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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,281
  • Jul 9, 2010 11:25am Jul 9, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Custos
haha, don't worry, you also will get into a good trade

When I say break, I mean a clear cut break, one where price really closes obviously on the other side and tries to retest later.
As a newbie, I like what I have learnt from you and the No Brainer Trades thread. Playing bounces and reversing ones position on breakouts & retests seems like a very successful method, and "should" be used jointly. From my observations it "appears" that upon a breakout a retest almost always takes place allowing for a very small loss or BE trade. This fact alone makes this a very appealing method to me. If the retest does not take place one can exit the trade manually for a smaller loss or let your stop be hit and accept it as part of the business. However, what I am still trying to figure out is what timeframe candle needs to close on the other side in order to solidify the move? Is 30min enough or is a 1hr candle minimum?

To further increase my confidence, I prefer it when a Fib, RN and trendline confirms the entry. My goal, although it may be unrealistic is to make/target beween 12-15% per week while focusing on 1:3 R/R trades as much as possible. I may be in dreamland for now but one thing is certain... I will eat breath and sleep Forex until & after I make it into the 5% successful traders club. I have a goal to be able to trade fulltime within 1-2 years. I refuse to give up

To further compliment my learning I am also interested in learning about patterns such as H&S's, crab etc. Fortunately (thanks Custos), early on in my forex endeavors I have already learned that the key to this game is S/R...nothing else comes close imo. S/R is the foundation.
  • #7,282
  • Jul 9, 2010 12:10pm Jul 9, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting CharlesSA
However, what I am still trying to figure out is what timeframe candle needs to close on the other side in order to solidify the move? Is 30min enough or is a 1hr candle minimum?
well, I like h1, I guess it's personal preference.

Quoting CharlesSA
To further increase my confidence, I prefer it when a Fib, RN and trendline confirms the entry. My goal, although it may be unrealistic is to make/target beween 12-15% per week while focusing on 1:3 R/R trades as much as possible. I may be in dreamland for now but one thing is certain... I will eat breath and sleep Forex until & after I make it into the 5% successful traders club. I have a goal to be able to trade fulltime within 1-2 years. I refuse to give up
good plan of attack. Well, maybe 1 - 2 years is a bit too tight of a schedule, but if you stick to it you definitely will make it.

Quoting CharlesSA
To further compliment my learning I am also interested in learning about patterns such as H&S's, crab etc. Fortunately (thanks Custos), early on in my forex endeavors I have already learned that the key to this game is S/R...nothing else comes close imo. S/R is the foundation.
yeah, patterns are also good, when used in conjunction with S/R levels. Essentially brv's quasimodo pattern is an h&s pattern, only that you enter at the top of the right shoulder.

cheers
  • #7,283
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:14pm Jul 9, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Custos
well, I like h1, I guess it's personal preference.


good plan of attack. Well, maybe 1 - 2 years is a bit too tight of a schedule, but if you stick to it you definitely will make it.


yeah, patterns are also good, when used in conjunction with S/R levels. Essentially brv's quasimodo pattern is an h&s pattern, only that you enter at the top of the right shoulder.

cheers
to add what custos said, make sure to learn how patterns fail. i dont use patterns now but am still aware of them. sometimes a failure can give you a heads up that a pivot is about to break.
  • #7,284
  • Edited 8:45pm Jul 11, 2010 7:25pm | Edited 8:45pm
Price is consolidating sidways on H4 at a very strong level, i.e monthly support, weekly & daily piot. Overall daly trend is down at the current price is currently touching the downward sloping trendline.

If this breaks down and retest from below then it could result in a large move. However if it decides to continue in the upward direction (after retesting) then it should be worth a few hundered pips.

And talking about entring on the retest:

Custos, since retests have lesser likelyhood of failing therefore the strategy of having a tighter SL would not be a bad idea and should a retest fail then its better to be out quick . However, with respect to using a larger % of account at the restest I am thinking that since retest tend to fail as well therefore how about adding to the position on next pull back to S/R level. This might be a bit more conservative way of using a larger % of account on the same trade because the next pull be will serve as a added confirmation.

Now if the level being tested is quite strong i.e. multiple touchs (and also coming from a higher TF) along with RN & Fib then i think using a large portion of the account could be justified (though using the same risk %). When following this strategy I would definitely keep statistical data of % win to keep tabs on the continuing effective of this strategy over time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUUSD.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #7,285
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:24am Jul 12, 2010 1:24am
Quoting MktScape
Price is consolidating sidways on H4 at a very strong level, i.e monthly support, weekly & daily piot. Overall daly trend is down at the current price is currently touching the downward sloping trendline.

