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Silent Service Method

  • #9,701
  • Jul 13, 2010 12:54pm Jul 13, 2010 12:54pm
http://i30.tinypic.com/2vj4c2r.png
  • #9,702
  • Jul 13, 2010 1:37pm Jul 13, 2010 1:37pm
lucky guess from last month (june 10 post)... just goes to show when goldman advise to do one thing do the other, they are taking the other(inevitably right) side of the position
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Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #9,703
  • Jul 13, 2010 2:07pm Jul 13, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Low
http://i30.tinypic.com/2vj4c2r.png
To be honest, I would have waiting on the close of this bar to see the shape.....

But for what's worth, I am rooting for you!
  • #9,704
  • Jul 13, 2010 2:08pm Jul 13, 2010 2:08pm
Looks like the rally today is low volume. Yet again.

The sheep will be watching Intel's earnings report after the close of NYSE today.
  • #9,705
  • Jul 13, 2010 2:20pm Jul 13, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting aserbfx
something to watch for the next week...
well, what can i say?!

pcln up about 7% today ... enough said!
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,706
  • Jul 13, 2010 2:24pm Jul 13, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
To be honest, I would have waiting on the close of this bar to see the shape.....

But for what's worth, I am rooting for you!
Looks like I'm gonna need it.
  • #9,707
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:23pm Jul 13, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting aserbfx
well, what can i say?!

pcln up about 7% today ... enough said!
My account thanks you!
  • #9,708
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:26pm Jul 13, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Low
Looks like I'm gonna need it.
OK...I try to trade my plan, but I just closed up shop on the pound/kiwi for a 1% loss (total for all 3 positions).

I long the pound/dollar, and long the kiwi/dollar, which pretty much just hedges the gbp/nzd. So I'm out. I do still want it, I will still watch it, but I'm not letting all 3 positions get stopped out on their own for -3%.

If I get back in I'll post it here.
  • #9,709
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:25pm Jul 13, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting aserbfx
well, what can i say?!

pcln up about 7% today ... enough said!
I told you. CAPT. JAMES T. KIRK.
  • #9,710
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:51pm Jul 13, 2010 5:51pm
follow up on beans....
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  • #9,711
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:57pm Jul 13, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting clockwork71
The sheep will be watching Intel's earnings report after the close of NYSE today.
I don't get this comment...

Caring about intel's earnings makes people sheep? They're a pretty big bellwether company and like Alcoa give some pretty big clues about future economic growth... (Not to mention they are a Dow Component company and a big chunk of the Nasdaq 100)
  • #9,712
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:12pm Jul 13, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting aserbfx
well, what can i say?!

pcln up about 7% today ... enough said!
I would say you had a "decent" day.
  • #9,713
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:18pm Jul 13, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I don't get this comment...

Caring about intel's earnings makes people sheep? They're a pretty big bellwether company and like Alcoa give some pretty big clues about future economic growth... (Not to mention they are a Dow Component company and a big chunk of the Nasdaq 100)
Yes, in a way it does. The reason is simple. Intel does not an economy make. Intel reports good - which they did, now all of the sudden there are no headwinds in the economy. The world is perfect, Israel and Palestine decide to combine into one peaceful nation and convert to some take off of the Mayan religion. Holland can field a decent voetbal side at the WC.....

Ok I am rambling.

The truth is this: Alcoa beat lowered estimates. That's hardly convincing. Intel beats as well, and that's great - if you are selling servers.

There is one thing that this market doesn't take into consideration. The U-6 number. It's about 17%!

You can't have a real unemployment number like that and expect all things to be hunky-dorey for long.

I say we are building up for a sucker's rally. I could be wrong.

Conventional wisdom says HP should take off with Intel. Because if Intel is doing well....so should all computer companies, right? Not so. Some are better than others. But what do I know, I only use common sense.

The truth is, Wall Street has never been this disconnected from the actual economy in my opinion. But....everyone has an opinion. That makes a market.
  • #9,714
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:12pm Jul 13, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, in a way it does. The reason is simple. Intel does not an economy make. Intel reports good - which they did, now all of the sudden there are no headwinds in the economy.
I don't think anyone is saying there are no headwinds to the economy even with Intel reporting good numbers. But caring about server/chip demand doesn't make people sheep. I want to know if companies and consumers are spending money on upgrading their equipment. If businesses are investing in new technology that is a clue for whether they will be hiring. If people are buying more aluminum, they are making more stuff (growing GDP) using more workers to make more stuff...These are good things.

