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  • #12,941
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:33pm Jul 8, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting strat
In the words of Dr Joe: “IT KEEPS GOING DOWN UNTIL IT STOPS GOING DOWN”

This applies to trending PRICE

USDCAD is NOT trending
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the response.

Could you please comment on my analysis, apart from the Dr Joe part.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,942
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:54pm Jul 8, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Hi Papa

I have followed and understand your reasoning.

However couldn’t going long, at this stage, be an exercise in trying to pick and trade a “bottom”.

An alternative would be to look at this as an opportunity to sell into an established downtrend, after a rally, when suitable PASR occurs.

In the words of Dr Joe: “IT KEEPS GOING DOWN UNTIL IT STOPS GOING DOWN”

Big Boss: Made a LH in May. Retraced from 50% fib. Both 20 EMA and 50 SMA steeply down.

Boss: Rejected and bounced off the downward TL in July, 50 SMA still steeply down. 20...
Hi Roger!
I am having trouble understanding how you identified the LH on your Big Boss chart.
Since the High and Low of the May candle is still intact, it seems that it shoudn't be identified as a LH at this time.
I appreciate your views, and just want to make sure I understand correctly.

Tom
  • #12,943
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:59pm Jul 8, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting GibsonL6
Hi Roger!
I am having trouble understanding how you identified the LH on your Big Boss chart.
Since the High and Low of the May candle is still intact, it seems that it shoudn't be identified as a LH at this time.
I appreciate your views, and just want to make sure I understand correctly.

Tom
The LH refers to the May candle. The lettering was slightly out of alignment to avoid the TL.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,944
  • Jul 8, 2010 8:25pm Jul 8, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Hi Strat,

Thanks for the response.

Could you please comment on my analysis, apart from the Dr Joe part.
Boss: Rejected and bounced off the downward TL in July, 50 SMA still steeply down. 20 EMA turning down when chart zoomed in.

Also bounced off resistance

Worker: The big BEOB on 6 July signalled a short. I was waiting for proof on the following day, but price closed between the 20 and 50.

This signalled to me to wait for a 3rd day.

Today’s hammer (8 July) has signalled at least short term weakness among sellers, and no PASR for a short, so I will wait again.

The hammer is at SUPPORT and therefore cancels out the July 8 BEOB

Plus the Boss shows a trading range.

On top of all this, all TFs are caught in an ascending triangle meaning that long term resolution will not be known until PRICE breaks out, one way or another, from the triangle. This tells us that all trades are limited to the boundaries of the ascending triangle.

It could still have a long way to go before a bottom.

But how will you know when it is at "a bottom"?

Don't be too rigid in your analysis and get "fixed" on a specific trend - keep an open mind. Remember, there are trends within trends and a trend to one person could be 3 days while to another it could be 3 weeks.

Overall doing good.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,945
  • Jul 8, 2010 8:30pm Jul 8, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting GibsonL6
Hi Roger!
I am having trouble understanding how you identified the LH on your Big Boss chart.
Since the High and Low of the May candle is still intact, it seems that it shoudn't be identified as a LH at this time.
I appreciate your views, and just want to make sure I understand correctly.

Tom
Tom and Jerry (sorry, mean Roger),

It is a PRICE high but NOT a SWING high
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,946
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:00pm Jul 8, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting strat
Tom and Jerry (sorry, mean Roger),

It is a PRICE high but NOT a SWING high
Hi Strat!

Thanks for clearing that up.
LL, LH, HL and HH should only be identified at confirmed swing high's and low's from what I understood.
  • #12,947
  • Edited 10:11pm Jul 8, 2010 9:55pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting strat
Unfortunately, I am a day trader.

In your dreams, pal!

According to your many mumbo jumbo posts, you can't trade your way out of a paper bag! Keep trying though, we need the liquidation.
Ha ha Strat, thanks for review my past posts. Those posts are one year old when I was only slightly profitable and are now history. My dream is coming true!!!!

You gotta have a dream. If you don't have a dream, how you gonna make a dream come true?
  • #12,948
  • Edited 11:33pm Jul 8, 2010 10:00pm | Edited 11:33pm
Thanks Strat, much appreciated. Let me assure you, you are not wasting your time on me. My understanding of your methodology is increasing.

I have some follow up queries:

1) It is a PRICE high but NOT a SWING high
Absolutely correct. I should have labelled it as an “unconfirmed” LH until there is a low, lower than the low of the May bar.

2) The hammer is at SUPPORT and therefore cancels out the July 8 BEOB
But surely this is only until price breaks down through the support?
The 8 July candle did break support but could not hold and closed just above.

3) Could you please post one or more charts showing how you identify the ascending triangles.

This would be a very valuable.

I am attaching my charts showing my efforts to plot the triangles, but I am not sure if my plots are correct.

4) Do you consider PASR ATM trades permissible within the boundaries of the triangles?

Thanks again.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad monthly 9 july.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad weekly 9 july.jpg Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad daily 9 july.jpg Size: 102 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,949
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:27pm Jul 8, 2010 10:27pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/poll.php...lts&pollid=714

Quoting strat
Unfortunately, I am a day trader.

In your dreams, pal!