If this breaks down and retest from below then it could result in a large move. However if it decides to continue in the upward direction (after retesting) then it should be worth a few hundered pips.
hm, not sure what you mean by consolidating sideways. If I look at my h4, I just see a bounce from the trendline, not really consolidating yet. Well, on my chart eur/usd is already 100 pips away from the trendline, not sure if that still counts as touching a trendline.
hm, you got that line from the weekly pivot, but besides that pivot, how did you come to that S/R level? I have one around 1.267 and one at 1.248. You should look at price action from february 2009. Your level doesn't match that PA. Thus in my opinion, the S/R level you have drawn is not that strong.

Anyways, just my opinion. Your view can work out of course, just hinting what I am thinking.

Quoting MktScape
And talking about entring on the retest:

Custos, since retests have lesser likelyhood of failing therefore the strategy of having a tighter SL would not be a bad idea and should a retest fail then its better to be out quick . However, with respect to using a larger % of account at the restest I am thinking that since retest tend to fail as well therefore how about adding to the position on next pull back to S/R level. This might be a bit more conservative way of using a larger % of account on the same trade because the next pull be will serve...
you didn't read the brv thread, did you?
The more often price hits a level, the less orders are sitting there. So waiting for added confirmation would be fatal in the longterm, since it's less likely that the level will hold a second, third or fourth time.

Quoting MktScape
Now if the level being tested is quite strong i.e. multiple touchs (and also coming from a higher TF) along with RN & Fib then i think using a large portion of the account could be justified (though using the same risk %). When following this strategy I would definitely keep statistical data of % win to keep tabs on the continuing effective of this strategy over time.
well, I never said a large portion of the account, I just was thinking of increasing lot-size "a little bit".
But not sure where you draw the line between a portion of the account and risk %. Cause I always thought that lot-size is determined by % account * risk, thus it should be the same, or not?

cheers
  • #7,286
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:42am Jul 12, 2010 8:42am
hello all, I put here a possible configuration in EURGBP 1D, which they believe happened.

Saludos.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp bajista.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #7,287
  • Jul 12, 2010 10:42am Jul 12, 2010 10:42am
Quoting Custos
you didn't read the brv thread, did you?
The more often price hits a level, the less orders are sitting there. So waiting for added confirmation would be fatal in the longterm, since it's less likely that the level will hold a second, third or fourth time...


cheers
To some extent, yes. If he is zooming in on his entry, playing the 2nd test can be quite good to get in on accumulation stop-runs. I stopped doing it on forex as there is no accurate volume and tough to read sometimes, but continuously do it on futures.
  • #7,288
  • Jul 12, 2010 11:14am Jul 12, 2010 11:14am
sorry guys ....i have been bombarded with work and workshops .......

cant even think of trading right now. Will be in touch.
  • #7,289
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:39am Jul 13, 2010 5:39am
okay, let's jumpstart the thread a bit. Attached is eur/gbp, short entry. went through a support level and now retesting from below.

By the way, what do you guys think of Sam Seiden's concept of demand and supply zones? It's also quite intriguing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 13.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,290
  • Jul 13, 2010 6:43am Jul 13, 2010 6:43am
Quoting Custos
okay, let's jumpstart the thread a bit. Attached is eur/gbp, short entry. went through a support level and now retesting from below.

By the way, what do you guys think of Sam Seiden's concept of demand and supply zones? It's also quite intriguing.
I totally recommend wayching Seidens stuff.

His way of explaining supply/demand is just great

Hes solid.

pip
  • #7,291
  • Jul 13, 2010 6:48am Jul 13, 2010 6:48am
Quoting Custos
okay, let's jumpstart the thread a bit. Attached is eur/gbp, short entry. went through a support level and now retesting from below.

By the way, what do you guys think of Sam Seiden's concept of demand and supply zones? It's also quite intriguing.
Also took that trade. The level is also very close to the 38.2% fibb (which is less important, but still. ) I know my chart looks a bit busy still but atleast I know what is going on My initial target TP on this one is 0.82824. Does that sound realistic to you?

Will still read Sam's work...so cannot comment just yet. What is the jist of this concept Custos?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.jpg Size: 179 KB
  • #7,292
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:27am Jul 13, 2010 7:27am
Quoting CharlesSA
Also took that trade. The level is also very close to the 38.2% fibb (which is less important, but still. ) I know my chart looks a bit busy still but atleast I know what is going on My initial target TP on this one is 0.82824. Does that sound realistic to you?

