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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,301
  • Jul 13, 2010 12:11pm Jul 13, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting Custos
yeah the key concept is: price remains shortly at a demand/supply zone and then shoots off in one direction, if south then it's a supply zone if north it is a demand zone. Expectation is that this area where price has been before is now noticed by the experts and a lot of orders get stacked there, so if price retests that level, the professionals get in and cause another move from that area.

attached is an example (at least I believe it is an example) Please, anybody with more experience with seiden's material correct me if I am wrong. the orange...
Thanks for the explanation and Interesting observation, so this would mean that if there were high momentum bar at a level and price is approaching the same level again then one can expect a stronger high probability reaction .... opposed to those levels where the historical reaction was not as strong.

With respect to supply demand and S/R i have seen these terms used interchangeably. Resistance means when supply is expected to overcome deman and vice versa.

When you say: "For me demand / supply zones can be the same as S/R levels but don't have to be. I think if they match up it is a deadly combination. (deadly meaning high probability)"

Correct me if wrong .... so you are saying is : A clearly defined level + previous High Momentum reaction on that level = Deadly Combination aka high probability.
  • #7,302
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:14pm Jul 13, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting randomperson
the momentum against that pivot isnt too favorable, as well as possible reward
if it does react, going to see possibilities for a long from .8341
have exactly the same level for a long
  • #7,303
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:20pm Jul 13, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for the explanation and Interesting observation, so this would mean that if there were high momentum bar at a level and price is approaching the same level again then one can expect a stronger high probability reaction .... opposed to those levels where the historical reaction was not as strong.
yes

Quoting MktScape
With respect to supply demand and S/R i have seen these terms used interchangeably. Resistance means when supply is expected to overcome deman and vice versa.
well, I mean brv S/R levels, meaning historically significant S/R levels. There are lots of S/R levels on the chart, signficant and insignificant. So I mean, supply demand levels don't always match up with thos historically significant S/R levels.

Quoting MktScape
When you say: "For me demand / supply zones can be the same as S/R levels but don't have to be. I think if they match up it is a deadly combination. (deadly meaning high probability)"

Correct me if wrong .... so you are saying is : A clearly defined level + previous High Momentum reaction on that level = Deadly Combination aka high probability.
yep, that's what I am thinking of, but didn't test it yet, as I said, I just read it recently.
  • #7,304
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:31pm Jul 13, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Custos
have exactly the same level for a long
sorry didnt have my charts up. zooming out to 240, it'd be a good short if you missed the original 8403-area entry. has the potential to go to 8200-area.
  • #7,305
  • Jul 14, 2010 7:35am Jul 14, 2010 7:35am
EURGBP has broken through the trendline and made a lower high. I missed the first entry chance however i think a re-entry is possible at the yellow line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP-H1.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #7,306
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:40am Jul 14, 2010 8:40am
Quoting MktScape
EURGBP has broken through the trendline and made a lower high. I missed the first entry chance however i think a re-entry is possible at the yellow line.
hm, yes it made a lower high, but right now it is consolidating as show by my thick red lines.

Also I am not quite sure how you came up with your yellow line. My level on the chart is lower and I think fits better. I would actually think of a long right now, but I am already involved in two gbp trades so just gonna watch that one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 14.7.2010.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #7,307
  • Jul 14, 2010 9:34am Jul 14, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Custos
hm, yes it made a lower high, but right now it is consolidating as show by my thick red lines.

Also I am not quite sure how you came up with your yellow line. My level on the chart is lower and I think fits better. I would actually think of a long right now, but I am already involved in two gbp trades so just gonna watch that one.
Hi Custos,
You are right the level you have drawn is fitting better ... its more of a range. Right now i can see a rejection pin bar in this range.

By the way what are your thought one getting into multiple trades for the same major currency such as EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD etc. I remember this was discussed sometime earlier and you said something on the line of taking the trade within the risk parameters. As far as i understand multiple trades with same base pair should be avoided becuase all of the can turn against at the same time.

Could you elaborate on this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.PNG Size: 25 KB
  • #7,308
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:11am Jul 14, 2010 11:11am
Quoting MktScape
Hi Custos,
You are right the level you have drawn is fitting better ... its more of a range. Right now i can see a rejection pin bar in this range.

By the way what are your thought one getting into multiple trades for the same major currency such as EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD etc. I remember this was discussed sometime earlier and you said something on the line of taking the trade within the risk parameters. As far as i understand multiple trades with same base pair should be avoided becuase all of the can turn against at the same time.

Could you...
what I do these days is to look how many potential setups I have, then I look at several risk parameters.

