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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #881
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:42am Jul 15, 2010 3:42am
Quoting smikester
Hi Condor.Thanks for the chart. How do you play the trend line break? I'm just interested in hearing different ideas.
I supposed if I was not already in, I would wait for a 1hr candle close below, perhaps a retest to the underside of the TL - MAs, we all have different ones, all topside and projecting south - and then short. A 1-2-3 play, I guess.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #882
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:44am Jul 15, 2010 3:44am
by the way smikey....thanks for the vouch....not sure that deserving though
made tons of erratic calls....alot to learn still

throwing one back at ya
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #883
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:49am Jul 15, 2010 3:49am
If you want to see the fib and fan build that I have.

Currently a bit of a battle to save a conclusive break south. Will suck them in, and trust in Cable to do the right thing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: egd.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg4hr.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg1hr.gif Size: 38 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #884
  • Jul 15, 2010 4:11am Jul 15, 2010 4:11am
Quoting 45Condor
Currently a bit of a battle to save a conclusive break south. Will suck them in, and trust in Cable to do the right thing.
hi 45Condor, when you say that i reckon you mean a retrace on cable to negate the move dwn to 8200+ potential H&S?

price is hugging your 23.6 fib fan

may i ask what #ema or ma is that green line on your 1st chart?

thks a bunch
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #885
  • Jul 15, 2010 4:21am Jul 15, 2010 4:21am
Well, I was hoping for Cable to ramp up beyond a major fib that I have, but it seems to have taken a pause. Now, if the pause was used for EG to get a better price for another fall, who knows. Other instrument behaviours weigh heavily today, I think.

Yes, would like to see the 23.6 fan give way. However, as long as price hugs this, and the Guppy Profile remains intact to the south, I'll hold.

It is a 60 EMA.


Quoting archimede
hi 45Condor, when you say that i reckon you mean a retrace on cable to negate the move dwn to 8200+ potential H&S?

price is hugging your 23.6 fib fan

may i ask what #ema or ma is that green line on your 1st chart?

thks a bunch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 43 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #886
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:27am Jul 15, 2010 7:27am
Looking like an upward break with Euro strength. Let's see what the news brings.
Gone to a better place
  • #887
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:38am Jul 15, 2010 7:38am
empire state manu. index 5.1 vs 18.3 expected? how do they measure these things? are we gonna get an ugly # with philly later?


moved stop to 8345....this move was laboured...fingers crossed for some support from cable retrace at 5380? sell limit there

swissy buy at 0445 abt to be filled
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #888
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:42am Jul 15, 2010 7:42am
guys, what's the idea long term on this?

I'm thinking some downwards movement here to 0.825
  • #889
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:44am Jul 15, 2010 7:44am
seeing trouble here.....just got out

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 40 KB
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #890
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:28am Jul 15, 2010 8:28am
Aw well, out for nowt.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #891
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:29am Jul 15, 2010 11:29am
Well, decided to try and take another bite. Lovely 1hr pin, Guppy profile in need of a retrace, EU looking like a retrace, too, and anticipate further upside for Cable.

Suspect that the push to the D-R2 level was a stop hunt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg1hr.gif Size: 44 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #892
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:39pm Jul 15, 2010 5:39pm
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_8texnURUcC...600/EURGBP.bmp

lets see if we get a retest here
  • #893
  • Jul 16, 2010 4:57am Jul 16, 2010 4:57am
Quoting IdentifyTren
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_8texnURUcC...600/EURGBP.bmp

lets see if we get a retest here
Cut this morning for a little.

Hope you took the long, it's looking very nice.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #894
  • Jul 16, 2010 5:04am Jul 16, 2010 5:04am
After a nasty spate of ranging the price compressed into a 30 minute range this morning. The range was between significant levels .8360 and .8380. The hourly close at .8380 at was enough for me to set longs with a stop loss just under .8360. Pig headed persistence pays off. Now we have a base for longs (.8400) and I see next resistance at .8462
Gone to a better place
  • #895
  • Jul 16, 2010 5:11am Jul 16, 2010 5:11am
I wonder how much the Euro's extraordinary rise has been magnified by the closing Euro of shorts?
Gone to a better place
  • #896
  • Jul 16, 2010 6:58am Jul 16, 2010 6:58am
Quoting smikester
I wonder how much the Euro's extraordinary rise has been magnified by the closing Euro of shorts?
Attached Image


that and weak dollar data compounding problem

got this off learning markets video....the H&S target of ard 82 on the dollar index is almost reached....82.17 as of post......sorry abt the fuzzy chart but the best i could do


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got hurt -20pips on swissy ysterday....looking for 2ndary pattern at 1.0360, hope that holds after the news in half hour


good job smikey on the EG trade so far, looking gd still.....i'm working on the beast GJ today....just closed a short at 133.10 mthly pivot before news release

Attachment

8560 fib exp#61.8 and 38.2 ret....good to go?
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #897
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:17am Jul 16, 2010 10:17am
Bull flag , after the break and retest , re-entered long yesterday evening but was too tired to post.
If break 0,8460 level ,next s/r 0,8600
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #898
  • Jul 18, 2010 1:37am Jul 18, 2010 1:37am
Quoting 45Condor
Cut this morning for a little.

Hope you took the long, it's looking very nice.
Hi 45condor

just missed my limit buy order by 10 pips

oh well, next time i'll take it more aggressively
  • #899
  • Jul 18, 2010 9:10am Jul 18, 2010 9:10am
Yeah, I hate it when that happens.

Will watch closely this week, as I feel Sterling will want to push lower, for better price to buy come the results of the bank stress tests. Yes, I think that all accept that the tests are flawed, but we can't have the market seeming to know well in advance. No, the market may well tow the line and get as many long as possible, I think.


Quoting IdentifyTren
Hi 45condor

just missed my limit buy order by 10 pips

oh well, next time i'll take it more aggressively
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #900
  • Jul 18, 2010 9:35am Jul 18, 2010 9:35am
Quoting archimede
seeing trouble here.....just got out

Attachment
Archimede, which indicator is that on top? (In blue) Thanks
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