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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #68,141
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:26pm Jul 7, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
picture #2
Wow! No SL on your trades ( not present on your chart)?
  • #68,142
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:27pm Jul 7, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting novice198
The Aussie Trade Balance figures released on Tuesday were 3.1 times higher than the forecasted figures. A positive variation of over 300% strentghened the currency considerably.
...
Tha is my 2 cents worth. Seniors pls free feel to agree / shoot down my analysis and / or give yours.
AUD barely moved at all in reaction to BoT. It hardly ever does, because BoT isnt really all that important (unless it happens to be massively negative, but even then its pretty meh).

It was falling on super thin volume all morning in the leadup to the RBA release after lunch, the lack of US volume the night before for National-America-F*ck-Yeah-Day Holiday.

It was the tone of the RBA statement released later that afternoon that drove the movements.

Quoting mbqb11
I always get taken aback by people who just start out trading at 2%, 3%, 4% risk per trade without knowing their methods.
I get pretty taken aback when people trade anything without knowing their method

Quoting Cyrus
but I still don't quite see a proper reason for short EURAUD on a fundie basis, other than betting on a return of risk appetite which shoves AUD higher
It isnt really risk appetite driving EURAUD trades, since they tend to react in the same direction. It's more a comparative strenth thing - one of the worlds weakest economies vs one of the worlds strongest.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #68,143
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:46pm Jul 7, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting ertorque
Wow! No SL on your trades ( not present on your chart)?

I wouldn't let either of these turn into losses at this point. I will kill them and go short if I get a solid A+ signal on a good fib level.... until then, we ride on
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #68,144
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:56pm Jul 7, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting Bemac
Can you explain why?
Honestly, I'm interested.
bcoz im stupid i chose lower tf and expected retracement to fibs.. and got stopped out.. normal!
maybe was too early///
  • #68,145
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:59pm Jul 7, 2010 11:59pm
cadchf h4 div... daily tiny div...
time to go long?
  • #68,146
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:09am Jul 8, 2010 12:09am
Quoting mistersimple
cadchf h4 div... daily tiny div...
time to go long?
You can make your life a LOT easier by sticking to the most heavily traded pairs....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #68,147
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:15am Jul 8, 2010 12:15am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
You can make your life a LOT easier by sticking to the most heavily traded pairs....
well I will just give the flip side

I think watching more pairs just means more potential opportunities if you are picky. I think wathcing more pairs makes life easier cause you can just be patient for the good ones. But of course as Dan has said it is easier for him not to and everyone has to find their comfort zone.

I have been watching this pair closely. We are at parity and that is always a key level. But right now we have just paused after a strong move down. I am watching the consolidation that we are at and will look for some sign one way or the other.

Best
Mike
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  • #68,148
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:20am Jul 8, 2010 12:20am
Quoting mbqb11
....
I have been watching this pair closely....
yeah, watching it too for almost 2 days now.
might we see a huge nose on 1 side & then.... 'the move'?
hahah..
  • #68,149
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:20am Jul 8, 2010 12:20am
Quoting supremeChaos
yeah, watching it too for almost 2 days now.
might we see a huge nose on 1 side & then.... 'the move'?
hahah..
haha pretty much right
  • #68,150
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:21am Jul 8, 2010 12:21am
Quoting mbqb11
well I will just give the flip side

I think watching more pairs just means more potential opportunities if you are picky....

the correlation between many pairs makes it seem silly to me to trade so many pairs these days... BUT! Yes, we all have our own version of comfort .

I have seen too many opportunities on too few pairs lately to spread my view out too far beyond E/U, G/U, A/U, E/J, G/J. EDIT: If i try to watch more pairs, I miss obvious bars in obvious places!

final edit: I agree on several pairs for longer T/Fs
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #68,151
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:47am Jul 8, 2010 12:47am
Quoting Cyrus
MAN. QUITE WRONG WASN'T I?
.....
bro, dont worry, i did much worse.
trying to be a smart ass.. i placed a small long position. it was small so i placed a bigger than usual stop loss.
the small position played with my mind... i got married to my trade...
it was obvious the market was falling (this was when price was still in the 1.4800-50s), & yet i did not exit much sooner. if i did exit, i could've made a better play (would've gotten in a short position +/-100pips before the BEOB break).
that euraud "moves" when it moves, huh? i was 3hrs past my bedtime then & it was still moving.... & look at it now

Quoting MktScape
....
Any ideas as to what could be done to fix this problem?
it's best to PM AtClarkson himself.

Quoting cprao
At least, I am glad that I am with you so far. My biggest problem now seems to be
1) Identfying FTA's /Trade management.....
Hope I will get over this soon.
i think many will agree that FTA or TA identification per se is easy.
the trade/risk management is the difficult/variable/discretionary part.

it takes time to settle with what u are comfortable with, but it's for the best.
  • #68,152
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:59am Jul 8, 2010 12:59am
Quoting spookie94
Thanks Mike,
I thought a micro acct was small enough for a $1000 account. Do you have any thoughts on a good broker that has nano accts?