 

  1. portfolio risk (max risk on all trades)
  2. currency risk (meaning how much do I want to risk on eur based trades for example)
  3. now I look how many potential setups I have and how many are based on the same currency, then divide my currency risk up by my potential trades. Like let's say for example 2% currency risk with 4 trade setups of the same currency, then it's 0.5% (2% / 4) per setup -> this is then the amount I wanna risk per trade on those same currency trades

Now if I get a new trade coming up, but I am already involed with my full alloted currency risk, then I might bend this rule to fit in one more trade. But I never want to go beyond my portfolio risk. At least that's my rule, which might change if I experience that there are better risk rules out there.

hope that answers your question

cheers

  • #7,309
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:37pm Jul 14, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting Custos
what I do these days is to look how many potential setups I have, then I look at several risk parameters.
[list=1][*]portfolio risk (max risk on all trades)[*]currency risk (meaning how much do I want to risk on eur based trades for example)[*]now I look how many potential setups I have and how many are based on the same currency, then divide my currency risk up by my potential trades. Like let's say for example 2% currency risk with 4 trade setups of the same currency, then it's 0.5% (2% / 4) per setup -> this is then the amount I wanna...
Thanks for the explanation. ok so going back to one of our earlier discussion on increasing the position sizes trades setup with retests.

There is one things which i recall from an article or book is to get over confident and trying to take higher position size then usual ....which could lead to giving back the profits earned from 4 trade in 1 or 2 trades.

So while the idea of taking higher position size using high probability setups certainly looks appealing there are inherent underlying drawback which could one need to be cautious.
  • #7,310
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:42pm Jul 14, 2010 5:42pm
Price is stuck between the zone for sometime now and looks like it may break upwards in which case it will be good long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD-H4.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #7,311
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:35am Jul 15, 2010 1:35am
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for the explanation. ok so going back to one of our earlier discussion on increasing the position sizes trades setup with retests.

There is one things which i recall from an article or book is to get over confident and trying to take higher position size then usual ....which could lead to giving back the profits earned from 4 trade in 1 or 2 trades.

So while the idea of taking higher position size using high probability setups certainly looks appealing there are inherent underlying drawback which could one need to be cautious.
well, that depends, if you consistently use higher lot-size for those kinds of setups and you have a positive expectancy, then you don't have that problem you described. But for all the newbies, never risk an incredible amount on one trade compared to your account size. I am just thinking of increasing lot-size a little bit, not to an insane amount.
  • #7,312
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:38am Jul 15, 2010 1:38am
Quoting MktScape
Price is stuck between the zone for sometime now and looks like it may break upwards in which case it will be good long.
I am actually looking for a short at the blue shaded area. Let's see if that happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h1 15.7.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,313
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:08am Jul 15, 2010 7:08am
Quoting Custos
I am actually looking for a short at the blue shaded area. Let's see if that happens.
definitely a level there on your chart, albeit hard to pin exactly.
market died ahead of news here.
eurusd has confluence for a counter-trend short, but i'm not going to take it.
missed a short of usdjpy but if 88 flips i'm in.
eurgbp in a sideways channel with a bit of chop, so looking for another hint. not sure if 8342 is dead or still respected, or if it will try and get rid of the channel.
  • #7,314
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:47am Jul 15, 2010 7:47am
Quoting Custos
I am actually looking for a short at the blue shaded area. Let's see if that happens.
and should that level breaks then we have another one above it which you are showing as a blue line... i am posting a zoomed out version.

I think we will get a reaction at the level you have identified earlier ... price is approaching it soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD-H4.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #7,315
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:07am Jul 15, 2010 8:07am
Price is sitting on a support for couple of days now in on overall down trend. The last 3 days PA appears weak. It looks like a good short on a break and retest from below.

Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #7,316
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:13am Jul 15, 2010 8:13am
Quoting MktScape
Price is sitting on a support for couple of days now in on overall down trend. The last 3 days PA appears weak. It looks like a good short on a break and retest from below.

Any thoughts?
pulling up an hourly chart, i see a lot of support below. would personally prefer it long for better r:r. still sideways though, with momentum being a tad on the downside for now.
  • #7,317
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:24am Jul 15, 2010 8:24am
Quoting MktScape
Price is sitting on a support for couple of days now in on overall down trend. The last 3 days PA appears weak. It looks like a good short on a break and retest from below.

Any thoughts?
hm, it could go to either side, and I agree with randomperson, going long would be favorable in terms of profit target.

cheers
  • #7,318
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:54am Jul 15, 2010 8:54am
Quoting Custos
hm, yes it made a lower high, but right now it is consolidating as show by my thick red lines.

Also I am not quite sure how you came up with your yellow line. My level on the chart is lower and I think fits better. I would actually think of a long right now, but I am already involved in two gbp trades so just gonna watch that one.
After waiting for 24Hrs i decided to close this one for a small loss. Price is sloshing up and down through the s/r zone however so far failed to take a direction ... i was looking to short. So I applied my time stop rule as it was getting too long a wait .... however since the position is now closed, price will now take off somewhere.
  • #7,319
  • Jul 15, 2010 2:37pm Jul 15, 2010 2:37pm
oof...messed up another trade today. summer > me this week lol.
how'd you guys end up this week?
  • #7,320
  • Jul 15, 2010 2:59pm Jul 15, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting randomperson
oof...messed up another trade today. summer > me this week lol.
how'd you guys end up this week?
yeah the fast drop/rise in cad pairs made it an unprofitable day today. But still up for the week.
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