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  • #7,261
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:44am Jul 9, 2010 2:44am
Quoting CharlesSA
This EUR has me annoyed! Why on earth is it so stubborn?

This morning it touched the weekly R1 pivot line and made a reverse, albeit a small one. Custos, what do you think... because it has a few candle closes above the major trend line would you consider going long on the retest of UTL? Would love to know your thoughts on this pair as it sure likes breaking our rules
not sure what you talk about, on my chart the candles are still below the trendline. eur/usd is still short-biased
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd d1 9.7.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,262
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:52am Jul 9, 2010 2:52am
Quoting Custos
not sure what you talk about, on my chart the candles are still below the trendline. eur/usd is still short-biased
I see. I adjusted my TL and now only have a single hourly bar that closed above it. On all higher timeframes the candles closed below.

Being short biased, where would you place an intraday TP level? Around 1.26465?
  • #7,263
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:55am Jul 9, 2010 2:55am
Quoting CharlesSA
I see. I adjusted my TL and now only have a single hourly bar that closed above it. On all higher timeframes the candles closed below.

Being short biased, where would you place an intraday TP level? Around 1.26465?
I would take first profit at 1.2480 and let the rest run until stopped out, cause that is a long-term trade.
  • #7,264
  • Jul 9, 2010 3:00am Jul 9, 2010 3:00am
Quoting Custos
I would take first profit at 1.2480 and let the rest run until stopped out, cause that is a long-term trade.
Wow, ok. I need to adjust my micro view and learn to see the bigger picture.

Thanks Custos.
  • #7,265
  • Jul 9, 2010 4:10am Jul 9, 2010 4:10am
Quoting CharlesSA
Wow, some great posts with very valuable info. Thanks!

Well, here are two trades that I hope will work out.

First is EUR/GBP, short at black line which seems to be a good S/R level.

Second, long USD/JPY at black S/R level. On the hourly and 4 hourly chart the price closed above the level. Also seems like a good level to fade.

What do you guys think?

Nice post CharlesSA, please can you help me with those pivot indicator on your chart....

Thanks
  • #7,266
  • Jul 9, 2010 4:17am Jul 9, 2010 4:17am
Quoting mayorowo
Nice post CharlesSA, please can you help me with those pivot indicator on your chart....

Thanks

Sure...indicator attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 AutoPivotIndicator.ex4   15 KB | 408 downloads
File Type: mq4 AutoPivotIndicator.mq4   15 KB | 456 downloads
  • #7,267
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:52am Jul 9, 2010 5:52am
gbp/chf would have been nice for a short, sorry for an after the fact trade, but I think it has educational value nonetheless. This is a trend trade, with a good S/R level and trend line coming into one place.

Secondly, eur/usd h1 chart. If you wanna hop on, now is the time in my opinion. The black line is weekly resistance but completely aligns with h1 resistance as well. flipped back downward and retested from below. I believe that this could be a good entry. Again, this is a long-term trade. So give it some room.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf h1 9.7.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 9.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,268
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:58am Jul 9, 2010 5:58am
New discussion topic:
oh by the way, you guys can also start discussion topics, not only always me.

So what I was thinking about is: we got a level. Now we got two scenarios what price can or should do at that level, either bounce off of it or break and retest (flip).
My question now: is it wiser to just take the break and restest (flip) and forget about the bounce? or is it wiser to just take the bounces and forget about the break and retests (flip), or should we trade both?

hopefully you guys understand what I mean.
And a note to all you background readers: don't just read and never write, you are also allowed to contribute .
  • #7,269
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:15am Jul 9, 2010 7:15am
Quoting Custos
haha, I think you asked that question now 3 times in 3 different ways and I gave you 3 times the same answer.

here it goes again.

to qualify for a good level I want price to retest that level after a breach and not just shoot off.

And defining the price range: I adjust the range until I see most of the time a retest after a breach.

does that answer your question now?

lol ... i was kind of feeling that i might have repeated the question .... but thanks for answering again .
  • #7,270
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:33am Jul 9, 2010 7:33am
Quoting Custos
Secondly, eur/usd h1 chart. If you wanna hop on, now is the time in my opinion. The black line is weekly resistance but completely aligns with h1 resistance as well. flipped back downward and retested from below. I believe that this could be a good entry. Again, this is a long-term trade. So give it some room.
and it was an awesome entry!
  • #7,271
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:38am Jul 9, 2010 7:38am
Quoting Custos
and it was an awesome entry!
A bit late but i am going to hop on board.
  • #7,272
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:48am Jul 9, 2010 7:48am
Quoting Custos
New discussion topic:
oh by the way, you guys can also start discussion topics, not only always me.

So what I was thinking about is: we got a level. Now we got two scenarios what price can or should do at that level, either bounce off of it or break and retest (flip).
My question now: is it wiser to just take the break and restest (flip) and forget about the bounce? or is it wiser to just take the bounces and forget about the break and retests (flip), or should we trade both?

hopefully you guys understand what I mean.
And a note to all...
ok here we go again ....

To determine whether to take the bounce only or break & retest I think we would need win/loss statistics for individual situation. However as we cannot know if price will bounce or break/retest at a particular level therefore in my opinion going for either / or would result in quite many missed trades.

I hope my comments are clear as mud
  • #7,273
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:57am Jul 9, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Custos
New discussion topic:
oh by the way, you guys can also start discussion topics, not only always me.

