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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #68,081
  • Jul 7, 2010 5:10am Jul 7, 2010 5:10am
This week I noticed that AUD/CHF is very similar to the Dow.
It would be easy to mix them up.

CAD/CHF has something of a similarity but not the same.

So AUD is tracking the Dow.

The Dow has plenty of room to go down short term and longer term.

EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD and the AUD CAD with CHF crosses have been good for the majority of a year.

There has to come a point when this will change, maybe totally reverse.
The view that there is a long term trend is fine to a point but the longer the trend has run the nearer it is to its end.
I think to presume these trends will continue comes from a wish rather than a hard fact.
I feel these trends have had their day.
I can't see positive data coming out on an economic front which is bound to hit commodity currencies.
  • #68,082
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:57am Jul 7, 2010 6:57am
Hi Guys,

I love the posts and follow them religiously every day.. Thanks for all the help..
I thought i would post up my trading plan for critisism from the seniors & Co,
What are your thoughts? How do you guys feel about 12/8/6 hour timeframes ... it seems the time frames generally spoken about here are weekly daily then it jumps down to 4 hour...

Anyway this is my plan below... i look forward to comments or to seeing other peoples trading plans... maybe collectively we can fine tune them..


Trading Plan(Mr Picky):

Objective is to trade carefully selected A+ level trades on Major Currency Pairs:
Timeframe: Weekly, Daily, 12 hour, 8 hour, 4 hour


Setups and Bars to search for:


PINBAR – Checklist for entry (LONGS AND SHORTS)
1.Does it stand out with a long wick sticking out further than all preceding bars.
2.Open and Close must be within the previous bar.
3.Confluence of fibonnacci retracement 50-61%, ppz, BRN, trendlines, Bar ideally red for shorts and green for longs. (min 2 must be satisfied for confluence)
4.First Target ppz must be easily defined.
5.Do not trade directly into BRN. For shorts, close below BRN for longs close above BRN.
6.LOCATON OF PIN 1 - Trade with major trend at retracements within this trend.
7.LOCATON OF PIN 2 - If at a top or bottom it must reject a brn/resistance/support. Added confirmation if it’s the 2nd/3rd rejection.
8.Entry order on break of pin with SL at end of pins wick.


LONG ENTRY:
BUOB Bullish outside bar – Checklist for entry (opposite strategy for BEOB)


1.The close of the BUOB must be in top quarter of the bar and above high of previous bar.
2.It must stand out and range be larger than previous bars.
3.To be played at lows and as a continuation bar.
4.Continuation entry, wait for break and retracement to BUOB’s previous bars high before entry.
5.Confluence of ppz, BRN, trendlines, which Elliott wave leg is it on?(continuation trade).
6.Initial SL place below BUOB.


Exit strategy for all trades – Exit 50% at PPZ TAR1
Move stop to BE then let trade run to PPZ TAR2 exit 30% more.
Let final 20% run with SL moved to PPZ 2.


give me your thoughts,

  • #68,083
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:53am Jul 7, 2010 7:53am
What are your thoughts? How do you guys feel about 12/8/6 hour timeframes .

Thoughts regarding specifics of your plan posted below after it mostly it looks real good apart from defining specific stuff. as for the 12/8/6 hour timeframes I do not use them due to how easy it would be to overtrade. Here's why:

If you are looking at a 12HR chart that means there are 12 different times at which a 12HR bar can be completed.

If you are looking at 8HR charts that means there are 8 different . . . etc.

6HR 6 different . . .

Which time is the correct close time ? Who knows ?

What I personally do is I have a different feed for every 4HR close, that presents more than enough trading opportunities. Anything else is overtrading, because you can aggregate any amount of bars to look like anything.

On the other hand plenty of people do aggregate bars and the opinion above is merely my personal one.


Trading Plan(Mr Picky) Nice name

Objective is to trade carefully selected A+ level trades on Major Currency Pairs: Sounds good,
]Timeframe: Weekly, Daily, 12 hour, 8 hour, 4 hour See above about 8HR charts.


Setups and Bars to search for:



PINBAR – Checklist for entry (LONGS AND SHORTS
1. Does it stand out with a long wick sticking out further than all preceding bars. Good.

