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  • #7,241
  • Jul 7, 2010 3:58pm Jul 7, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting piptalk
Heres a couple of classic setups on the EU....170+ pips.....Just getting back to the basics on the original thead,,, 1 hour chart ...BPC....161 fib target..1.2718.. fib extensions from yesterdays hi/lo swings,,,,Partial profits already taken...
good post. yep, a classic setup. But please don't forget your most important tool. There has to be an S/R level at the reaction point. let's say fibs and RN's and so on are a good add-on, but the core, also with hector's strat is a reaction off an S/R level. (you had an S/R level, just you didn't mark it)

Other than that, good setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 7.7.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,242
  • Jul 7, 2010 4:40pm Jul 7, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting Custos
well, with fitting I just mean make the level fit my expectation. That it either tests the level or breaks and retests it from the other side. Like in the first example a lot of times it didn't test it from the other side, so I wanna take past data points to analyze where the level should exactly be located and how wide the range should be in order to be able to profit from the upcoming moves at this level.
And no, not only break, just saying, if it breaks again, where is it likely to retest.
And it doesn't have to be the next less obvious level,...
Ahh ok, I believe I understand. You are trying to find the end of the range by analyzing areas near the key level that held price or acted like a 'flip', per say. That could work well in theory - going to personally look at my past trades and see the differentials between scaling size lost, losers turned into winners, etc with your idea.
  • #7,243
  • Jul 7, 2010 5:10pm Jul 7, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Custos
.................So what do you guys think, is this just a crazy idea or what do you think of this?
Hi Custos...

I've just arrived home and was updating me on the thread...

IMHO, the first level you have drawn in your chart is perfectly valid, and it fits quite good many times....
Bears try hard to break it but they finally cannot do it..
Later, after the real breakout, it tests it from below creating an slightly lower level....
Last attempt to go into the previous range again, but it fails making a HH and go down in quite good momentum...

It is obvious that hindsight is very deceiving, and talking after the fact is so easy.... but if around the levels, when price doesn't bounce quickly (witch is the expected) maybe can help to go down to the 15 min. charts to try to make some sense of what price is doing...

I hope it helps a little to the discussion, but ....this is only a newbie opinion, so bear with me...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,244
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:37am Jul 8, 2010 2:37am
Quoting Bancho
Hi Custos...

I've just arrived home and was updating me on the thread...

IMHO, the first level you have drawn in your chart is perfectly valid, and it fits quite good many times....
Bears try hard to break it but they finally cannot do it..
Later, after the real breakout, it tests it from below creating an slightly lower level....
Last attempt to go into the previous range again, but it fails making a HH and go down in quite good momentum...

It is obvious that hindsight is very deceiving, and talking after the fact is so easy.... but if around...
some really good points. Yeah it all depends how you wanna slice the cake. I gotta look into that, if m15 is better for trade management.
For me personally, I like discretion before I enter a trade, which is for me finding good S/R levels. Once I am in a trade I wanna have something mechanical, something that doesn't require discretion. Cause otherwise I go insane, if I watch every single candle moving in favor or against me. Also it would limit my ability to find new setups.

But gotta look into it. Definitely a valid idea.
  • #7,245
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:53am Jul 8, 2010 6:53am
Quoting Custos
some really good points. Yeah it all depends how you wanna slice the cake. I gotta look into that, if m15 is better for trade management.
For me personally, I like discretion before I enter a trade, which is for me finding good S/R levels. Once I am in a trade I wanna have something mechanical, something that doesn't require discretion. Cause otherwise I go insane, if I watch every single candle moving in favor or against me. Also it would limit my ability to find new setups.

But gotta look into it. Definitely a valid idea.
Hi again..

yes, totally agree..... it all depends how each one feels more comfortable with...

the thing that I've observed is that when there is a spike through the level in the regular 1H charts, the spike usually appears also in the 15min. charts... When this is not the case and the 15 min. candle closes the other side of the level, and it gives you a BPC (even when the hourly closes in the right side), this fact usually calls for a potential stop and reverse in the breakout direction......
I see it like 1H candle forming a pin bar off the level (what shows rejection) but... the very next candle breaks above the top/bottom of that previous pin bar wick....
I tend to read that like a try to break the level that the first time had to "eat" some "ping-pong" orders pilled around there, but bulls/bears are strong enough to "eat" them and push price again higher/lower....
Of course that doesn't means that they are gonna totally succeed, but odds are that the move can be good for a try..