So what I was thinking about is: we got a level. Now we got two scenarios what price can or should do at that level, either bounce off of it or break and retest (flip).
My question now: is it wiser to just take the break and restest (flip) and forget about the bounce? or is it wiser to just take the bounces and forget about the break and retests (flip), or should we trade both?

hopefully you guys understand what I mean.
And a note to all...
Hi guys,

First of all, congrats to all of you who are taking advantage of the EURUSD "No brainer trade"..... It is a perfect setup in my eyes, with plenty of confluences....
I am unfortunately quite busy with some stuff out of my house and could not even trade for last couple of days.... ARGGGG! (I don't even wanna see that chart because I go mad)

Anyways....
In the new discussion open, I really think that trading only bounces of S/R's, especially if it is in the overall trend direction is good enough.... and the flip moves when closing the wrong side of the S/R level, could be good for getting out at BE or for a minor loss, and waiting after that to another 1H retest of that level again to take the bounce in the breakout direction.....
I've attached a pic to explain me better, because I could have wrote a little messy...lol
I have this opinion based in that S/R's levels more often than not hold price for their own nature as S/R (have bounced price in the past)... so I strongly believe that we can see a lot of fakeouts when price is trying breakouts off those levels...
Another approach that I can see, is to be very aggressive trailing the SL to BE or very tight, as soon as possible, when trading breakouts...

Only my humble opinion on the subject
Attached Image
  • #7,274
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:57am Jul 9, 2010 7:57am
Quoting MktScape
ok here we go again ....

To determine whether to take the bounce only or break & retest I think we would need win/loss statistics for individual situation. However as we cannot know if price will bounce or break/retest at a particular level therefore in my opinion going for either / or would result in quite many missed trades.

I hope my comments are clear as mud
hehe, well, my feeling is (and I didn't do any analysis yet distinguishing these two types) that break & retest situation have a higher win-loss, just because price is unlikely to break back again. If price already broke that level, it became then an area for the pros to put their orders in to make the move continue.
In turn, if this assumption really is true, then it is also logical to put tighter stops on when price breaks and retests, because price is expected to continue. So maybe one can use higher % of account with break and retest trades and a tighter sl as well, whereas for the normal bounce trades one can use lower % of account and wider sl to be able to reverse trade if level gets broken.
Well, and missed trades are not a big concern, the biggest concern is win/loss and/or R:R. If I miss some trades but my win/loss increases, then I can also increase lot-size and push my account equity growth.

god, hope everything here makes sense, comments appreciated.
  • #7,275
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:09am Jul 9, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Bancho
Hi guys,

First of all, congrats to all of you who are taking advantage of the EURUSD "No brainer trade"..... It is a perfect setup in my eyes, with plenty of confluences....
I am unfortunately quite busy with some stuff out of my house and could not even trade for last couple of days.... ARGGGG! (I don't even wanna see that chart because I go mad)
haha, don't worry, you also will get into a good trade

Quoting Bancho
Anyways....
In the new discussion open, I really think that trading only bounces of S/R's, especially if it is in the overall trend direction is good enough.... and the flip moves when closing the wrong side of the S/R level, could be good for getting out at BE or for a minor loss, and waiting after that to another 1H retest of that level again to take the bounce in the breakout direction.....
I've attached a pic to explain me better, because I could have wrote a little messy...lol
I have this opinion based in that S/R's levels more often than not...
hm, also interesting. Yes S/R levels do hold very often, that's why I think trading the bounces is very good by itself. And yes we can see a lot of fake-outs, that's why playing bounces is working quite well.

When I say break, I mean a clear cut break, one where price really closes obviously on the other side and tries to retest later.

You brought up some good points, as I said in my previous post I didn't do any statistics yet, so that's why I like your guys' inputs. Thanks a lot
  • #7,276
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:10am Jul 9, 2010 8:10am
Tricky market conditions at the moment for trend following.
  • #7,277
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:26am Jul 9, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Custos
New discussion topic:
oh by the way, you guys can also start discussion topics, not only always me.

So what I was thinking about is: we got a level. Now we got two scenarios what price can or should do at that level, either bounce off of it or break and retest (flip).
My question now: is it wiser to just take the break and restest (flip) and forget about the bounce? or is it wiser to just take the bounces and forget about the break and retests (flip), or should we trade both?

hopefully you guys understand what I mean.
And a note to all you background...
Sounds very situational depending on momentum. If your statistics greatly favor one aspect, then trade solely that. Otherwise, no reason to not trade both. I know some who do *big* scale-in's with big capital, and others who only play counter-trend flips in hope for the big home run. It is a really broad question and what you want to achieve is a major factor in your decision.
  • #7,278
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:27am Jul 9, 2010 8:27am
Quoting Musashi
Tricky market conditions at the moment for trend following.
well, the long-term trends seem to pick up again, that's why short-term trends are crashing down. like gbp/chf h4, eur/usd & gbp/usd daily charts.
chf/jpy h4, cad/jpy h1, usd/cad h1, gbp/aud h1, aud/usd h1, ... there are still lots of trends going on, just need to turn to the right time-frames.
  • #7,279
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:33am Jul 9, 2010 8:33am
Quoting randomperson
Sounds very situational depending on momentum. If your statistics greatly favor one aspect, then trade solely that. Otherwise, no reason to not trade both. I know some who do *big* scale-in's with big capital, and others who only play counter-trend flips in hope for the big home run. It is a really broad question and what you want to achieve is a major factor in your decision.
thanks for your insight. yeah, still looking into that, really need to do some statistics on that subject.

cheers
  • #7,280
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:45am Jul 9, 2010 8:45am
Quoting CharlesSA
Sure...indicator attached.
Thanks
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