.

It's not just the books. I mean SR patterns, etc. can all be traded but it's being able to hold onto a trade until the next support/resistance area or the wave pattern.
Any thoughts on that or is that what you do, hold on until the trade reaches the next logical support? You often hear of people taking half off and leaving half to run (I'm not a fan of that unless the RR is thought out properly) and also moving the SL to break even...again, be stop losses often get taken out on the retest of the SR area.
For scalp trades, I tend to go for a predetermined amount around about 20 pips. Swing trades a little different...

Hi All,
Good to see the familiar posters still posting here, always been a great thread Shahab

Be lucky, Cheers.

E/U: COT

Aha, the boys are back in town

SSI: GBPJPY Shorts Drop 36%, GBPUSD 24% after Sharp Sterling Tumble
Friday, 16 Jul 2010 19:41 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.80 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.10 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 27.5% higher than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 35.8% lower than yesterday and 29.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.6% weaker than yesterday and 9.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.64 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 1.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.8% lower than yesterday and 10.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 4.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.47 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.13 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.5% higher than yesterday and 11.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.8% lower than yesterday and 12.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.8% weaker than yesterday and 2.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 6.01 as nearly 86% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.97 as 83% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 25.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 39.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 7.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.83 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.94 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 23.9% lower than yesterday and 6.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 4.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 17.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.6% lower than yesterday and 22.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 5.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% weaker than yesterday and 17.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.44 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.1% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 24.4% lower than yesterday and 39.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.8% weaker than yesterday and 19.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.57 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 45.9% higher than yesterday and 41.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 34.9% lower than yesterday and 30.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.3% weaker than yesterday and 11.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Hi Patience ,

Nice to see you here, thanks for the post.
I've been thinking I miss posting whatever crosses my mind. The thread is located in commercial while it has nothing to do with our service.Well that's due to my status now.And I just noticed a person rated my thread "terrible" at the fist day it has been moved here, that was a quick judgment!! I think there is a competition going on here, as the threads ordered in ranking(starts) in commercial from top to bottom.

UJ:COT, as expected

1&2 charts :last week analysis

Hey Shahab - you know what I said to you in that email about some people - they are everywhere I've just voted you 5 stars of course. Looks like you've moved up the list Don't let them get you down.

U/Cad: COT:

This picture in Assuie and Loonie and Kiwi are s clear, SELL Them all against USD and Yen

1st chart: last week anaylsis

Thanks, I've just seen that .

BTW, you are always right about everything. I need to send you a long email!!

S&P 500 futures,

as expected

1st charts: last week analysis

As I mentioned before: Equities are in early stage of a sharp fall ,there is a H & Sh pattern everywhere in weekly chart. All the last two weeks rally were correction. This will drag down commodity currencies (AUD/CAD/NZD) against USD and Yen. But it's not that clear for European currencies.

That sounds ominous Just checked my email for Lloyds weekly report but there isn't one to be seen. Hmmmmm. Must have staff shortages again.

I would say the BoJ/MoF are starting to shake in their boots about now. The new bloke better check that pager is working and not plan on sleeping for a while

I've been running a demo on FXCM/Tradency (where other people trade for you) to see how it works for the last few weeks. Haven't been pulled into too many trades but I've had to do damage control a couple of times as I haven't liked the entries. Not sure I would stick any real money with them.

That sounds like a good experience, let me know the result.You may want to check out zipsignals too. We've been thinking to run one there but it will make things more complicated than what it is now, may be in near future.

Gold

1st chart: last week analysis

Thanks shahab8b for one of the best analyses & thread . I do check it at time & subscribeb but today only I notice it in a commercial forum . Ok , carry on your good job & yes rated top it .
fontu

It is a big fat H&S on S&P and Dow, but that big fat daily candle that shooted up above the line, and closed high, reminds me the Quasimodo pattern. We'll see in a couple of days, if the taken out support line will become support once again.
Anyways, good analyses as always. Good to see your stuff up and running on FPA too. One of the few reliable review sites IMO. If you're on it, you can't be a bad guy, that's my opinion.