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Silent Service Method

  • #9,721
  • Edited 3:55pm Jul 14, 2010 9:58am | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting clockwork71
follow up on beans....
Hey Clock,

Not denying the validity of a technical setup to short beans, and there's no doubt about it that $10 is a huge psychological level there. Just keep in mind that grain prices have a correlation to the other commodities, and as long as stocks want to go up and people are shorting the $, grain prices may be supported.
For what it's worth, summer drought would no doubt support the prices, but from what I can tell in the Midwest, the weather has been VERY favorable for excellent crop conditions so far this year. A lot of corn was planted in early April when conditions were dry and favorable, and we could be looking at a bumper crop in that regard. Yet corn prices remain in the $3.70's-worldwide grain demand.

just some things to
consider......
  • #9,722
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:08am Jul 14, 2010 10:08am
Quoting albertsy2
Hi Chris, here's what I was talking about. If I put my SL at the swing low, the drawdown will be larger but give the trade room to move. Thanks!
In situations like this you can adjust your position size to control your risk.

I have a simple spreadsheet that I use. I enter my entry and stop, the sheet calculates the pips from entry to stop and calculates how many mini-lots I should trade based on my account balance and % risk.

The smaller the stop, the more lots I trade.
  • #9,723
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:16am Jul 14, 2010 10:16am
This thread has made a huge difference in my trading. My goal is to learn as much as I can from the other traders here and improve my trading as much as possible.

I am in the process of compiling a 'text book' of sorts for myself. I will be reviewing it on a regular basis to help myself avoid stupid mistakes.

I am going to post charts and ask for reader input.

This is not a test or a contest. I simply want honest feedback and opinions.

I know what I see when I look at a chart. I want to know what you see.

So please comment on the following and post charts with your analysis.

Chris, if this creates too much clutter, or you feel it detracts from your thread let us know and I can accept replies via PM. If you like this idea we'll continue and maybe we can all learn something.

Chart #1 Weekly AUDUSD.

What is the trend in this chart and why. Please explain. Feel free to post a chart with your analysis and comments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud trend.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #9,724
  • Jul 14, 2010 2:25pm Jul 14, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting jharvey407
This thread has made a huge difference in my trading. My goal is to learn as much as I can from the other traders here and improve my trading as much as possible.

I am in the process of compiling a 'text book' of sorts for myself. I will be reviewing it on a regular basis to help myself avoid stupid mistakes.

I am going to post charts and ask for reader input.

This is not a test or a contest. I simply want honest feedback and opinions.

I know what I see when I look at a chart. I want to know what you see.

So please comment on the following...

This is a real quick and dirty chart, but I am saying it's not in a downtrend. Yet.

Often, when you get a trend line break, like the one we just had - price will go sideways. (Hence the two horizontal lines.) As you know, often when support is broken, there is a retest. This is where we might be now. Time will tell, but we "should" know soon.

My bias is still down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.png Size: 44 KB
  • #9,725
  • Jul 14, 2010 2:45pm Jul 14, 2010 2:45pm
Quick, someone give me a thesis why the AUD might be going down in the near future?

I am interested in what some of you guys have put together in knowledge, and you can use anything I have or have not taught. Think outside the box. (I hate that phrase.)

Notice I said the AUD....not just the AUD/USD.

Think of me as your client, wanting like hell to buy AUD.....but you have to figure out any reasons why I wouldn't want to. This is a signal contest, just a well-rounded thought process.....
  • #9,726
  • Edited 2:58pm Jul 14, 2010 2:46pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
Quick, someone give me a thesis why the AUD might be going down in the near future?

I am interested in what some of you guys have put together in knowledge, and you can use anything I have or have not taught. Think outside the box. (I hate that phrase.)

Notice I said the AUD....not just the AUD/USD.

Think of me as your client, wanting like hell to buy AUD.....but you have to figure out any reasons why I wouldn't want to. This is a signal contest, just a well-rounded thought process.....
The Chinese are broke!

Oh, sorry. I guess a single sentence isn't a thesis.
  • #9,727
  • Jul 14, 2010 3:22pm Jul 14, 2010 3:22pm
Hi Chris and All,

I am learning a lot from this thread and yours as well as everyone’s contribution is much appreciated.

I have a one query about the different time zones. Please see following charts.

Chart 1 shows UK time (as I am based in UK) taken at 8:45pm and chart 2 shows US time (I guess) taken at 15:45pm (as on MT4 market watch). These charts are produce at the same time. One from live account and another from demo account. (I guess demo account server is in US and live account server is in UK and that’s why the time difference is there)

On chart 1, a perfect pin bar has formed on H4 where as chart 2 is a totally different story. My question is how you interpret these charts in such situation? I would appreciate your thoughts on this.


Thanks,
niks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,728
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:50pm Jul 14, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting calderone
The Chinese are broke!

Oh, sorry. I guess a single sentence isn't a thesis.
The Chinese are broke as soon as the US defaults. Which isn't yet.....but give it time.
  • #9,729
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:52pm Jul 14, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting niks03
Hi Chris and All,

I am learning a lot from this thread and yours as well as everyone’s contribution is much appreciated.

