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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #68,621
  • Jul 14, 2010 9:49am Jul 14, 2010 9:49am
Quoting Adilius07
First pinbar is better
But to be serious this is a one big problem I have. To take a trade or not? I know it must stand out for me. But I look at it and it seems like it stands out... then it don't.... Will come from experience I guess... So far this month in profit, we will see...
  • #68,622
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:19am Jul 14, 2010 10:19am
stopped out in eurusd as expected.. very boring day..
  • #68,623
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:34am Jul 14, 2010 10:34am
Guys, I am trying to put my trading plan together.

One thing I am still in doubt. When you have a trade that is not working i.e. it is showing loss but there is still some distance until your stop-loss.

For example your stop-loss is 90 pips and a trade is showing 50 pips loss. What would you do?

Close it for a loss? (cut it for 50 pips loss)
Hope it will come back into profit?
Let it be and see if it go to stop you out for 90 pips?

Would be very thankful for any advice on this. Thanks!
  • #68,624
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:43am Jul 14, 2010 10:43am
Quoting Adilius07
Guys, I am trying to put my trading plan together.

One thing I am still in doubt. When you have a trade that is not working i.e. it is showing loss but there is still some distance until your stop-loss.

For example your stop-loss is 90 pips and a trade is showing 50 pips loss. What would you do?

Close it for a loss? (cut it for 50 pips loss)
Hope it will come back into profit?
Let it be and see if it go to stop you out for 90 pips?

Would be very thankful for any advice on this. Thanks!
Re-evaluate the chart & consider if you would take the Trade right now with a 40P Stop.
  • #68,625
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:01am Jul 14, 2010 11:01am
Quoting Bemac
Re-evaluate the chart & consider if you would take the Trade right now with a 40P Stop.
Thank you Bemac, but I already know my answer would be NO. Good trade usually goes to FTA "almost immediately". So this way I would cut almost every trade.

So you mean I need to see each instance individually? Not to have on solution for all like: Move stop to the last 1hr bar, or wait for a few more bars then out... smth like this... Makes more sence but could be very subjective Im afraid
  • #68,626
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:11am Jul 14, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Bemac
Re-evaluate the chart & consider if you would take the Trade right now with a 40P Stop.
what a great response B

Sometimes things change in a trade and it means time to get out
Sometimes things change in a trade and it means time to say in
  • #68,627
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:12am Jul 14, 2010 11:12am
Hey Mike, this is for you.
These situations on exotic pairs are very interesting and I saw a few posts from you regarding multiple bar high/low breakouts.
Here we have a down trend, HUGEST round number 20 and a multiple bar low break. I don't have much experience in trading these, except of a few good demo trades on EURCHF. Very tight stop and trailing TP.

Do you trade these often?
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  • #68,628
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:12am Jul 14, 2010 11:12am
Quoting Adilius07
...
What was your reason for a 90P stop?

Is it still valid?

In my book, Capital Preservation ranks higher than Capital Growth.
  • #68,629
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:14am Jul 14, 2010 11:14am
Quoting benji533
Hey Mike, this is for you.
These situations on exotic pairs are very interesting and I saw a few posts from you regarding multiple bar high/low breakouts.
Here we have a down trend, HUGEST round number 20 and a multiple bar low break. I don't have much experience in trading these, except of a few good demo trades on EURCHF. Very tight stop and trailing TP.

Do you trade these often?
Hey Benji

Very rarely do I trade them lower then daily/weekly timeframes. If you find that same setup on the weekly you can almost put those pips in the bank on a burst out

Mike
  • #68,630
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:18am Jul 14, 2010 11:18am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Benji

Very rarely do I trade them lower then daily/weekly timeframes. If you find that same setup on the weekly you can almost put those pips in the bank on a burst out

Mike
Actually my demos were on the 1h lol
Anyway these can be great plays...just need a good play plan which I am working on
  • #68,631
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:18am Jul 14, 2010 11:18am
Kinda new posting to this thread but have been around for a while in the forums.

Just noticed this on the eurgbp weekly. Price hit 50.0% retracement, support, 150ema... formed a pinbar which did break up. It is being rejected by some bar lows to the left... not sure if my analysis for this is right?
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  • #68,632
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:18am Jul 14, 2010 11:18am
Thank you Mike, Bemac!

My reason for 90 pips stop was %MM from my total account size.
On 4HR chart is way far (from the swing high/low I used to put it) But on daily bar it looks alright... I thought that is one way to do it??

This stop management is yet a problem for me yes.
  • #68,633
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:31am Jul 14, 2010 11:31am
Quoting Adilius07
Thank you Mike, Bemac!

My reason for 90 pips stop was %MM from my total account size.
On 4HR chart is way far (from the swing high/low I used to put it) But on daily bar it looks alright... I thought that is one way to do it??

This stop management is yet a problem for me yes.
It's tough to find what works for you. I suggest tracking multiple exit strategies along side your demo in a spreadsheet. When you have 6 months+ of data you can really learn about yourself.
  • #68,634
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:32am Jul 14, 2010 11:32am
Quoting benji533
Actually my demos were on the 1h lol
Anyway these can be great plays...just need a good play plan which I am working on
yeah they work on all tiemframes like any other PA. But like everything I just get extra conservative and find them easiest to handle on the higher timeframes specifically. B/c the level becomes that much more important. More rare of course, but they happen alright.

