Up and Down with TT

Good day to you,

This is a continuation journal of the previous one started, where I investigated and attempted to trade cycles. The main reason for the new journal, is to get things organised and concise.

Moving Averages are still used as the "heart" of the "system". I have however decided to apply Volume to Weighted MA as the driver. Applied with a simple trend indicator, it is very possible to scalp successfully as well as get into longer term trades.

Now - we know that MT4 volume indication is far from ideal - some may say it is total rubbish - but it may be good enough to provide an edge. It remains important to me to apply stuff with as little lag as possible. I do not want to enter trades when a possible move is 80% done. I wanna get in as early as possible, but with a positive expectancy.

Here is some of the reasoning as to why Volume of MA will be applied:

A Simple Moving Average ( say 200) - computes the average price over the set amount of bars - giving equal importance to all, even the Price of 200 periods ago. Weighted MA will give more importance to the latter price, as opposed to the earlier price - in theory giving " faster" change, or then a movement closer to the current PA.

Adding volume to this, the MA will rather attempt to follow average volume coupled with PA. Nutshell. Within this, I can then apply Triangular Moving Average crosses to find possible legs / waves or cycles. One can also scalp excessive moves away from the Volume WMA as a risky setup ( within the bigger framework) to benefit in both directions.

It all sounds "wow" - but it is actually a very basic strategy.

I will post the indicators and template soon, as well as some charts.

Regards

Herewith the template and indicators I am using.

The chart should look like this, when all is installed correctly.

Good day to you,

Rather than trying to explain all the variations that can be traded, based on your risk apatite, I will rather post some trades, as I take them, and explain the reasons why, as well as what I am looking for/at when attempting the various trades. Important to leave the zoom as per the template - do not get in too close.

You can in the interim look and follow the charts and see if you can spot repetative indications that may result in a positive result.

All the best

Regards

I´m following here

Greetings from Germany,
Dietmar, DL4HAO

Will be following as always!

I will be following as well. Looking forward to it!

I'm following as well :nerd:

Good day to you all,

I have thought long and hard as to how to explain myself better in terms of how I trade this. It remains a challenge.

First up, I made a mistake when I posted the template on one of the settings. Please change to the attached template

More to follow.

Regards

Good day to you,

The attached chart gives you the basic idea. I look at the chart to find areas of weakness and areas of strenght. These are general areas. This I determine by the green line ( volume WMA) in the bottom indicator. When it shows itself, I will only look at buying dips, if it is hidden, I will only look at selling tops. Where are these bottoms and tops?

That is for you to decide, by applying your own trading style. You may use trendlines, channels, fibs, HL, HH, LH, LL. That is up to you. If you are looking for exact, spesific entry and exit points provided - this you will not get here.

This, in a nutshell, is my edge. It feels weird at first, but you do get used to it.

More later.

Good day to you,

The attached chart on EJ shows you one of the basic ways to look for opportunity. The Volume WMA's fan out - coupled with the trend indi direction and a break through SR levels.

See if you can make it work for you.

Regards

Good day to you,

Attached the last couple of days results. There are 25 trades. 24 winners / Break evens and a 4 pip loss. Total + 518. Using various ways to gain from the areas of positive expectancy, as described above.

Thus only taking an average of 20 or so pips per entry. In and out. Even a 5 pip scalp works for me.

Obviously, this rate can not continue day in and day out. But if patient, one could come out ahead.

Regards

Nice job Tau! Before you explained this, I thought it looked like peaks and valleys. Nice to know I was in the ballpark.

Do you just trade levels when you get the trigger or do you look at pa itself for an entrance.

Also, do you stick to one timeframe or do you look at higher ones?

Good day to you, C

I would look at the first trigger indication - then see where we are - look at what SR levels are close by ( above and below) and trade off these. PA itself is still there for me to be studied and fully understood...

( That's why i'm still busy with the indi's)...

Edit: Sorry - I also look at higher timeframes from time to time to keep me in the most probable direction.

Regards

Gotcha! I am only a master of about 6 candle patterns myself! So I feel that levels are the most important. I also realize that pa can fail, trust me-I know. lol

I like simple and will watch for your charts. Thanks for the explanation.

Good day to you,

Here is an EJ trade taken a bit earlier..

First Chart. Selling into strength as the indicators are in agreement. Price moved back up to the SR level sitting @ 111.50 ( Friday low). Probability of a continuation lower - should this level hold.

Second chart - result.

Regards

Here is a GU trade just taken.

Chart 1 - Same scenario - selling into strength on the last move up. Indicators assist. All aligned. Expected the SR level of 1.5048 ( Low of last week) to have held - but price broke and reversed only @ 1.5079 area - ( weekly open). I bit of a stretch...

Chart 2 - result.

Regards

Herewith today's trades. The line indicates where today's entries started. A few small scalps in there. 9 trades taken. 9 winners. + 160 pips.

I will be in meetings most of tomorrow, so will not be around.

Regards and trade well

Good day to you,

Took this entry before going to bed - market was slow.

Chart 1 shows that Price were at a confluence of Trendline as well as at the lower level of the daily channel, by lows ( 1.0602). Volume Wma and Trend in place.

Chart 2 - result.

Closed now for +31 pips on the 2 positions opened.

Regards

Good day to you,

Just took this EU trade. Chart 1 shows the pullback to the SR cluster. Chart 2 - result.

Closed 2 shorts for + 47 total.

I will be out now for the rest of the day.

Trade well

Regards