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AUD/USD

  • #22,381
  • Jul 14, 2010 9:47am Jul 14, 2010 9:47am
Quoting jimobiwan
Hey buddy,

are you still holding on to the shorts from a few days ago? I see it hit the 61.8% again and again has failed.
No dumped those at BE, I'm trying to find the absolute top as soon as I get in the money 20 or so pips I go to BE. I have 2 more shorts running right now. I am really thinking we could get close being that it failed at the 61.8 and that being a double top as well. In time we shall see I guess.
  • #22,382
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:16am Jul 14, 2010 10:16am
closed at 08850 (60 pips, +3R)
trading day finished for today with +4.6R on Aussie
Attached Image
  • #22,383
  • Jul 14, 2010 1:02pm Jul 14, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting islandtrader
closed at 08850 (60 pips, +3R)
trading day finished for today with +4.6R on Aussie
Hey Island trader,

What SL do you use ? 4.6R is very impressive!

Also are u a strict PA trader based on supply / demand levels?
  • #22,384
  • Jul 14, 2010 3:23pm Jul 14, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting arjuncora
Hey Island trader,

What SL do you use ? 4.6R is very impressive!

Also are u a strict PA trader based on supply / demand levels?
short had 23 pip SL and the long 20 pips.
Yes I mainly trade horizontal S/R from 1hr and daily TF, while looking at overall bias from daily. Trying to follow trend as I see it, countertrend from strong levels. Entries on limit orders or price action.
Aim is to keep the stop loss as small as possible to maximize potential return.
  • #22,385
  • Jul 14, 2010 4:58pm Jul 14, 2010 4:58pm
What is usually the bigger impacted currency with the release of CHINA's GDP and CPI -- USD or AUD ?
  • #22,386
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:03pm Jul 14, 2010 8:03pm
See below daily on A/U, I've been eyeing that outside bullish candle since it closed the other day, technically things appear to me to show more upside, possibly breaking the current range, that double top and the 100MA. This could be a great entry ATM b/c there is obvious support (look at a small TF chart) in the 8780 area. Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7_14au.JPG Size: 30 KB
This is what awesome feels like
  • #22,387
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:11pm Jul 14, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting MarketInvest
We're testing for the second time the 61% fibonaci retracement of the last major descending movement. Don't know if we'll get to make a higher high or not but as long as major trend stays bearish, I'll be bearish on this pair. If trend changes, I'll change too. Not in the chart attached but this second test to the 61% is being done with much less momentum than in the first test.

Best Regards

MarketInvestor
Agree with you touch the point and falling down to the bottom
cross check the usdltfx reversal in process pa at the bottom area audlfx index
at the hardest resistance area let see what happen today ....

attached the d1 chart TF

cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #22,388
  • Edited 5:07am Jul 15, 2010 4:43am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting mrhb30jr
Agree with you touch the point and falling down to the bottom
cross check the usdltfx reversal in process pa at the bottom area audlfx index
at the hardest resistance area let see what happen today ....

attached the d1 chart TF

cheers
Hi!

Here's a chart update for the AUDUSD. Overbought, and with divergence in momentum. Still waiting to short it.

The bottom chart you posted is very similar to the AUDJPY one.

Cheers!

MarketInvestor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd15Julho2010.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #22,389
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:31am Jul 15, 2010 5:31am
Quoting MarketInvest
Hi!

Here's a chart update for the AUDUSD. Overbought, and with divergence in momentum. Still waiting to short it.

The bottom chart you posted is very similar to the AUDJPY one.

Cheers!

MarketInvestor

aud is a bit bearish compared with euro & pound, divergence on 1h rsi & macd, might be a good entry for intra-day short,only if it stays below today's high, cos this kind of slow & gradual diver on the rsi & macd can often be a very good beginning of next big move. i'l wait rsi to go below 50 then stay on the 5min for a short play

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,390
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:44am Jul 15, 2010 9:44am
Going out on a limb saying AUD is in for a decent sized pull back. Clear regection of the double top and fib retrace.
  • #22,391
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:49am Jul 15, 2010 10:49am
Hmmn. Aussie is following CAD closer than as opposed to EUR today. Once CAD starts to go up, Aussie will be going up.

