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  • #13,001
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:02am Jul 12, 2010 7:02am
I agree with you hcristea that the price is an important S/R level and it could be a good oportunity to long this pair.In my opinion we have 2 choises: 1-at the end of today if we have good PA,to go long,but with more % risk(agressive way), 2-to wait till the end of week(1.61?) in order to see boss's orders and if agrees with worker to enter to a daily's retracement,lower % risk(conservative way).Depends of every trader's style.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #13,002
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:33am Jul 12, 2010 7:33am
I don't do this pair but let's first overcome this trendline and we'll see what will happen by the end of the day.
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  • #13,003
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:14am Jul 12, 2010 8:14am
Quoting hcristea
Hi Patrick,
what is your total risk on these 3 positions? Is it always 100 pips TP on one of the positions or you consider ATR?

I know that this is a method recommended by Strat but I wasnt a fan of it. I'm trading spot gold and there 100 pips is like 10 pips or less on EURUSD and it would be like scalping. The risk for the 1st position would be way too much much compared with the 100 pips TP on Gold (10:1 in average). I want to test this method but I'm thinking to consider ATR to set TP level for my first position, at least on spot gold.
My risk % is 1-2% and divide it by 3 positions. Once I get first position close, I try to be in the trade as long as I can at breakeven. This will keep you from over trading and the little man in control.
  • #13,004
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:19am Jul 12, 2010 8:19am
Quoting patrick25
My risk % is 1-2% and divide it by 3 positions. Once I get first position close, I try to be in the trade as long as I can at breakeven. This will keep you from over trading and the little man in control.
You mean you enter with 3 lots right?
  • #13,005
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:26pm Jul 12, 2010 3:26pm
Last month closed as a hammer.weekly up and rejecte by the S/R level of the last swing high.Daily up,retreaces till 50 fibb(weekly) and put a hammer,that find S at 20+50.Daily broke TL and retest it making confluence.If today closes as hammer,for me is a good oportunity to buy.Thanks.
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My humble opinion.
  • #13,006
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:39pm Jul 12, 2010 3:39pm
Hello,

USDJPY: Worker: a bearish candle is forming today (pinbar, price trapped between MA20 & 10). As BB and B are bearish, this could mean that the main trend (down) is resuming.
Problem however (imo) is that support lies at 87, which gives us a poor R:R ratio
Am I right?

USDCHF: Same story, with a support at 1.05

Question: when such price patterns are developing (I mean, the pinbar in the direction of the main trend (hammer if the main trend is up, and inverted hammer if the main trend is down)), should one considering taking the trade if a support / a resistance is as close as supports lie in the examples given above?

Thanks in advance for your comments, and thanks again to Strat for the excellent job done.

P.
  • #13,007
  • Jul 12, 2010 9:38pm Jul 12, 2010 9:38pm

Quote
2. Trendline
In your trend line drawing method, I remember the most important point is connect the (confirmed) swing low/high bar's open/close (not high/low). But why the chart seems to connect the high/lows? Could you explain a little more? So I can understand it better. (Acturally I typically draw this kind of trendline -- connecting bar highs/lows in my previous experience).


[/quote]
Quoting strat
Your questions are typical of one who has 'flash read' the thread. ALL the answers to your questions are there but you MUST read and UNDERSTAND each and every post.

There is no race in trading - the markets will ALWAYS be there so TAKE YOUR TIME and study carefully by reading and UNDERSTANDING each and every post.
Hi, Strat:

I asked the above question about 1 and a half weeks ago. You asked me to calm down and don't 'flash read'. After these days' reading the thread, I got my bulb light on. I got the hint from the recent post answering the difference between "trendline and DSRI". So I google it and using FF search to find the related information. Actually, my confusion is combining the TL and DSRI without understand their usage.

Here are my understanding:

1. Trendline: connect Higher high/lower low (classical method. but some unrational price action, such as MM stop run will make it distort)
2. DSRI: promoted by Strat and Blackeagle. Google cannot provide much related inforamtion. It connects the confirmed swing open/close points. Since it connects the close price, so the MM stop run or other price spike will not impact the DSRI too much.
3. If we identify patterns, we should use trendline (this is not exact science and sometime we will omit some price spike even we use T/R). If we want to follow Strat's PA+, we need to consider DSRI when draw S/R (this area I will further read in the following weeks).

Here are some useful links about this:
1. DSRI disccusion from: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55459&page=314
This includes Strat and BlackEagle's chart examples and a joked version of DSRI indicator.
2. Coscorp's comment in Jacko's thread when I do search the FF: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9773

Thanks again, Strat. Although I confused serveral days, I understand it now and I think I will never forget this point.

