Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 559 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #11,161
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:12am Jul 7, 2010 8:12am
Quoting captmilkdud
Work around it? Do you mean, for example, that all pinbars are not created equally? Like those that happen to occur in traffic, etc.?

Hi captmilkdud,


Head on the block time again !

I wasn't specifically meaning Pinbars.

What we are trying to do is work out why the market moves in a given direction.

Without trying to understand who the major market participants are and why they are buyers/sellers.
We have to grasp the idea that each participant has to eventually liquidate to close his open trade.

Now given that in excess of 90% of Foreign exchange participants are losers, then it must be correct to assume that the majority of market movement is caused by traders bailing out of losing positions.

What you now have to do is exploit this as best you can.

You just have to start looking at the market differently.

This particular thread is probably not the place to discuss this concept.

Regards,


BabeFX.
  • #11,162
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:13am Jul 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting BabeFX
Yes,
A large percentage of price action is caused by distress liquidation.
Start working around this principal & you could be on the way to successs.
Regards,
BabeFX
Yep, started on that path some months ago.

Quoting captmilkdud
Technical Analysis is worthless?
Obviously just my opinion, but in general yes, barring some S/R and the use of knowing what TA traders might do. But whatever works for you.
  • #11,163
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:24am Jul 7, 2010 8:24am
Quoting BabeFX
Head on the block time again !
LOL
Quoting BabeFX
I wasn't specifically meaning Pinbars.
Neither was I. Just an example of PA.
Quoting BabeFX
This particular thread is probably not the place to discuss this concept.
I agree. Where would a good place be? Have you ever thought about opening your own thread? I, for one, would be a regular to it. Your knowledge is something I have a lot of respect for.
  • #11,164
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:35am Jul 7, 2010 8:35am
Quoting eurotrash
Yep, started on that path some months ago.
How did you start on that path? It sounds very interesting.



Quoting eurotrash
Obviously just my opinion, but in general yes, barring some S/R and the use of knowing what TA traders might do. But whatever works for you.
I've heard (2nd hand) that Jacko considers almost all PA as just noise. I think he'd agree with your statement.
  • #11,165
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:19am Jul 7, 2010 9:19am
Quoting BabeFX
Hi captmilkdud,


Now given that in excess of 90% of Foreign exchange participants are losers, then it must be correct to assume that the majority of market movement is caused by traders bailing out of losing positions.


BabeFX.

While 90% of Foreign exchange participants may be losers ( assuming the 90% to be correct) I don't believe that this is the correct way to see this number. You are quoting the number as 90% of participants which would include retail (where most of the losers are), commercials and large institutions. Let's say that you are correct with 90% of retail traders being losers then on a weighted market basis this would still account for a minor amount of market movement.

Commercials and hedgers don't always think of their position as losing as it is more of an insurance policy to lock in current budgeted profits at a budgeted exchange rate. Interventionist policies by central banks such as Japan or the SNB also have other reasons outside of profit.

My point being that there are a whole host of reasons why the market moves and that to believe that it is correct to assume that the majority of market movement is caused by traders bailing out of positions may be a stretch of an assumption.
  • #11,166
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:50am Jul 7, 2010 9:50am
Quoting captmilkdud
How did you start on that path? It sounds very interesting.
Started with studying market microstructure and order flow. Very interesting indeed except can get quite dry. Darkstar is a gold mine. Read his old stuff (and a few extracts of his deleted posts which are still here... if you know how to find them). Some other members here have very informative posts too.
Quote
I've heard (2nd hand) that Jacko considers almost all PA as just noise. I think he'd agree with your statement.
Depends how one defines PA, and how one defines noise... personally I think the lower time frames can be the easiest to trade, but to someone trying to use FA or TA like trends or fibs it may be noise. But if you're looking for other things in the detailed PA then it may be informative. Just speaking theoretically here.
  • #11,167
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:51am Jul 7, 2010 11:51am
[quote=eurotrash;3857172]Started with studying market microstructure and order flow. Very interesting indeed except can get quite dry. Darkstar is a gold mine. Read his old stuff (and a few extracts of his deleted posts which are still here... if you know how to find them). Some other members here have very informative posts too.



Hi Folks.

Here is a sample post from Darkstar.

Originally Posted by Darkstar http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=260607#post260607)
As a professional stop hunter I can assure you that your decision to enter a stop loss order doesn't make the slightest difference in determining whether you will be smoked out of your trade or not. If you are a technical trader people like myself know EXACTLY where your stop is, mental or otherwise.

Failing to enter a physical stop order will only serve to tempt a trader to break his/her rules


Perhaps that makes it easier to explain why some of Jacko's trades get stopped out (never place your stop at or too near a round number).

Regards,


BabeFX
  • #11,168
  • Jul 7, 2010 12:13pm Jul 7, 2010 12:13pm
What a wealth of great stuff from Darkstar. I've been checking it all out since Eurotrash mentioned him.