2.Open and Close must be within the previous bar. Fine

3.Confluence of fibonnacci retracement 50-61%, ppz, BRN, trendlines, Bar ideally red for shorts and green for longs. (min 2 must be satisfied for confluence) Ok, so minimum of two confluences. Make sure to draw them in the day before or week before and then wait for PA to form. bar ideally red for shorts and green for longs ? What exactly does that mean ? That its nice if its red for a short and not good if the candle is green for a short, are you still going to take them anyway ? That way you have it stated serves nothing except to confuse. Either 1) Close has to be lower than open for short and Close has to be higher than open for longs or 2) Just forget all about this rule.

4.First Target ppz must be easily defined. It can always be defined unless there is heaps of space and even then it can be, and if not immediately obvious just go down to a lower tiemframe, no need for this rule.

5.Do not trade directly into BRN. For shorts, close below BRN for longs close above BRN. I would add "do not trade into PPZ" also, but that statement is not enough, your going to have to define how much space you need between your entry and "trading into the BRN" like if you have a risk of 100pips and your entry short is 20pips away from the round number then don't take it, but if you have a risk of 100pips and the BRN is 75pips away would you take it ? You need to define this more. Also include PPZ in this rule.

6.LOCATON OF PIN 1 - Trade with major trend at retracements within this trend. But how are you going to define the trend ? With MA's with higher highs/higher lows ? You need to define what a trend is and what a retracement is.
7.LOCATON OF PIN 2 - If at a top or bottom it must reject a brn/resistance/support. Added confirmation if it’s the 2nd/3rd rejection. Good, but you also must define the "added confirmation"
8.Entry order on break of pin with SL at end of pins wick. Good but you have not stated what pip value of a buffer you will use.



LONG ENTRY:
BUOB Bullish outside bar – Checklist for entry (opposite strategy for BEOB)

1.The close of the BUOB must be in top quarter of the bar and above high of previous bar. Good
2.It must stand out and range be larger than previous bars Good
3.To be played at lows and as a continuation bar. At extreme lows is fine, but you need to clear up your definition of a continuation bar, is it going to be with the trend, are you going to take every BEOB and BUOB then, even ones at extreme highs ? Fine if you are going to but just define it.
4.Continuation entry, wait for break and retracement to BUOB’s previous bars high before entry. Are you going to use that all the time or just some of the time ?
5.Confluence of ppz, BRN, trendlines, which Elliott wave leg is it on?(continuation trade). Yep fine, oh I see elliot wave ok disregard my earlier point when I asked about the "continuation" buob.
6.Initial SL place below BUOB. Good, again include buffer.

Exit strategy. for all trades– Exit 50% at PPZ TAR1
Move stop to BE then let trade run to PPZ TAR2 exit 30% more.
Let final 20% run with SL moved to PPZ 2.
 Most important part of any plan, sounds ok, but why ? Have you backtested and forward tested this vs. other exit strategy's ? You would want to have all the PPZ pre drawn in this case also to avoid discipline failures.

give me your thoughts, Just did , good trading bro

Regards,
Jig


http://incredimazing.com/static/medi...566968233n.jpg
  • #68,084
  • Edited 8:30am Jul 7, 2010 8:24am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting Cyrus
I'm personally watching this one and I know Bemac is as well. ...

I hope I'm making sense. Bemac, you there? Thoughts sir?
Thinking is hiatus for the next 24 Hrs or so.
I posted this in the USDJPY Discussion thread {the Red stuff}
The Blue is relative to EURAUD
ECB & BOE Tomorrow. Then I'll revisit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Juy 6 2010.PNG Size: 36 KB


http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
Not affiliated.
  • #68,085
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:31am Jul 7, 2010 8:31am
Thanks JIG for your feedback really helps an alternative perspective, tried to respond to your points in red...
If you are looking at a 12HR chart that means there are 12 different times at which a 12HR bar can be completed. There are only 2 x 12hr bars per day(24hrs) so not too sure what you mean by this..

If you are looking at 8HR charts that means there are 8 different . . . etc. There are 3 x 8hr bars per day ?!
6HR 6 different . . .

3.Confluence of fibonnacci retracement 50-61%, ppz, BRN, trendlines, Bar ideally red for shorts and green for longs. (min 2 must be satisfied for confluence) bar ideally red for shorts and green for longs ? I mean Close has to be lower than open for short and Close has to be higher than open for longs this would give me 1 tick of confluence of the 2 i require to take the trade. If i was considering a short and the pin bar was green (close higher than the open) then i would need to find 2 alternative confluences instead to take the trade...