Will still read Sam's work...so cannot comment just yet. What is the jist of this concept Custos?

hehe, looks like a "saxon" chart setup. As long as you still can get your head around S/R levels your chart looks just fine. I would say the 0.8295 is a bit a better level. Cause that better incorporates recent PA.

the jist of the concept is basically: mass and energy as he explained it in one paper. You wanna see a huge bar moving away from a level. That is then a good level to get the same reaction from in the future, if price ever comes back there. Pretty interesting stuff. I was looking through the charts and it very often holds true. (hope I said that right, was also just reading his material yesterday, so not an expert in his stuff)
  • #7,293
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:28am Jul 13, 2010 7:28am
Another short. usd/jpy h1 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy h1 13.7.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,294
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:48am Jul 13, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Custos
hehe, looks like a "saxon" chart setup. As long as you still can get your head around S/R levels your chart looks just fine. I would say the 0.8295 is a bit a better level. Cause that better incorporates recent PA.

the jist of the concept is basically: mass and energy as he explained it in one paper. You wanna see a huge bar moving away from a level. That is then a good level to get the same reaction from in the future, if price ever comes back there. Pretty interesting stuff. I was looking through the charts and it very often holds true. (hope...

hehe...yeah, does look similar.

I am having second thoughts on this trade (EURGBP). EUR strength is gaining momentum. Look at EUR/USD.
  • #7,295
  • Edited 9:35am Jul 13, 2010 9:25am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting Custos
okay, let's jumpstart the thread a bit. Attached is eur/gbp, short entry. went through a support level and now retesting from below.

By the way, what do you guys think of Sam Seiden's concept of demand and supply zones? It's also quite intriguing.
Hey Custos,
I havent read about Sam Seiden's concept .... but he does appear to be very experience trader and is a regular contributor on Fx Street.

Would you mention the key points of his concept?


Did a search and the following link of his video popped up:
http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

Ciao
  • #7,296
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:44am Jul 13, 2010 9:44am
Quoting MktScape
Hey Custos,
I havent read about Sam Seiden's concept .... but he does appear to be very experience trader and is a regular contributor on Fx Street.

Would you mention the key points of his concept?


Did a search and the following link of his video popped up:
http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

Ciao
Just did a search as well. Here is some more resources which I too will work through:

1. http://www.samseiden.com/resources_1.html
2. http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Arti...-Articles.html
3. http://www.informedtrades.com/506258...am-seiden.html
  • #7,297
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:58am Jul 13, 2010 9:58am
Quoting CharlesSA
Just did a search as well. Here is some more resources which I too will work through:

1. http://www.samseiden.com/resources_1.html
2. http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Arti...-Articles.html
3. http://www.informedtrades.com/506258...am-seiden.html
Great.

I am reading this article ... very interesting.
http://www.samseiden.com/Sam_Seiden_...ember_2003.pdf
  • #7,298
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:54am Jul 13, 2010 10:54am
Quoting MktScape
Hey Custos,
I havent read about Sam Seiden's concept .... but he does appear to be very experience trader and is a regular contributor on Fx Street.

Would you mention the key points of his concept?


Did a search and the following link of his video popped up:
http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

Ciao
yeah the key concept is: price remains shortly at a demand/supply zone and then shoots off in one direction, if south then it's a supply zone if north it is a demand zone. Expectation is that this area where price has been before is now noticed by the experts and a lot of orders get stacked there, so if price retests that level, the professionals get in and cause another move from that area.

attached is an example (at least I believe it is an example) Please, anybody with more experience with seiden's material correct me if I am wrong. the orange marked bar is a huge momentum bar. Thus the area from which price broke out (red zone) is now our demand zone. And we wait for price to come back down again to again shoot off north, which happened in this case.

For me demand / supply zones can be the same as S/R levels but don't have to be. I think if they match up it is a deadly combination. (deadly meaning high probability)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy h1 13.7.2010.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #7,299
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:01am Jul 13, 2010 11:01am
eur/gbp supply zone matching up with a good S/R level. Possible short?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 13.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,300
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:48am Jul 13, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Custos
eur/gbp supply zone matching up with a good S/R level. Possible short?
the momentum against that pivot isnt too favorable, as well as possible reward
if it does react, going to see possibilities for a long from .8341
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