Makes me think...
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 3,927 Posts
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 3,927 Posts
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies
Intergrated MM with System Accuracy and Risk Control 2 replies
Accuracy vs. net profit 10 replies
historical data accuracy puzzlement. 1 reply
accuracy problems or stable market 0 replies
DislikedIt sounds like you are trading with no stoploss.
Run through your stats. For every winning trade, what is the highest floating loss?Ignored
DislikedWhat is ForEx? Chaos this is what it is. So is there any chance to predict how it will behave in the future and take advantage of it? Apparently no.
In theory however even in chaos you can find something that happens all the time. Something that always repeats itself.
Here I will prove that there is one interesting thing that always happens in this market.Ignored
DislikedI played bit with your excel data, found out the following.
> Enter a trade only if the breakout gets to 100 pip far from resistance/support. This means that yout TP is 100pip
>set SL 400 pip
With a 3pip spread this setup ends up to 8557pip profit:
-> wining trades:163 resulting in 15811pip profit
-> losing trades: 18 resulting in 7254 pip loss
The only factor that can be crucial is the number of consecutive loosing trades however I am not sure if your ranking is based on time. If yes then you have the first 17 trades all loosing ones!
That...Ignored
DislikedThe very definition of chaos is "a state lacking order or predictability". If you have found something that always repeats itself, then you have proven that the market is predictable.
Think on that for awhile.Ignored
DislikedI thought about it for a longer while. As far as I know the general chaos theory states that even "a state lacking order or predictability" potentially can be put in to mathematical formula, thus predicted. Which means that chaos is not really chaos.
I've found in a few places a statement that Forex chart is an example of perfect chaos, this is why I used it.
Anyways I didn't mean to create this thread to discuss words which definitions are contradictory to themselves, so please lets focus on breakouts and returns.Ignored
DislikedYou put the horizontal line on the chart after the fact, not before. Therefore, you really don't know where the true top and bottom is until after it happens.Ignored
DislikedI'll code your suggestion and test it as soon as get my laptop back. Thanks for another idea of how to use what we know.Ignored
DislikedHere is another pattern in the data that can generate huge profit.
Anytime an order is trigred keep adding new orders on an 8 pip basis. In other word,
1st order: 8pip target
if TP not hit then add a second order at the level of 16pip TP
If 2nd TP not hit, add a third one at TP level of 24pip
.
.
.until you achieve a TP order of 300 pip (at this level, you will have 37 open orders where the first one has a TP of 8pip and last one with TP of 300)
The SL is alwyas 300 pip.Ignored
DislikedBased on the data, you will have 29 loosing order that will result in 332,808pip loss= (29 order* (300SL+3 spread)*37.87 opened order)
And a total of 1,625,555 pip gain. The net profit is 1,292,747 pip.
Way2freedomIgnored
Disliked//------
my true interest here was in you comment number 3,
3. But we know it will return to the breakout level.
it almost stands to reason that can not be true...... backtesting verifies this..... as example, the 2nd and 3rd trades that were made in the first week of 09 never had the price return to the breakout level......
i only coded in the first trade at each signal..... my thoughts were if it did not return any subsequent added trades would not either.....
your choice of trades themselves was also of interest........Ignored
DislikedIf I'm not mistaken this is exactly the way I was thinking. If you go back to my first post you will se that actually you are following the same rules as I pointed out.
The only difference is that you are placing more orders ( every 8 instead of 10 pips, with exception of the first order in my way ) and your SL is 300pips.
I'm not sure if I follow your calculations correctly. By 29 orders do you mean TRADES that I defined (event of placing series of pending orders) or does it reflect smaller orders that were placed as a grid? If it is the...Ignored
Dislikedhey casper ...... we're on the road today....... will post it this evening when we get back to motel room..... it's on my computer running there.....
ran some backtests from 1/1/09 on the 5 minute eurusd..... can verify your 97% rate..... as you have found out, high win rates are not equal to profitability in all cases.....
97% and higher win rates are easy to achieve.... the remaining 3% tends to whack us pretty good......
//------
my true interest here was in you comment number 3,
[i]3. But we know it will return to the breakout...Ignored