4.First Target ppz must be easily defined. It can always be defined unless there is heaps of space and even then it can be, and if not immediately obvious just go down to a lower tiemframe, no need for this rule. Your right..this is not needed in the plan




LONG ENTRY:
BUOB Bullish outside bar – Checklist for entry (opposite strategy for BEOB)
4.Continuation entry, wait for break and retracement to BUOB’s previous bars high before entry. Are you going to use that all the time or just some of the time ? I will do this all of the time, i know this will cause me to miss some trades but its better than using break of bar and getting immediate retracement which tends to happen more in continuations setups


Exit strategy. for all trades– Exit 50% at PPZ TAR1
Move stop to BE then let trade run to PPZ TAR2 exit 30% more.
Let final 20% run with SL moved to PPZ 2.
Have you backtested and forward tested this vs. other exit strategy's ? I havent backtested but i will use this to start and after a sample size of 20 trades i'll analyse my results and adjust if necessary.You would want to have all the PPZ pre drawn in this case also to avoid discipline failures. (true and orders sitting on platform to take profits)

THANKS JIG.... YOUR a FELLOW IRISHMAN I SEE !!!



[/quote]
  • #68,086
  • Edited 9:00am Jul 7, 2010 8:43am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting Bemac
Thinking is hiatus for the next 24 Hrs or so.
I posted this in the USDJPY Discussion thread {the Red stuff}
The Blue is relative to EURAUD
ECB & BOE Tomorrow. Then I'll revisit.
Attachment

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
Not affiliated.
Ah. My apologies for not bringing them up. I'm expecting no change in both. Europe's badly in the hole and UK is a tad better. Throughout the crisis, Eurozone didn't cut, and the worst of it seems to be over now, so no reason to really cut rates now as a c/banker.

I'm not THAT familiar with UK though, so cannot quite comment, but, UK isn't spankin' hot per say now either, I can't seem them raising and 0.50% is pretty low to cut somemore. The c/banker of BOE would nd a pretty strong reason to chop it down THAT low. My 0.2pips.

Quoting supremeChaos
Nice discussion on EURAUD.
i'll join in & add to the confusion. hahah

i think the BEOB in ddinov's chart is pretty small, in the context of...
4730 isn't that minor a PPZ either and 4700 isn't too far away too. likely it'll dip to there, but not much visibility after. But if you got in @ the 50% retrace of that last candle (i'm like getting in on things @ a bargain. heh), the R:R is OK, and I suppose taking 1/2 off @ 4730 region might yield an modest 1:1 and the rest, just cross fingers and collect a little bit of pips from rate differentials while waiting. heh.

Similarly, I prefer the 1.5400 to 1.5500 region.... or a slide off from here first, then more PA... in the style similar to ryanmcd. =)
I have a USDSGD short on due to nice PA and asian equity has been really resilient. Usually that means the ccy will hold up decently as foreign money pours into it (cause US is beginning to price in a double dip and europe's like crap....but it could change or be reinforced depending on earnings season..) So there's an alright fundamental basis for a SGD appreciation.
I'd say I'm not THAT sure about EURAUD cause I don't understand the "story" behind it right now and... well, the technical picture isn't sufficiently compelling.

Quoting six gun
This week I noticed that AUD/CHF is very similar to the Dow.
It would be easy to mix them up.

There has to come a point when this will change, maybe totally reverse.
The view that there is a long term trend is fine to a point but the longer the trend has run the nearer it is to its end.
I think to presume these trends will continue comes from a wish rather than a hard fact.
I feel these trends have had their day.
I can't see positive data coming out on an economic front which is bound to hit commodity currencies.
Yeah. I'm glad you brought up that it could totally reverse out. It's happened a number of times in the past 2 years already. These themes can change rather quickly and one has to be sensitive enough to go, "eh? something's off" and find out what/where's changed or stay out. (and by the time it's quantifiable, or the media notices it, the trend is decently developed already) Trends do tend to continue... but right now it's on/off on/off on/off on/off.... which is pretty annoying cause the runs are not as "clean" as they were about 6months back (when my macro understanding wasn't as up to par/useful...)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #68,087
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:45am Jul 7, 2010 8:45am
Quoting jarroo
Oh . .are you talking about one of these PBs, cprao?