The Structure of Forex Brokers http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484 is great! Reading it now.

Has anyone read his favorite book: Van Tharp - Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
  • #11,169
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:26am Jul 8, 2010 9:26am
I thought we were through all this garbage and getting back to trading. What a waste. Lots of stuff happening in the market and we're stuck on this again?

This is from Trade The News:
"Euro vs US Dollar Dealer chatter of Far East option barrier at 1.2700
**FYI: 1.2722 is the former late 2009 channel point (violated in May and correspond to current 72-day mvg avg)"

Any thoughts?
  • #11,170
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:29am Jul 8, 2010 9:29am
Quoting captmilkdud
I thought we were through all this garbage and getting back to trading. What a waste. Lots of stuff happening in the market and we're stuck on this again?

This is from Trade The News:
"Euro vs US Dollar Dealer chatter of Far East option barrier at 1.2700
**FYI: 1.2722 is the former late 2009 channel point (violated in May and correspond to current 72-day mvg avg)"

Any thoughts?
I still have my sell order at 1.2750 (which about 25 pips below the resistance if you use a weekly chart).
  • #11,171
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:46am Jul 8, 2010 9:46am
I'm still sitting on my hands too. I'm waiting for a breach of 1.2735 to start keeping a weather eye out.

Got a question. Are there any members of Currensee.com on here?
  • #11,172
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:44am Jul 8, 2010 11:44am
Some interesting stuff from Forex Live http://www.forexlive.com/

US real money still buying EUR/USD
Written by Jamie Coleman
July 8, 2010 at 15:31 GMT

They’ve been buying on dips and they’ve been buying on strength bit for the past several days US asset managers have been steadily buying.

It’s not clear if they are hedging or merely returning to European markets abandoned last spring at the worst of the sovereign debt crisis. Either way, they have been a steady presence that has helped keep EUR/USD underpinned.

EUR/USD trades at 1.2680 with some profit-taking seen as short-term accounts book profits as US equities lose steam. The S&P is nearly 9 points below earlier highs and are now up less than 2 points.
  • #11,173
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:07pm Jul 8, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting tradestar1
Why don't you give it a rest and just get back to trading?
OK, here is a trade for you buy 200 contracts EURUSD @ 1.2671
SL @ 1.2649
TP @ 1.2678
  • #11,174
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:16pm Jul 8, 2010 1:16pm
I bought the EU @ 1.2450, trailing it with a SL and have a trailing sell order in place to catch the return short..... so what?
  • #11,175
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:42pm Jul 8, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting wwwin
OK, here is a trade for you buy 200 contracts EURUSD @ 1.2671
SL @ 1.2649
TP @ 1.2678
Closed at 1.2677, that's a profit of $12,000 in 20 minutes
  • #11,176
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:31pm Jul 8, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting wwwin
Closed at 1.2677, that's a profit of $12,000 in 20 minutes
Nice trade! Crazy R:R though!

Do it again!
  • #11,177
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:59pm Jul 8, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting wwwin
Problem? You call $12,000 in 20 minutes a problem? I mean, the trade open/close was posted in real time, and it can be verified with the ff time stamp in the 1 min chart. So the open and closed cannot be questioned.

Now are you questioning the 200 contract size? Hmmm, sounds like a double standard to me. Good luck to you in your future trades, but posting hindsight trades means ZERO
Yes...very nice trade.

Ya should have held it. You be a gazillionaire by now!
  • #11,178
  • Jul 8, 2010 4:41pm Jul 8, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting jonpoler
Jacko has waited and waited and waited and waited and waited and then waited some more for a EUR retracement back to the long term trend line. It's just about there and where is Jacko? He had to take a break because of all the pressure he's under.

My question: what was Jacko really taking a break from? Sub-par trading??
Man, don't you know that good things come to those who wait, but only what the hustlers leave behind?

So you think is close to the trendline, well based on that I am taking this trade
Sell 200 contracts EURUSD @ 1,2694
SL 1.2713
TP 1.2677
  • #11,179
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:00pm Jul 8, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting wwwin
Man, don't you know that good things come to those who wait, but only what the hustlers leave behind?

So you think is close to the trendline, well based on that I am taking this trade
Sell 200 contracts EURUSD @ 1,2694
SL 1.2713
TP 1.2677
Unless I've got my times wrong... you win again

Perhaps you should be selling signals too!

Seriously though... WTF that hit your target and reversed within about two pips!!

Go on then... one more time; do it again! (I'm just kidding of course... not really looking for you to prove yourself! But I think you may have found the Holy Grail!)
  • #11,180
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:26pm Jul 8, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting DanUK
Unless I've got my times wrong... you win again

Perhaps you should be selling signals too!

Seriously though... WTF that hit your target and reversed within about two pips!!

Go on then... one more time; do it again! (I'm just kidding of course... not really looking for you to prove yourself! But I think you may have found the Holy Grail!)
Close but no cigar
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