My 2 cents
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #22,392
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:26am Jul 16, 2010 7:26am
Suspect there will soon be an unwinding of carry trades with JPY because apparently the Japanese Authorities will change leverage rules for brokers wef 01AUG10.

Expected reaction will be that investors will need to either increase their margin or unwind some contracts by selling high interest currencies and buying back Yen.

It is mid-month. Perhaps some people will start unwinding here or next week while NZD and AUD are at highs and infront of the 01AUG deadline.

Waiting to see if there will be a surge higher and will look short. I have set Short AUD @ 8980. Lets see if it hits.

I have this exerpt. There is no link. It is from a newsletter.

"
A .... potential reason for a strong yen is a change in regulations by
Japan's Financial Services Agency effective August 1. The Agency will
impose limits on leverage to 50 times while currently some brokers allow
up to 400 times leverage and this will impact approximately 1/3rd of
traders.

They will be forced to either provide increased margin or reduce
positions by buying yen and selling high interest rate currencies like the
Australian and New Zealand dollars and South African rand.

"

S: MARKET INSIGHT REPORT July 15, 2010

I have no link but I found an old newsletter of the same source. http://www.fx-concepts.com/private_c...ts/4157666.pdf

I'm guessing you have to pay to get the latest reports.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #22,393
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:07pm Jul 16, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting MarketInvest
Hi!

Here's a chart update for the AUDUSD. Overbought, and with divergence in momentum. Still waiting to short it.

The bottom chart you posted is very similar to the AUDJPY one.

Cheers!

MarketInvestor
Hi MInv,

What is your view
This is my view of this currency,Next week may be we can see the more down movement of the AUDUSD.....
Short Entry should be nice when break out 0.8680 for long term downtrend on D1TF, I would be add my short entry when the PA break out this point.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,394
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:45pm Jul 16, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting jimobiwan
Suspect there will soon be an unwinding of carry trades with JPY because apparently the Japanese Authorities will change leverage rules for brokers wef 01AUG10.

Expected reaction will be that investors will need to either increase their margin or unwind some contracts by selling high interest currencies and buying back Yen.

It is mid-month. Perhaps some people will start unwinding here or next week while NZD and AUD are at highs and infront of the 01AUG deadline.

Waiting to see if there will be a surge higher and will look short. I have set...
I highly doubt that the margin change rules will affect price that much. Not too many people carry trade with 50 fold leverage. That's just a really stupid idea.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #22,395
  • Jul 17, 2010 11:53am Jul 17, 2010 11:53am
Planning to close at this two levels (red boxes) for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,396
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:02pm Jul 17, 2010 8:02pm
My weekly TF AUDUSD ...... expected this currency to be move downward for the 1127 pips , TP1 0.8033 and TP2 0.7521 SL 0.8850

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdwk1 18.07.2010.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #22,397
  • Jul 17, 2010 9:09pm Jul 17, 2010 9:09pm
Hm, I wouldn't bet against the AUD for a couple of months...

G.
  • #22,398
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:27am Jul 18, 2010 4:27am
Why not ?
  • #22,399
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:49am Jul 18, 2010 4:49am
Quoting osceiv2
Hm, I wouldn't bet against the AUD for a couple of months...

G.

I would. A general election was called here on the weekend. Aussies are going to the polls August 21. This will create uncertainty.

Any carry trade pull back will hurt the Aussie, as will the EU stress tests later this week, AU being the short cover currency of choice for the Euro.

That said, a Canadian rate hike on Tuesday may see a temporary bounce in AU.
  • #22,400
  • Edited 11:38am Jul 18, 2010 9:10am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting mrhb30jr
My weekly TF AUDUSD ...... expected this currency to be move downward for the 1127 pips , TP1 0.8033 and TP2 0.7521 SL 0.8850

Cheers
Those are great expectations. I would love for this pair to slide down a little, 1127 would be fabulous. How long are you expecting this to take?
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