Try Oanda
  • #68,153
  • Edited 2:14am Jul 8, 2010 1:12am | Edited 2:14am
Quoting spookie94
Here's what I'm trying to get at: I placed a trade today, and due to the size of my SL I used 1% risk. It reached my FTA. I only traded 1 lot so I had to close out all of the position. If I used 2% I could of closed half and let the other half go another 100+ pips. If I were to now on use 2% should I always use at least 2%? Should you try to always use the same amount?
Just trying to get the most bang for my pennies without being stupid about it.

Well, what was wrong with closing 0.5 of the full lot at the FTA and leaving the rest to run?

A lot of people do not seem to understand that we can close out our trade in portions, we do not have to close the whole thing.
I always, scale out.


My broker always me to open a 0.05 position and often I close 0.03 at the FTA.


EDIT: You mentioned trading an account under $1,000 US yet, you also mentioned you are trading 1 lot?

How do you arrive at 1 lot on a $1,000 account being 1% of the total equity?
  • #68,154
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:23am Jul 8, 2010 1:23am
Quoting fxrogue
Hey guys, any opinions on the below USDCAD chart, got a DHLC, bounce off good resis and long term trendline.???
..
this is a uber-fast thread, huh?
did u take this trade?
well i checked the live chart, i was about to say 1.0470 area is possible immediate traffic area. price is hovering around there now.
next would be around 1.0400.
pretty choppy pair, though.

i know u did not mention it, but just to be clear, there is no MACD divergence.

Welcome to the thread!
  • #68,155
  • Edited 1:57am Jul 8, 2010 1:24am | Edited 1:57am
Quoting jarroo
How did those work out for you today?
Sorry for the late reply - EUR/AUD was a beauty, didn't take long to hit the target at all. It's still moving down so I kind of wish I'd stayed in with a position split into 2 or 3 but water under the bridge and all that. I'm happy with what the market gave me

AUD/USD is at B/E and about 25 pips from the target, USD/CAD (short) also got triggered and about 20 or so pips in profit.

*EDIT* - AUD/USD target ( 0.8750) hit for the whole position

Shweeeeet!
Anything can happen.
  • #68,156
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:46am Jul 8, 2010 1:46am
Quoting joelcf
It isnt really risk appetite driving EURAUD trades, since they tend to react in the same direction. It's more a comparative strenth thing - one of the worlds weakest economies vs one of the worlds strongest.
I know what you mean. My hypothesis was that the market is pricing in and focusing on a US double dip now, so by default, EUR shows strength, as can be seen by Fiber's pretty massive run up.

I do agree fully on the weak/strong economies part for certain and also of late, have noticed that AUD in particular has become one of the vehicles for expressing a view on risk-on. So that's why I said risk appetite.

Hmm. LOL. I guess we're both saying the same thing arn't we? I suppose I wasn't expecting AUD to strengthen THAT much - so yeah, strongest vs weakest economy thingo - but I also realised that PA across the board on AUD's side was telegraphing a pretty clear message that I missed.

Summary:
Weak Economy vs Strong Economy
Bullish PA on AUD
AUD = risk-on's vehicle of expression
Thus, EUR < AUD, even if both run in same direction.

Thanks for bringing that up. Discussion helped to clarify my thoughts.

Quoting supremeChaos
bro, dont worry, i did much worse.
trying to be a smart ass.. i placed a small long position. it was small so i placed a bigger than usual stop loss.
Ouch. I didn't touch it, but a few of my other plays are alright and running alright. I liked the PA, but the fundie hypothesis wasn't clear to me at that time.

Oversight on my part. Nice of it to be highlighted to the world here. LOL. Burns it into memory.

We live and learn now hey. =)
----------

In 20/20, US equity was badly OS as were xxx/JPY pairs + strong bullish PA across the board. I guess I should have taken the hint, albeit subtle.

I need to bloody write these "views" down better. High oppty cost this was.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #68,157
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:48am Jul 8, 2010 1:48am
Quoting mbqb11
...
I have been watching this pair closely. We are at parity and that is always a key level...
OML!!!
check this out... we have a new champion.. I46B is history
cadchf's current daily bar (as of this writing) is an I81B..... BUT, it hasnt fully formed yet
yesterday's bar is an I8B


Quoting Cyrus
....
Nice of it to be highlighted to the world here. Burns it into memory. ....
yes, that was the intention: share the lesson
  • #68,158
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:49am Jul 8, 2010 1:49am
something to watch for the day...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #68,159
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:09am Jul 8, 2010 2:09am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
picture...
I took the weekly BUOB for EURUSD targeting 1.2700, 1.2900 and a trail for the rest if it breaks 1.3.

Your profit target looks nice. I'd like it to hit 1.27 today for 1/3 off the table and the rest moved to B/E.

Gosh I hope I'm not over trading, it doesn't feel right having so many trades going on with the rarity of really good set ups.
Anything can happen.
  • #68,160
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:12am Jul 8, 2010 2:12am
This is not even funny how powerful these few simple setups are.

I picked them up from this same thread, a few weeks ago and now I have FIVE huge wins in a row. Even though I closed them the very next day compared to my previous 5min trading they are HUGE I can only wonder what you guys make per month applying all strategies and holding a position for weeks...

So happy to find this thread, and it is my honour to be here. Thank you!!!
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