Although they were too small for me to take, they did give up some pips at obvious targets.
Jarroo, I apologize for not posing the chart..so many times that leads to confusion. Here is the set-up I am talking about.. I believe you are also talking about the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily -AUDUSD-07-06-2010 win.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #68,088
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:53am Jul 7, 2010 8:53am
There are only 2 x 12hr bars per day(24hrs) so not too sure what you mean by this.. Yes but when do you define when those bars open and close,
If you are looking at 8HR charts that means there are 8 different . . . etc. There are 3 x 8hr bars per day ?
6HR 6 different . . .

Oh yeah I get that, I may not have explained it adequately, what I was getting at is that . . . how will you know the proper time for the 12HR bars to open and close? Sure if you define say 2PM as the time for the 12HR bar to open and close, then there will be two 12HR bars in a day.

What I am getting at is that there is no definitive time for a 12 or 6HR close, or for a 4HR close. And that you there are 6hour bars closing every hour comprised of the data from the last 6 bars. . . . if you get me.

It's that lack of certainty and the fact that prevents me personally from using the aggregate bars.

But again do proceed with them if you like them, loads of people around here do.

this would give me 1 tick of confluence of the 2 i require to take the trade. If i was considering a short and the pin bar was green (close higher than the open) then i would need to find 2 alternative confluences instead to take the trade... Ah I understand now, I would still probably look for two location confluences despite the candle color if being picky though.

]I will do this all of the time, i know this will cause me to miss some trades but its better than using break of bar and getting immediate retracement which tends to happen more in continuations setups Sounds good.


I havent backtested but i will use this to start and after a sample size of 20 trades i'll analyse my results and adjust if necessary. Sounds like a plan.

THANKS JIG.... YOUR a FELLOW IRISHMAN I SEE !!!

No problem buddy, yes I am . What county are you originally from ? I see your living in Italy at the moment, well for some eh !?! . Although I have the typical pasty white Irish skin and get sunburnt easily so Galway in the Summertime is probably the most heat I could handle .

Jig
  • #68,089
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:08am Jul 7, 2010 9:08am
Quoting Shanetrader
Thanks JIG for your feedback really helps an alternative perspective, tried to respond to your points in red...
If you are looking at a 12HR chart that means there are 12 different times at which a 12HR bar can be completed. There are only 2 x 12hr bars per day(24hrs) so not too sure what you mean by this..

If you are looking at 8HR charts that means there are 8 different . . . etc. There are 3 x 8hr bars per day ?!
6HR 6 different . . .

[i]3.Confluence of fibonnacci...
Good Job on starting with a simple trading plan.
so far, I have not attempted to write a written trading plan. If I do I will also add Money mangement/position sizing component..
What is your risk level 2% or 3% or whatever ?
  • #68,090
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:18am Jul 7, 2010 9:18am
HI Jig,

As regards the bar closes, it does drive me nuts sometimes, as my charts look different to what other guys are posting here sometimes.
I use prorealtime.com(web based) for charting and my 4 hour bars shut at the following times (Irish time)... 5am,9am,1pm,5pm,9pm,1am, Are your close times the same? What time exactly does your new day bar start Irish time? Im from Meath originally, lived in Dublin for years... too hot here in Italy at the minute
  • #68,091
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:51am Jul 7, 2010 9:51am
Quoting Shanetrader
HI Jig,

As regards the bar closes, it does drive me nuts sometimes, as my charts look different to what other guys are posting here sometimes.
I use prorealtime.com(web based) for charting and my 4 hour bars shut at the following times (Irish time)... 5am,9am,1pm,5pm,9pm,1am, Are your close times the same? What time exactly does your new day bar start Irish time? Im from Meath originally, lived in Dublin for years... too hot here in Italy at the minute
Yeah it really bothered me at the start too,

I have four different feeds for the 4HR bars, each feed has a different timed close for the 4HR bars, so every hour I have a 4HR bar closing comprised of the data from the last four hours.

I have used prorealtime, it is pretty good in terms of web charting, however most people use MT4 around here, including myself. I would recommend you getting an MT4 demo and using that for charting.

