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  • #2,801
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:03am Jul 16, 2010 7:03am
well, sold at 91 SL 91 no risk lets see.....
  • #2,802
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:05am Jul 16, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Paj
well, sold at 91 SL 91 no risk lets see.....

Hi Folks,

Don't overlook announcement @ 13.30
  • #2,803
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:07am Jul 16, 2010 7:07am
Quoting BabeFX
Hi DanUK,

This is where it is probably best to let the market show you the way.
Ever mindful of the likely strong possibility of an option barrier being protected,together with a strong psycological level.

I might be mistaken, but I think 1.3000 is a level that the Eurozone believes to represent fair value.

Regards,


BabeFX.
Thanks BabeFX. I agree about the 1.3000 level... I figure I'll leave my TP at 1.3039 (as per the system rules) and watch how price reacts off 1.3.

Cheers,

Dan
  • #2,804
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:12am Jul 16, 2010 7:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
What do people do if still in a trade at NY open and NY gives the initial direction in the opposite direction - take profit and reverse?
This is an interesting question and I wondered about this too. I am still in the LO (long) trade - If I hadn't been I would have sold at 1.2994 (NY) and that would have been a breakeven trade - no loss!

As I am new to this I think it would be easier to stick with the open trade and perhaps tighten the stop loss to bank some money if the NY trade goes against you. But it isn't something I've tested so I will be monitoring this in future trades.

Regards,

Dan
  • #2,805
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:21am Jul 16, 2010 7:21am
Quoting lovejoy80
What do people do if still in a trade at NY open and NY gives the initial direction in the opposite direction - take profit and reverse?

Also Tony or anyone else do you know what the expected win % is over the long term of getting 140pip profit e.g.5%, 10%? It's virtually impossible to do any visual back testing due to lack of 5 second data on Oanda.

Maybe someone could create a simple EA (purely for back testing purposes) to enable people to look at different TP options that suit their desire for a certain win% and that can also help for risk...

Hi lovejoy80,

On a personal note, I wouldn't be too worked up about achieving 140pips. Rather, take what the market gives.

Backtesting. Don't ignore the fact that Tony has worked hard on this for a number of years. He didn't backtest, he traded this the hard way ! he didn't seek advice he just traded it.


Regards,


BabeFX.
  • #2,806
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:56am Jul 16, 2010 7:56am
Well I called it quits! +90 pips! 90% profit in one day! 1.3 just didn't look like it was going to give!

Thank you Tony!
  • #2,807
  • Jul 16, 2010 8:10am Jul 16, 2010 8:10am
Quoting DanUK
Well I called it quits! +90 pips! 90% profit in one day! 1.3 just didn't look like it was going to give!

Thank you Tony!
Hey Dan

Your risk on the trade was 1% per pip?
  • #2,808
  • Jul 16, 2010 8:16am Jul 16, 2010 8:16am
Quoting FOURX
Hey Dan

Your risk on the trade was 1% per pip?
Yes that's right. 2% risk is what I normally use however this was my first trade using this method and I think that is actually too high. I am going to drop it down to 1% risk in the future so I will be trading 0.5% per pip.

I do not yet know the long term hit rate of this method so I am only trading it on a small sized account - if I blow it all I won't be toooooo upset!
  • #2,809
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:16am Jul 16, 2010 9:16am
Finally +60 pips from London Open, thanks to a Trailing Stop 40 pips, I think 140 pips is a very big movement, 40 pips TS gives me at least some money......
Donīt trade NY open because was against London Open.....

Letīs see next Monday

Good Weekend
  • #2,810
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:52am Jul 16, 2010 9:52am
I did not trade New York as all my assets are used by the London trade
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #2,811
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:31am Jul 16, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Tony112
I did not trade New York as all my assets are used by the London trade

well im not that experienced with this system but from what I can gather and looking at the chart you would of gone short and lost just a couple pips so even if you did...happy days overall

P
  • #2,812
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:32am Jul 16, 2010 10:32am
Just a little picture for my idea of profit taking . Would you have entered at London open somewhere and set the TP at the third level = perfect trade.

http://i32.tinypic.com/25a0qkk.jpg
  • #2,813
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:37am Jul 16, 2010 10:37am
Quoting alfanzereii
Just a little picture for my idea of profit taking . Would you have entered at London open somewhere and set the TP at the third level = perfect trade.

http://i32.tinypic.com/25a0qkk.jpg
question..3rd level looks good in hindsight as we know it only went so high..what prevented you taking profits at the 2nd level ..after all at that moment in time you didnt know it was going to hit the 3rd ?

Cheers

Paulus
  • #2,814
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:59am Jul 16, 2010 10:59am
Quote
question..3rd level looks good in hindsight as we know it only went so high..what prevented you taking profits at the 2nd level ..after all at that moment in time you didnt know it was going to hit the 3rd ?

Cheers

Paulus
Well the sole reason for me personaly to set the TP to the third level and let in run would be my calulations, that with the given probability to reach the target and the profit I would gain , it is the best choice always to set my TP there. So if you hit the 2nd level more often than the third it is not better than hitting the third less often than the 2nd level, according to my simple calculations. (I hope you cann follow me )

I think it's really a personal thing. I think there are people out there that would like to set the TP otherwise, at S/R or something. But I like this method because I checked E/U over a period of a year to check which levels get hit how often. And because of this I can set it there and know that this will be the best choice for me. When you trade like this you could of course cover some profit with a higher SL at +20 or something. This method also stops me to mess with my trades because of fear and greed.

I don't know if my point comes across (I'm not native english so I can't express it on the point ) but it supports my mind greatly when I know it is MUCH likely that I'll get my TP. When I would chose my TP randomly there is no "history data" that would backup my mind.
  • #2,815
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:25pm Jul 16, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting alfanzereii
Just a little picture for my idea of profit taking . Would you have entered at London open somewhere and set the TP at the third level = perfect trade.

http://i32.tinypic.com/25a0qkk.jpg
Hi alfanzereii,

Can you share your indicators that plot the 3 levels?

Thanks,
-zz
  • #2,816
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:45pm Jul 16, 2010 12:45pm
Quote
Hi alfanzereii,

Can you share your indicators that plot the 3 levels?

Thanks,
-zz
It can plot more and less than 3 levels , just adjust the settings.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DOFibs v3.ex4   17 KB | 1,165 downloads
  • #2,817
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:51pm Jul 16, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting alfanzereii
It can plot more and less than 3 levels , just adjust the settings.
Thanks
  • #2,818
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:01pm Jul 16, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting alfanzereii
It can plot more and less than 3 levels , just adjust the settings.
Hi,

Thanks for your indicator but maybe I missed something, nothing appears in the chart......
  • #2,819
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:06pm Jul 16, 2010 1:06pm
Quote
Hi,

Thanks for your indicator but maybe I missed something, nothing appears in the chart......

Hmm make sure your settings for this indicator are correct but other than that I have no idea what could be wrong. It works perfect for me
  • #2,820
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:11pm Jul 16, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting alfanzereii
Hmm make sure your settings for this indicator are correct but other than that I have no idea what could be wrong. It works perfect for me
Oh, I think itīs because I use renko charts, with normal candlesticks it works......
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