Only a newbie opinion again, hope it helps a little
  • #7,246
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:50am Jul 8, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Custos
Continuing the thought of last time that a good level should not only make price move away, but let you hop on board when breached.
I attached two charts (usdcad h1). Only pay attention to my orange lines. First chart you see it looks like a good level at first, but if you pay attention to my "x"s you can see that we would have lost quite a bit with that level.
So maybe there is a distinction between good and bad levels. And maybe it is important to "fit" the level sometimes, if historical results have been bad on that level.
Second chart...
Hi Custos,
There are a couple questions I need to ask to understand this a bit better. Not sure which question/comments to put first but I’ll start anyways.
1)what lead you to think in terms of defining the level range, were you getting stopped out or reversing the position later to find out that price went back in the direction of the trade ?
2)The level you marked does look good …. I observed that on this level price pierced down through it and later jumped back up …..and on the way up PA went up through the resistance by approx same distance. Could this be an added hint in defining the range.
3)What criteria you have used to define/draw the range/data points?

I hope I am not further complicating the matter.

Ciao
  • #7,247
  • Jul 8, 2010 8:04am Jul 8, 2010 8:04am
Quoting MktScape
Hi Custos,
There are a couple questions I need to ask to understand this a bit better. Not sure which question/comments to put...
ad 1) hm, I started noticing that not every level is a good level. Thus I have to qualify the levels. So, either I cut out the levels that don't seem good at first or I make them fit into my trading parameters so that I can use them as well.
ad 2) not sure what you are saying, can you post a chart?
ad 3) my criteria are that most of the moves from the level should have made me money, meaning that price most of the time retested when breaching the level. I realize that this is in hindsight then, but my assumption is: If it worked in the past it should work in the future as well. Now what I have to do is to find out if that assumption is true.

more clear now?
  • #7,248
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:37am Jul 8, 2010 9:37am
shorting the euro here is a no-brainer. Trendline + strong S/R level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,249
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:53am Jul 8, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Custos
ad 1) hm, I started noticing that not every level is a good level. Thus I have to qualify the levels. So, either I cut out the levels that don't seem good at first or I make them fit into my trading parameters so that I can use them as well.
ad 2) not sure what you are saying, can you post a chart?
ad 3) my criteria are that most of the moves from the level should have made me money, meaning that price most of the time retested when breaching the level. I realize that this is in hindsight then, but my assumption is: If it worked in the past it should...

Attaching the chart ... i've marked the areas where price went through S/R.

ok so its not due to the fact that you were getting stopped out and reversing the trade leter to find out that price still went in the anticipated direction. You simply fellt that because price is piercing through it therefore it may not be a good level becuase a good level should be able to hold price below it majority of the times?


With respect to your 3 point ...
"meaning that price most of the time retested when breaching the level."

So if you are playing a resitance level(short) and there is a breach and price tests it from above but still breakdown through it? however (as per your thinking) if you were able to define a range and you would only reverse your position if price retest that range.

With the wider SL strategy (which should take care of the breach) what else might be casuing you to miss the money ? are you closing out trades prematurely?

So if my above rant has nothing to do with closing and revering then I am thinking that shouldt the wider SL take care of the breach?
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  • #7,250
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:27am Jul 8, 2010 10:27am
Quoting MktScape
Attaching the chart ... i've marked the areas where price went through S/R.

ok so its not due to the fact that you were getting stopped out and reversing the trade leter to find out that price still went in the anticipated direction. You simply fellt that because price is piercing through it therefore it may not be a good level becuase a good level should be able to hold price below it majority of the times?
no, price can breach the level as much as it wants, but it has to retest it after the breach and not just shoot off. That's the requirement.
Quoting MktScape
With respect to your 3 point ...
"meaning that price most of the time retested when breaching the level."
So if you are playing a resitance level(short) and there is a breach and price tests it from above but still breakdown through it? however (as per your thinking) if you were able to define a range and you would only reverse your position if price retest that range.
yes

Quoting MktScape
With the wider SL strategy (which should take care of the breach) what else might be casuing you to miss the money ? are you closing out trades prematurely?
only thing which makes me miss the money is if I enter on bad levels, in order to avoid that, I will either delete those levels or make them fit. Nope, closing them out on retest (assuming you mean when a trade turns against me)

Quoting MktScape
So if my above rant has nothing to do with closing and revering then I am thinking that shouldt the wider SL take care of the breach?
yes it should
  • #7,251
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:40am Jul 8, 2010 11:40am
Wow, some great posts with very valuable info. Thanks!