According to your many mumbo jumbo posts, you can't trade your way out of a paper bag! Keep trying though, we need the liquidation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clipboard07.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #12,950
  • Jul 9, 2010 3:19am Jul 9, 2010 3:19am
I understant and accept Strat's trend lines going through the close of a candle rather than the shadow. However I have seen many charts where the Fibs are placed on the candle shadows rather than on the main body? Where should the Fibs be placed.
However I am not using fibs at the moment so early in the path of understanding this strategy but am just curious.
Another point is I cannot find anything on where to place the 20ema,50sma, 100ema & 250sma. I have put all of them on the "close". Please clarify.
Final note to Strat, I am in the process of reading through everyone of your posts and man you "Rock". Ignore the skeptics they may come and "Roll" but those who love the music will always listen to the man from Britain.
  • #12,951
  • Jul 9, 2010 3:47am Jul 9, 2010 3:47am
Quoting No1Optimist
2) The hammer is at SUPPORT and therefore cancels out the July 8 BEOB
But surely this is only until price breaks down through the support?
The 8 July candle did break support but could not hold and closed just above.
Hi,
the July 06 BEOB was at Resistance 1.063 and its valid until the price reaches another SR level where we have another PA. Now the price is at support 1.039 but we dont have the PA yet. Yesterday was not a hammer on my chart.

If we will have a PA (for example a BUEB) at this support, then this last PA is the one that matters because is the latest news on the bull-bear fight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_d1_09.07.png Size: 32 KB
  • #12,952
  • Jul 9, 2010 4:15am Jul 9, 2010 4:15am
Quoting kalvind
I understant and accept Strat's trend lines going through the close of a candle rather than the shadow. However I have seen many charts where the Fibs are placed on the candle shadows rather than on the main body? Where should the Fibs be placed.
Use the candle extremes to draw fibs.

To draw the Fibonacci Retracement from the attachment, I've clicked & hold the point A (High) and then drag down to point B (Low) and release.

I've changed my Fibonacci Retracement tool from the default one. I took out the levels 0.0 and 1.0 for clarity. The description of the levels are reversed, because it is more clear to me to see how much the price retraced compared with the measured swing. E.g. If the price reaches 0.382 level, that means it has reteaced 61.8% from the measured swing.

I hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibs.png Size: 49 KB
  • #12,953
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:06am Jul 9, 2010 5:06am
Long time since I posted and feel I owe an explanation of sorts.

My trading experience during june was not a good one, and has forced me to take a hard look as to why that happened. I was guilty of overtrading for starters, and trying to get back my losses which naturally made them worse, but most of all I found myself taking too much notice of what I read here and elsewhere instead of looking at what MY charts were telling me.

So I am now being very strict about NOT trading because someone somewhere had a setup that they liked, unless I see and like a setup on MY chart I am sitting on my hands.

My trading strategy is exactly in line with the teaching on this thread, although I am taking a lot more notice of fib levels relative to SR and if there is no PA that I want then I am passing no matter how much I like the rest of the setup.

I have found the teaching on this thread so helpful at arriving at a situation where I know what to do and how to do, and I am having success now in overcoming the gremlins, which is SO difficult that I fight them every day with every trade.

When I think I am able to comment on someone else's post you will know that I have finally achieved the level of success that I have set out for myself. So that may be quite a long time away.

In the meantime I hope that this thread continues to help those who are prepared to make the effort to read and understand this thread, it is a veritable gold mine for anyone who wants to become a successful trader.

A heartfelt thanks to Strat, Alex and Nic and the others whose expertise is so easily shared and appreciated, they do not spoonfeed just point the way, some more gently than others!

Larry
  • #12,954
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:08am Jul 9, 2010 5:08am
Quoting kalvind
I understant and accept Strat's trend lines going through the close of a candle rather than the shadow.
Hi Kalvind,
Trendline are drawn for high or low of the candle and not the close of the candle. If you see drawn from close to close then they are DSRI. DSRI's were discussed in the thread but because of advance nature they are not taught on this thread.
Fib and TL, I don't think have any connection.
  • #12,955
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:10am Jul 9, 2010 5:10am
Quoting LarryK
Long time since I posted and feel I owe an explanation of sorts.

My trading experience during june was not a good one,
I think June was not good for lots of experienced traders as well. But this month is looking good to me.
  • #12,956
  • Jul 9, 2010 6:54am Jul 9, 2010 6:54am
Quoting kk007
Dear All,

Is there a printer-friendly summary of the thread? If not, let me know, thanks anyway.

cheers,

kk
open thread tools (top right)
click on: show printable version
click on: Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page
  • #12,957
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:51am Jul 9, 2010 7:51am
Hi Folkes,
I am starting the journey and have put together a checklist for monitoring a possible trade. Obviously I am using charts but wanted to qualify that I am looking at the correct signs in the three time frames. Obviously as I get more experienced I may not need to use this checklist but want a disciplined approach to trading.
I do not know DSRI, and have been advised to stay away from it?
Feel free to change the spread sheet and any help/advise would be welcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Strats_checklist.xls   20 KB | 738 downloads
  • #12,958
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:33am Jul 9, 2010 9:33am
Quoting GibsonL6
Hi Strat!

Thanks for clearing that up.
LL, LH, HL and HH should only be identified at confirmed swing high's and low's from what I understood.
Yes - swing recognition

Also, remember that the May Big Boss bar is STILL the controlling bar and PRICE can run up and down it until there is a close above or below it
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,959
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:40am Jul 9, 2010 9:40am
Quoting kk007
Ha ha Strat, thanks for review my past posts. Those posts are one year old when I was only slightly profitable and are now history. My dream is coming true!!!!
The first lot I read before seeing through your bravado were hours, days and weeks old! You need to face facts that dreaming about becoming a trader will NOT make you a trader - IT TAKES TIME and HARD WORK!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,960
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:41am Jul 9, 2010 9:41am
Quoting kk007
http://www.forexfactory.com/poll.php...lts&pollid=714
Q.E.D
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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