Regards,
Yang
  • #13,008
  • Jul 13, 2010 2:14am Jul 13, 2010 2:14am
London big boys wanted and managed to move the price up but the NY guys were not interested yet. Looks like the stops on lower TFs were taken out. Should be expect a big move soon?
  • #13,009
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:10am Jul 13, 2010 3:10am
Quoting hcristea
Hello Strat!

GBPCHF is at support. Since january 2009 the pair is in a triangle. As we go down on lover TFs the Weekly and especially Daily is in a range so trading the Worker on this pair is from one side of the range to another. Immediate sentiment is important and it is like this:

Big Boss: bearish - given by the BEEB from june.

Boss: bearish - 3 bearish weeks in june and one bullish but so weak it couldnt close above 20. Last week also bearish.

Worker - bearish - with 4 red candles and an inverted hammer as the price...
For a trend change we need to see a Boss new high above 1.7000 followed by a HL.

"If" support holds we should be able to get something out of the next Worker swing up but only if there are strong bullish bars showing the buyers mean business
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,010
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:13am Jul 13, 2010 3:13am
Quoting igmal
Last month closed as a hammer.weekly up and rejecte by the S/R level of the last swing high.Daily up,retreaces till 50 fibb(weekly) and put a hammer,that find S at 20+50.Daily broke TL and retest it making confluence.If today closes as hammer,for me is a good oportunity to buy.Thanks.
Not a hammer on my Worker but still showing bullish signs - keep watching.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,011
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:17am Jul 13, 2010 3:17am
Quoting Pitch30
Hello,

USDJPY: Worker: a bearish candle is forming today (pinbar, price trapped between MA20 & 10). As BB and B are bearish, this could mean that the main trend (down) is resuming.
Problem however (imo) is that support lies at 87, which gives us a poor R:R ratio
Am I right?

USDCHF: Same story, with a support at 1.05

Question: when such price patterns are developing (I mean, the pinbar in the direction of the main trend (hammer if the main trend is up, and inverted hammer if the main trend is down)), should one considering taking the trade...
Pity you didn't UNDERSTAND that there are NO PIN BARS on this thread.

Pin bars are for muppets, puppets and stitch and bitch classes
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,012
  • Jul 13, 2010 3:23am Jul 13, 2010 3:23am
Quoting hcristea
London big boys wanted and managed to move the price up but the NY guys were not interested yet. Looks like the stops on lower TFs were taken out. Should be expect a big move soon?
For this to move up, we need GBPUSD and USDCHF to be at support for moves up. When this happens, you will see GBPCHF moving up faster.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,013
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:35pm Jul 13, 2010 4:35pm
Mothly-up,but in the range of beeb.Weekly-double bottom at 0.70(50 fibb),up and now between 20 and 50,at the TL R level.Daily- up trend making HH,HL finds R at0.7415 and then rejected by 20 turns again at the confluence(R+TL).I will wait to see if brokes and retest the TL,if not some PA at 0.7564(important S/R level and the last swing high on weekly).Thanks.
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My humble opinion.
  • #13,014
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:42pm Jul 13, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting strat
Pity you didn't UNDERSTAND that there are NO PIN BARS on this thread.

Pin bars are for muppets, puppets and stitch and bitch classes
OK Strat, thank you for replying to my post anyway.
No pin bars on this thread. I'll bear that in mind.
I understand that only hammers, shooting stars, BEEB, BEOB, BUEB, BUOB have to be considered here.
I read the thread again...
Thank you
P.
  • #13,015
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:35am Jul 14, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Pitch30
OK Strat, thank you for replying to my post anyway.
No pin bars on this thread. I'll bear that in mind.
I understand that only hammers, shooting stars, BEEB, BEOB, BUEB, BUOB have to be considered here.
I read the thread again...
Thank you
P.
I don't fully understand your question - can you re-phrase it and post a chart as an example?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,016
  • Jul 14, 2010 1:53pm Jul 14, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting strat
I don't fully understand your question - can you re-phrase it and post a chart as an example?
OK, I try to attach 2 charts (USDCHF & USDJPY workers) but I'm not sure it works.

USDCHF
So, I noticed that the candle of July 12th end of day was like a shooting star (but not exactly a shooting star, reason for which I called it "pinbar"), with a long shadow showing that the upmove of the last 2 days would potentially stop and that the primary trend (BB and B bearish) could resume, so that the shooting star high would be a LH.

Let's assume for the purpose of the learning, that this candle was a perfect shooting star.
My question was, given the fact that the support is so close (1.05), would you trigger a sell order at the close of the day (1.0604 on my platform), with a stop above the high of the shooting star (1.0680), or should we wait for a break of the support before triggering a sell?