I have a one query about the different time zones. Please see following charts.

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Chart 1 shows UK time (as I am based in UK) taken at 8:45pm and chart 2 shows US time (I guess) taken at 15:45pm (as on MT4 market watch). These charts are produce at the same time....

In short.....trade the chart you have. Time zones don't really matter in the end. If it's a pinbar, it's a pinbar.....try not to over complicate it.

I actually did some videos for the group about this, and it's one of things that isn't complicated, but the explanation could be. (Hence the reason I did a video, instead of writing about on private forum.)
  • #9,730
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:54pm Jul 14, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting Bluegrass4X
Hey Clock,...
True. But I would be remiss if I didn't see it as a trade. Not a long term one, but one that could be good for something like a couple of days......

I believe that the local farmers in Ohio have been doing quite well this year.....but then again, I know little about the ag fundies to be honest.....
  • #9,731
  • Jul 14, 2010 6:33pm Jul 14, 2010 6:33pm
Hi
i look at daily and i get an answer , please find attached the daily chart to see if we are in an uptrend or down trend .
as for the entry you show on your chart , we had a break of a trendline on a daily chart and it would have been good to enter when it has retraced around 0.8700 . on my chart it show we have a S/R at 8870 exactly where u have entered !
this is what i see on AU , and this is what i understand by trading what you see not what you expect .
regards
samer


Quoting jharvey407
This thread has made a huge difference in my trading. My goal is to learn as much as I can from the other traders here and improve my trading as much as possible.

I am in the process of compiling a 'text book' of sorts for myself. I will be reviewing it on a regular basis to help myself avoid stupid mistakes.

I am going to post charts and ask for reader input.

This is not a test or a contest. I simply want honest feedback and opinions.

I know what I see when I look at a chart. I want to know what you see.

So please comment on the following...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au daily.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #9,732
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:23pm Jul 14, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting calderone
The Chinese are broke!

Oh, sorry. I guess a single sentence isn't a thesis.





....because Samer Soros is long !
  • #9,733
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:29pm Jul 14, 2010 8:29pm
clock, what is your view on audchf. I was thinking it would be a great short opportunity. B4 I enter I would like your opinion because whenever Price action makes sense to me it becomes invalidated.
  • #9,734
  • Edited 8:45pm Jul 14, 2010 8:40pm | Edited 8:45pm
Chart #1 Weekly AUDUSD.

What is the trend in this chart and why. Please explain. Feel free to post a chart with your analysis and comments.[/quote]




Good point James !

She could go either way....but if she breaks that trend line....I'm all in LONG.

Selling the house...giving up my membership...trading in the Highlander.



G'day mate,




golfer
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  • #9,735
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:58pm Jul 14, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting golferfx
....because Samer Soros is long !
  • #9,736
  • Jul 14, 2010 9:13pm Jul 14, 2010 9:13pm
client: I'm thinking of allocating some funds to the Aussie market.

new broker: great...Mr client I would like to introduce you to our newest fund, the AARF...Aussie Absolute Return Fund.

client: what's the track record ?

new broker: well, the fund has been only availiable to high end clients but we have decided to open up the fund to everyone.

client: what's the track record ??

new broker: 33% compounded annually since inception.

client: what's the load ?

new broker: the what ?

client: the expense of buying the fund.

broker: oh, only 9.75% and a 3% redemption fee after 4 months of sale.

client: uumm..ok...if we go with this, what do you reccomend for a stop ?

new broker: what's a stop.


My thesis of client/ new broker relatonships.

Which is all your gonna get my friends.



  • #9,737
  • Jul 14, 2010 9:45pm Jul 14, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting clockwork71

I say we are building up for a sucker's rally. I could be wrong.
You're not wrong.
In a year some will wish, they've sold YM in May 2k10 @ 11k
  • #9,738
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:17pm Jul 14, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting raczekfx
You're not wrong.
In a year some will wish, they've sold YM in May 2k10 @ 11k
I just wanna know when.....
  • #9,739
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:40pm Jul 14, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting clockwork71
Quick, someone give me a thesis why the AUD might be going down in the near future?

I am interested in what some of you guys have put together in knowledge, and you can use anything I have or have not taught. Think outside the box. (I hate that phrase.)

Notice I said the AUD....not just the AUD/USD.
I'll take a shot (and I'll only use AUD/USD as my chart of choice)...


Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-07-14_AUD.png Size: 46 KB


Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-07-14_AUD(daily).png Size: 53 KB


So... are we at a no-brainer spot to go long? I'd wait and see. After all, it's a zone, right? Not just a number...

Not to mention, the AUD economy is very levered to the world economy as a whole. Look at their index, it's 30% banks, and another 30% Mining & Oil Shares (i'm making the assumption their index mirrors their economy as a whole). Not exactly stocks that do great in recessions...

If we're out of the recession, by all means, go long. But if there's a chance we're not, hmmm... might want to think twice...
  • #9,740
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:17am Jul 15, 2010 12:17am
three outside up pattern completed on the daily GU, price at trend line will it break it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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