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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,321
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:11am Jul 6, 2010 5:11am
Quoting Fana
Hi MyTbo. US opens after some rest... Now ranging, but seems to me, that they put it into the cross E/G. Maybe they are afraid of US open. It can be anything... So they maybe try to hedge themselves...
How do you trade your "maybe's"?
  • #17,322
  • Edited 5:32am Jul 6, 2010 5:15am | Edited 5:32am
Quoting piccolo
How do you trade your "maybe's"?
Hi Piccolo. This is only what i observe and feel. Now i have scout EUR/USD short. Now unclear... wait how it develops... After "maybe" new trend, i try more... But untill this, i stay with scout...

In case, that the bigs will have EUR down, i try dont be killed by longs, but when this is not valid, for what to wait. So i will use more positions how it will be developing.
Now, waiting for some bus...

You think of that E/G cross to use it???
  • #17,323
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:33am Jul 6, 2010 5:33am
Quoting Fana
Hi Piccolo. This is only what i observe and feel. Now i have scout EUR/USD short. Now unclear... wait how it develops... After "maybe" new trend, i try more... But untill this, i stay with scout...

In case, that the bigs will have EUR down, i try dont be killed by longs, but when this is not valid, for what to wait. So i will use more positions how it will be developing.
Now, waiting for some bus...

You think of that E/G cross to use it???
European stocks are up, let's see if DOW will follow.
  • #17,324
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:42am Jul 6, 2010 5:42am
Quoting piccolo
European stocks are up, let's see if DOW will follow.
Yep, but it can be anything anyway. I dont have crystal ball. It can go up, down and side. I am not the fan of any. I only manage positions into what will be actuall. And if you want me to bet where it will go, so my bet for dow today is plus3,8%, just kidding, sorry
And i closed that short scout, now it would be stressfull waiting and my nerves have to be ready and fit to hit.
-this range have its purpose... imho to make greed in people... as many times.."where, where..? am i right... oh no, i am not... oh... bad, bad, dont wait i have to be there... i must have the position-this kill them soon imho.)
regards
  • #17,325
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:52am Jul 6, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Fana
Yep, but it can be anything anyway. I dont have crystal ball. It can go up, down and side. I am not the fan of any. I only manage positions into what will be actuall. And if you want me to bet where it will go, so my bet for dow today is plus3,8%, just kidding, sorry
All I am saying is be at the terminal when the train comes.

No need to bet. Can go either way.
  • #17,326
  • Jul 6, 2010 6:04am Jul 6, 2010 6:04am
Quoting piccolo
All I am saying is be at the terminal when the train comes.

No need to bet. Can go either way.
Maybe its my english... I was joking about it. So why to repeat what i already have said? But if still somebody want me to bet? Here is another: EUR/USD1,2800today
-beting is popular... i will be popular.... §§§

D o n t t r y m e , i a m b e c o m m i n g h u n t e r !
  • #17,327
  • Jul 6, 2010 6:13am Jul 6, 2010 6:13am
Quoting Fana
Maybe its my english... I was joking about it. So why to repeat what i already have said? But if still somebody want me to bet? Here is another: EUR/USD1,2800today
-beting is popular... i will be popular.... §§§

D o n t t r y m e , i a m b e c o m m i n g h u n t e r !
you want a crystal ball? 1.2690
  • #17,328
  • Jul 6, 2010 6:20am Jul 6, 2010 6:20am
Quoting Gro
you want a crystal ball? 1.2690
, no thanx, i have one. But maybe is "pokazena..."(broken)
  • #17,329
  • Jul 6, 2010 6:23am Jul 6, 2010 6:23am
Quoting Fana
, no thanx, i have one. But maybe is "pokazena..."(broken)
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  • #17,330
  • Jul 6, 2010 6:28am Jul 6, 2010 6:28am
Now waiting...........
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Click to Enlarge Name: 45605cowboy-clock.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #17,331
  • Edited 7:41am Jul 6, 2010 7:23am | Edited 7:41am
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  • #17,332
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:04am Jul 6, 2010 8:04am
Quoting Gro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0wPBYDQ6Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYFU-...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJopL220kuE
Great music and great films.
When i see these and also clasic Terrence Hill films... I have to buy beans and onion and do it on a pan and have it with bread and beer... yeah... I like the atmosphere of these films very much
  • #17,333
  • Edited 8:35am Jul 6, 2010 8:19am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting Fana
Great music and great films.
When i see these and also clasic Terrence Hill films... I have to buy beans and onion and do it on a pan and have it with bread and beer... yeah... I like the atmosphere of these films very much
if you do not have the "ecstasy of gold",
if you have the "volition and memory"(memory muscle as the golfers)
You can understand "killing theme"
  • #17,334
  • Edited 11:05am Jul 6, 2010 10:49am | Edited 11:05am
Euro is very strong today, I've been trading against my short bias today. It turned out very nice, I made some pips shorting the retracements and going long when EUR/USD thrusted up.

I'm currently long EUR/USD from 1.2637, after I closed my short position from 1.2656.

On the daily chart this rally looks like a pretty deep retracement.

Regards, MyTbo

Edit: Squared at 1.2648
  • #17,335
  • Edited 10:28am Jul 7, 2010 8:32am | Edited 10:28am
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Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch (Oct. 23, 1960 - July 25, 2008) gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007, before a packed McConomy Auditorium. In his moving presentation, "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams," Pausch talked about his lessons learned and gave advice to students on how to achieve their own career and personal goals.

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  • #17,336
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:05am Jul 7, 2010 10:05am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo


Very good speaker.
  • #17,337
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:37am Jul 7, 2010 10:37am
Is it only me or i am not getting who bought Euro from 1.18 to 1.27...

Who bought eh 45 billion euro from iran Bank and even then Euro is going up..

whos behind all this...


Ans : Best guess China???



V
  • #17,338
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:24am Jul 7, 2010 11:24am
The Human Nature.

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  • #17,339
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:26am Jul 7, 2010 11:26am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Is it only me or i am not getting who bought Euro from 1.18 to 1.27...

Who bought eh 45 billion euro from iran Bank and even then Euro is going up..

whos behind all this...


Ans : Best guess China???



V
Does it matter, Who?

I believe guess wrong,
One thing is for sure. They bought much assets in Greece, including the port. So We know she moving to real assets.
Watch Euro Cable spreads, footprint of CBs. B.UB.A leaning on Cable since good review on uk budgets?
Second half now in play, if still heli theory not show results. Shit hits fan. Third quarter , no good fundementals. Watch out October effect ,we are near.

regards
  • #17,340
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:31am Jul 7, 2010 11:31am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Is it only me or i am not getting who bought Euro from 1.18 to 1.27...

Who bought eh 45 billion euro from iran Bank and even then Euro is going up..

whos behind all this...


Ans : Best guess China???



V
You've got an interesting view on this rally. Mine although is based on speculation not on logic. The last drop to 1.18 was after the NFP which came out good since the temporary hiring for population count. Big players realized that this is not a sign of recovery of the job market but just a temporary situation, so they killed all the stops of the speculators trying to pick the bottom and then positioned for the rally upward.

Market behaves most of the time illogically , because that's how market makers make the most money. Today is an example. EUR/USD goes up and down with no other logic but to kill speculators.

Regards, MyTbo
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