Hope all is well Ben

Mike
  • #68,635
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:34am Jul 14, 2010 11:34am
Quoting zoopy
Kinda new posting to this thread but have been around for a while in the forums.

Just noticed this on the eurgbp weekly. Price hit 50.0% retracement, support, 150ema... formed a pinbar which did break up. It is being rejected by some bar lows to the left... not sure if my analysis for this is right?
Hey Zoopy

perfect analysis, this one has gone to where we would expect, now we have to see what happens. Nothing can surprise us here and it is up to the trader to decide what is the best course of action for them beyond this point. This is j16 simple and effective

Keep posting
Mike
  • #68,636
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:34am Jul 14, 2010 11:34am
Quoting mbqb11
It's tough to find what works for you. I suggest tracking multiple exit strategies along side your demo in a spreadsheet. When you have 6 months+ of data you can really learn about yourself.
Mike, cool thanks. I will try to see what fits me best psychologically as well as in dollar terms. I think of something like zooming to the lower TF, and if it shows some opposing signals like bearish Pin when I am long - then get out. If not take my chances and wait. I will try everything to come out with something...
  • #68,637
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:44am Jul 14, 2010 11:44am
Quoting Adilius07
Thank you Mike, Bemac!

My reason for 90 pips stop was %MM from my total account size.
On 4HR chart is way far (from the swing high/low I used to put it) But on daily bar it looks alright... I thought that is one way to do it??

This stop management is yet a problem for me yes.
Before I take a Trade I evaluate Both the Risk & the Potential.
The attached is merely an example & not a reccomendation.

Let's say I have a reason to Buy the EURUSD.
Where do I think it is headed?
If I'm Wrong, how Much am I willing to Risk?
Obviously I'm not going to Risk 900P on a Trade I think has a Potential of +154P;
So; Risk 83P.
Now I have to think about How Many Lots should I buy?
Let's see...
1 Full Lot would be Risking $830.00 of the account.
Is that less than 2% of the Account? If Yes, I'm good to Go. If Not, What fraction of a Full Lot can I Buy with 2% of the Account.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4hr adilius07 example.gif Size: 34 KB


Does that help?
  • #68,638
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:54am Jul 14, 2010 11:54am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Zoopy

perfect analysis, this one has gone to where we would expect, now we have to see what happens. Nothing can surprise us here and it is up to the trader to decide what is the best course of action for them beyond this point. This is j16 simple and effective

Keep posting
Mike
Thanks Mike

just trying to get reacquainted with PA again. Been a while. Funny thing is... when I was trading PA at the time I've now realized I was actually trading it wrong hah. Go figure.
  • #68,639
  • Jul 14, 2010 11:57am Jul 14, 2010 11:57am
Quoting Bemac
Before I take a Trade I evaluate Both the Risk & the Potential.
The attached is merely an example & not a reccomendation.

Let's say I have a reason to Buy the EURUSD.
Where do I think it is headed?
If I'm Wrong, how Much am I willing to Risk?
Obviously I'm not going to Risk 900P on a Trade I think has a Potential of +154P;
So; Risk 83P.
Now I have to think about How Many Lots should I buy?
Let's see...
1 Full Lot would be Risking $830.00 of the account.
Is that less than 2% of the Account? If Yes, I'm good to Go. If Not, What fraction of a...

Bemac, yes I try to do the same analysis 90p is not more than 3% of my account. I have FTA on my charts, I know where I would take profit if trade stalls. But.

What if you set your order, it is triggered, however before you even noticed (did not set to breakeven or anything) this trade begins to slowly drift against you. This is what make me still unclear. In your Example you have $830 risk, you accept it, it is not greater than you %MM allowed. You made a picky descion and took it. But it simply doesn't work. Yes it might go to your FTA but now you do not know and what to do???

Thank you, I wrote this just to clarify my question. I traded with a mentor before (daytrading ES futures) his philosophy was to NEVER cut the trade before stop-loss because. "The Market has to prove to you that you were wrong" - so that is why I still kind of not sure.
  • #68,640
  • Jul 14, 2010 12:22pm Jul 14, 2010 12:22pm
Bemac, I'm afraid my question and elaboration was not clear due to my language problem. I will post this chart I found in this thread. All good entries are marked on chart with arrows.

But, we can see that each time price retraced, sometimes a lot! (I marked it with red). So if I try to cut my losses early ( before swing bar high/low) I would actually have all this entries as losers!!! To have them as winners - as shown here I would actually have to WAIT through the LOOSING phase.

So that is why I am lost a little. Waiting through the loosing phase that means sometimes I would experience big loses ( not more than my %MM though) because it will hit my stop-loss.

So according to this chart the best way would be just to sit and wait through this painful retracement in believe that the setup was good and it should go to profit or at least to where I can put stop to BE?

Or am I absolutely confused and wrong now? I just want to do this right. Now I have a streak of winning trades all only because with J16 my entries improved fantastically and I want to keep it this way!!

This chart is just an example. Some entries would be BE, I cant see it from daily. As example of worst case scenario: "trade entered and immediately went against you".
Attached Image
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