I take the close of New York trading as my close for the day and bar for a new day, simply because I consider that to be when the trading day is over and a new one begins in Asia. Because the markets open in Asia first.

So I have a Daily bar that closes at 9PM Irish time.
  • #68,092
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:08am Jul 7, 2010 10:08am
Quoting jeurre
thanks, mike, steep pattern ==>>>>> no space, i guess ........
Hey J

Space doesn't play much of a roll in breakout patterns for me, as by the nature there should be no space. You are looking for the pattern to breakout and confirm at the former breakout area(that is if you wait for the pullback which I do about 90% of the time). I have just found steep patterns are not good patterns to trade breakouts off. Just something from years of personal testing.

Best
Mike
  • #68,093
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:13am Jul 7, 2010 10:13am
Anyone know where to get USD/EUR and GBP/EUR charts ?

Like I want all the normal major pairs, but just to be able to reverse them and have the counter currency as the base currency and vice versa . . .
  • #68,094
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:38am Jul 7, 2010 10:38am
thank you , mike, i noted it down, and will keep this in mind.

jeurre

Quoting mbqb11
Hey J

Space doesn't play much of a roll in breakout patterns for me, as by the nature there should be no space. You are looking for the pattern to breakout and confirm at the former breakout area(that is if you wait for the pullback which I do about 90% of the time). I have just found steep patterns are not good patterns to trade breakouts off. Just something from years of personal testing.

Best
Mike
  • #68,095
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:41am Jul 7, 2010 10:41am
excellent spot, bro, you win, i just noticed the setup worked out as you expected, congratulations !!

Quoting jarroo
Big BUOBs (and Big BEOBs) have proven to be a very successful PA setup. Again the key is location, confluences, etc. This one may still play out nicely even though, as you said, the location is not the best. I have found that due to its "not the best location" they tend to retrace deeper into the setup. We shall see.
  • #68,096
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:49am Jul 7, 2010 10:49am
Quoting supremeChaos
try these 2 links.
many have futures.

if i remember correctly... GCI , ForexUA/FOREX Ltd, XTB, MiG (old & new servers), KVB Kunlun/ForexStar, WHC, WSD, ActivTrades, LiteForex/SIG, Bulbrokers, GTL got the Dow.

others with Dow
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=62743
GMT broker with Dow
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=40477
SC,
thanks for the info.

Cheers
N
  • #68,097
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:13am Jul 7, 2010 11:13am
Hi Guys,
I'll apprecaite if someone can chip in on an potential issue i am facing while trying to use the J16 Trade Manager. I ahve been able to install and activiate it and its monitoring the trades as well. However, what it is not doing is closing the partial positions.

After the number of pips are reached it pops up a Order window which remains opens. I am not sure what is causing this ....can anyone guide me in this regard.

Thanks in advance.
  • #68,098
  • Jul 7, 2010 12:00pm Jul 7, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi Guys,
I'll apprecaite if someone can chip in on an potential issue i am facing while trying to use the J16 Trade Manager. I ahve been able to install and activiate it and its monitoring the trades as well. However, what it is not doing is closing the partial positions.

After the number of pips are reached it pops up a Order window which remains opens. I am not sure what is causing this ....can anyone guide me in this regard.

Thanks in advance.
while waiting for someone with EA experience

do you have EAs enabled, under Options - Expert Advisors - Allow live trading

Never used one but just a guess

Mike
  • #68,099
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:06pm Jul 7, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting mbqb11
while waiting for someone with EA experience

do you have EAs enabled, under Options - Expert Advisors - Allow live trading

Never used one but just a guess

Mike
Hi Mike,
Thanks for responding ...yes ... its enables in the option ... becuase if its not enabled then there is a X sign at the right corner of the screen.

Thanks
  • #68,100
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:36pm Jul 7, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting ddinnov
Morning all,

I saw quite a few AUD bars this morning on lots of pairs and settled on AUD/USD and EUR/AUD (short) as it has a decent sized bar and is what looks to me like a corrective move in a strong downtrend. Forgot to mention it's bounced of a VBRN 1.5000

AUD vs USD and AUD vs EUR. Not sure how that stacks up fundamentally.

Also took the USD/CAD BEOB, all on demo and all before checking the thread. I do like it when I see a nice set up (AUD/USD) and find that it's being talked about here - especially by seniors
How did those work out for you today?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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