Well, here are two trades that I hope will work out.

First is EUR/GBP, short at black line which seems to be a good S/R level.

Second, long USD/JPY at black S/R level. On the hourly and 4 hourly chart the price closed above the level. Also seems like a good level to fade.

What do you guys think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP July.JPG Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Hourly July.JPG Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD JPY Daily.JPG Size: 188 KB
  • #7,252
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:59am Jul 8, 2010 11:59am
Quoting CharlesSA
Wow, some great posts with very valuable info. Thanks!

Well, here are two trades that I hope will work out.

First is EUR/GBP, short at black line which seems to be a good S/R level.

Second, long USD/JPY at black S/R level. On the hourly and 4 hourly chart the price closed above the level. Also seems like a good level to fade.

What do you guys think?
Nice stuff charles. I took the EURGBP one and decided to sit against the USDJPY because I prefer 'flips' past the range. I have the top of USDJPY range at 88.51. But if you take it, at least momentum is on your side.
  • #7,253
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:16pm Jul 8, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting randomperson
Nice stuff charles. I took the EURGBP one and decided to sit against the USDJPY because I prefer 'flips' past the range. I have the top of USDJPY range at 88.51. But if you take it, at least momentum is on your side.

Good call on that range. Thanks for pointing it out. I am currently +12 pips so will move to BE and let it do what it decides. I feel a bit more confident that you also see EURGBP as a good one

Thanks
  • #7,254
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:17pm Jul 8, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting CharlesSA
Wow, some great posts with very valuable info. Thanks!

Well, here are two trades that I hope will work out.

First is EUR/GBP, short at black line which seems to be a good S/R level.

Second, long USD/JPY at black S/R level. On the hourly and 4 hourly chart the price closed above the level. Also seems like a good level to fade.

What do you guys think?
yep, also think those are very good levels.
  • #7,255
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:22pm Jul 8, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Custos
yep, also think those are very good levels.

Thanks Custos
  • #7,256
  • Edited 6:51pm Jul 8, 2010 5:37pm | Edited 6:51pm
Custos,
The logic you have given for the need to differentiate between good and bad levels (based on historical PA around those levels) and then defining the price zone for bad levels and only taking trade on the retest from above or breach (for shorts) is quite convincing. However the utility of this can be determined after testing this concept with trades fitting this scenario.

Do post some charts of upcoming trades meeting this subject.

Now, i was wondering what rules/criteria you would be employing to differentiate between a good or bad level and then defining the price range for the bad ones?

Ciao
  • #7,257
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:04pm Jul 8, 2010 9:04pm

A picture is worth a thousand words
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurGbp DAILY.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #7,258
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:08am Jul 9, 2010 1:08am
Quoting MktScape
Custos,

Now, i was wondering what rules/criteria you would be employing to differentiate between a good or bad level and then defining the price range for the bad ones?

Ciao
haha, I think you asked that question now 3 times in 3 different ways and I gave you 3 times the same answer.

here it goes again.

to qualify for a good level I want price to retest that level after a breach and not just shoot off.

And defining the price range: I adjust the range until I see most of the time a retest after a breach.

does that answer your question now?
  • #7,259
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:12am Jul 9, 2010 1:12am
Quoting Jorg

A picture is worth a thousand words
yes, very good short
  • #7,260
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:39am Jul 9, 2010 2:39am
Quoting Custos
shorting the euro here is a no-brainer. Trendline + strong S/R level.
This EUR has me annoyed! Why on earth is it so stubborn?

This morning it touched the weekly R1 pivot line and made a reverse, albeit a small one. Custos, what do you think... because it has a few candle closes above the major trend line would you consider going long on the retest of UTL? Would love to know your thoughts on this pair as it sure likes breaking our rules
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