Quote
The truth is this: Alcoa beat lowered estimates. That's hardly convincing.
That they may have, but they also raised their guidance for both earnings and revenues going forward. Everyone knew that Intel & Alcoa would probably beat earnings estimates. What they didn't know is that they would project earnings & revenues much higher in the future. The market discounts the future and cares less about the past. They don't care that Apple sold 2mm Iphone 4s (probably more than expected) they care that they might have to do a recall because of a faulty antennae...Hence why in a market like today's Apple was one of the only stocks that was down!

Quote
There is one thing that this market doesn't take into consideration. The U-6 number. It's about 17%!

You can't have a real unemployment number like that and expect all things to be hunky-dorey for long.
I didn't say the economy was out of the woods, but I do say that it is recovering... The U6 number was lower than it was last month, and that was lower than the month before that (BLS Data)...Job creation is not where it needs to be, but the private sector is creating jobs.

Quote
I say we are building up for a sucker's rally. I could be wrong.
That could be. But think of it this way...

The S&P 500 peaked at 1573... now it's at 1100 (give or take). It's down 31% from its peak a few years back... It's not like we're in some raging multi-year bull market. During the panic, the market fell almost 60% from that peak... pricing in something akin to the great depression. In the Great Depression, we had 25+% official unemployment, bread lines, massive deflation, etc. Are we in the same boat as then? I doubt it.

Also, don't forget that from 1932 to 1936, the Dow more than tripled from 42 to 156 and the economy certainly wasn't the best it's ever been...
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(Yes, I know, you can post the chart from 1929 to 1932, but I'm trying to be optimistic here...)

Anyhow, something about the word sheep just rubbed me the wrong way...
  • #9,715
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:58pm Jul 13, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting InfinitySL

Anyhow, something about the word sheep just rubbed me the wrong way...
Fair enough. But it's a heard out there, and they all get slaughtered at the same time. Pick another farm animal to describe them I guess. It's all the same.

I get the bit about buying chips. But the companies are actually a year late in the cycle from most accounts.....it was just a matter of putting off as long as they could I suppose.

Also, notice how the companies are doing just fine without hiring or employed customers.....something that defies logic at best.

I think job creation is a very, very long way off.

I know that I have zero plans myself to hire anyone. Most of the other business owners I know feel the same way, and Columbus has fared much, much better than most of the country. (Ohio was hit, but we almost have a different economy than the rest of the state.)

The point is this: If people aren't working, they aren't buying. I think that will win out in the end. Also, US small businesses are now paying a higher spread above the Fed funds rate for credit than has ever been reported. I think this is a killer too.
  • #9,716
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:33pm Jul 13, 2010 11:33pm
Hi Chris,

I've been applying your method for a few months now and I am currently somewhere being maybe "break even" kind of trader (on demo). Anyway, I have a question regarding SL.

Do you place your SL on the other side of the SR line/zone, or do you place your SL at the last swing H/L (which will be on the other side of the SR line/zone too; but just require more drawdown)? Placing it at the last swing H/L will affect the R:R, sometimes pushing it to less than 1, but this gives the trade more room to run...

Thanks!
  • #9,717
  • Jul 14, 2010 12:07am Jul 14, 2010 12:07am
Quoting albertsy2
Hi Chris,

I've been applying your method for a few months now and I am currently somewhere being maybe "break even" kind of trader (on demo). Anyway, I have a question regarding SL.

Do you place your SL on the other side of the SR line/zone, or do you place your SL at the last swing H/L (which will be on the other side of the SR line/zone too; but just require more drawdown)? Placing it at the last swing H/L will affect the R:R, sometimes pushing it to less than 1, but this gives the trade more room to run...

Thanks!
I try to put it behind a round number for starters.....and then I try to put it behind whatever bar got me in the trade as well.

So if I short a Bearish Outside Bar that has a high of 1.2690, I will put my stop above both the bar and the 1.2700 mark. I would put it at something like 1.2725.

This allows for two things: The push back on that bar serves as some kind of barrier, AND the large number of orders at the round number. (A large number of orders are right around "round numbers like 1.2000 and 1.16.)

I hope this was clear. If not - let me know and I will try a little harder. It's 1 AM here. lol

Chris
  • #9,718
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:33am Jul 14, 2010 8:33am
Hi Chris, here's what I was talking about. If I put my SL at the swing low, the drawdown will be larger but give the trade room to move. Thanks!
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  • #9,719
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:55am Jul 14, 2010 8:55am
Quoting clockwork71
I know that I have zero plans myself to hire anyone.
Hi Chris,
Would you mind if i asked you why you are still working? In the painting trade? You have been trading profitably for a long time now, and have a private site.
This is not meant at all as an attack, so apologies if it comes across wrong
John.
  • #9,720
  • Jul 14, 2010 8:58am Jul 14, 2010 8:58am
Nice pin on GBPCAD on Monday. I havent taken it to BE yet, but its in an area of high resistance. Im a daily trader now only so im going to watch it every night and see...
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