Same question for USDJPY (please let's assume for a learning purpose that July 12th candle was a real shooting star as well...) In this case: S is at 87, close of July 12th at 88.62 and stop at 89.20

Writing this post, I admit that the gremlins (my greed in this case) have possibly showed me a possible trade were no one was present...

Thanks in advance for your answer.

P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF Worker.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY worker.png Size: 17 KB
  • #13,017
  • Jul 14, 2010 5:38pm Jul 14, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting Pitch30
OK, I try to attach 2 charts (USDCHF & USDJPY workers) but I'm not sure it works.

USDCHF
So, I noticed that the candle of July 12th end of day was like a shooting star (but not exactly a shooting star, reason for which I called it "pinbar"), with a long shadow showing that the upmove of the last 2 days would potentially stop and that the primary trend (BB and B bearish) could resume, so that the shooting star high would be a LH.

Let's assume for the purpose of the learning, that this candle was a perfect shooting star.
My question was, given...
USDCHF
So, I noticed that the candle of July 12th end of day was like a shooting star (but not exactly a shooting star, reason for which I called it "pinbar"),

Had you read and UNDERSTOOD the thread, you would know I call these ‘Bond’ bars.

with a long shadow showing that the upmove of the last 2 days would potentially stop and that the primary trend (BB and B bearish) could resume, so that the shooting star high would be a LH.

You have to be careful with such bars. They have to be at the end of a trend to be reversal bars. This one was not and was reacting to minor Worker resistance which because of reluctance by buyers to continue buying, stalled and price fell back down. It was not sellers selling.

Let's assume for the purpose of the learning, that this candle was a perfect shooting star.
My question was, given the fact that the support is so close (1.05), would you trigger a sell order at the close of the day (1.0604 on my platform), with a stop above the high of the shooting star (1.0680), or should we wait for a break of the support before triggering a sell?

We NEVER sell into support or buy into resistance – the risk and stress is too great – we WAIT for PASR

Same question for USDJPY (please let's assume for a learning purpose that July 12th candle was a real shooting star as well...) In this case: S is at 87, close of July 12th at 88.62 and stop at 89.20

Same answer. Trading these type of set ups would not be stress free trading. There are other threads that trade these type of set ups especially on smaller time frames but again the risk and stress far outweighs the reward.

Writing this post, I admit that the gremlins (my greed in this case) have possibly showed me a possible trade were no one was present...

More important than this, I would suggest you have not UNDERSTOOD the thread. My best advice is to go back into it and SLOWLY read and UNDERSTAND each post.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,018
  • Edited 12:23am Jul 15, 2010 12:15am | Edited 12:23am
You have to be careful with such bars. They have to be at the end of a trend to be reversal bars. This one was not and was reacting to minor Worker resistance which because of reluctance by buyers to continue buying, stalled and price fell back down. It was not sellers selling.

Hi Strat,

One of your recent posts had me convinced that I had got it...
Please see attached your chart from that post.

How is this shooting star different from the one below the 3rd arrow on your chart? I did not take this trade because the support was too close but otherwise would have. (USDCHF candle on 12th July)

How can we tell prices are falling due to buying resistance and not selling pressure?

Cheers,
R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Strat 12830 USDJPY.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #13,019
  • Jul 15, 2010 2:06am Jul 15, 2010 2:06am
Quoting Raje$h
You have to be careful with such bars. They have to be at the end of a trend to be reversal bars. This one was not and was reacting to minor Worker resistance which because of reluctance by buyers to continue buying, stalled and price fell back down. It was not sellers selling.

Hi Strat,

One of your recent posts had me convinced that I had got it...
Please see attached your chart from that post.

How is this shooting star different from the one below the 3rd arrow on your chart? I did not take this trade because the...
How is this shooting star different from the one below the 3rd arrow on your chart? I did not take this trade because the support was too close but otherwise would have. (USDCHF candle on 12th July)

The shooting star on the 3rd arrow on USDJPY was a perfect price reversal bar at resistance with a potential to go 280 pips to major support.

The bars shown on Pitch 30 charts were not perfect candles at PASR and only had 40 or so pips on USDCHF and 80 or so pips on USDJPY to major support which was just not worth the risk or the stress.

As your risk increases, your probability of success diminishes and I, for one, do not like those odds.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #13,020
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:26am Jul 15, 2010 3:26am
Thanks Strat for clarifying when to pay attention to shooting stars at the end of a trend reversal? Having used these for a number of loosing years I have found the error of my ways, these and all the rest of these are meaningless without PASR and the patience to wait and let the buyers and sellers show you the way.
Begining to see the light!
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