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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #5,621
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:14pm Jul 6, 2010 11:14pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Yea, I'm just getting impatient and nervous about where I want to set the buy limit. Right on? 1 pip above? 2 pips above? Ahhh, driving me nuts on this one! Hold on...I need to punch my gut.... OK, no more emotions! Ready...set...trade!
Mine is right on DP
  • #5,622
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:15pm Jul 6, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting Saxon
Hey Marc. i got a limit on DP for AU, but stop is tight since EU made quick work of its DP
Are you setting right on DP?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,623
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:16pm Jul 6, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Are you setting right on DP?
Never mind...i'm in. Let's see how she plays!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,624
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:17pm Jul 6, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Never mind...i'm in. Let's see how she plays!
Oh, you alread went long? Still waiting for mine to take
EDIT: now I am in.
  • #5,625
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:25pm Jul 6, 2010 11:25pm
hey, aud.usd just broke the support. wht could be next man? even other correlated currencies are going south. i think AU will go for 61.8% fib retracement for yesterdays upside and will touch 8410
  • #5,626
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:25pm Jul 6, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting Saxon
Oh, you alread went long? Still waiting for mine to take
EDIT: now I am in.
going to see how this M30 settles. Hopefully above DP, otherwise I am out
  • #5,627
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:31pm Jul 6, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Saxon
Oh, you alread went long? Still waiting for mine to take
EDIT: now I am in.
Not liking it Saxon.... I'm out at B/E.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,628
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:32pm Jul 6, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting gta5555
hey, aud.usd just broke the support. wht could be next man? even other correlated currencies are going south. i think AU will go for 61.8% fib retracement for yesterdays upside and will touch 8410
Ya, watching EU to get a feel for AU moves.

EU is heading south. I wanted it to go higher so I could get a better price, but I will trade DS1 and Monthly R1 around 1.25
  • #5,629
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:33pm Jul 6, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Not liking it Saxon.... I'm out at B/E.
Ya, I am out at -1. Oh well, they usually work and you can have a tight SL on them so they are worth the risk. Let's scrub our AU charts and look for something else now.....
  • #5,630
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:35pm Jul 6, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting gta5555
hey, aud.usd just broke the support. wht could be next man? even other correlated currencies are going south. i think AU will go for 61.8% fib retracement for yesterdays upside and will touch 8410
Looking at the H4 chart PA is stuck between my two most important MA's...150 and 200...Look at the Stochs at the bottom. They are rolling over but you also need to keep in mind that PA should be above the pink 150ema right now because it is above the orange 200sma. But since the light pink 365sma is still in a downtrend we should continue lower. Tough situation. I don't have any longer term trades on for this pair right now. I just keep playing bounces off of MA's and S/R's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 193 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,631
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:40pm Jul 6, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, I am out at -1. Oh well, they usually work and you can have a tight SL on them so they are worth the risk. Let's scrub our AU charts and look for something else now.....
I'm calling it quits for the night but take a look at the Monthly PP area and 8444. 200sma on M15 is down there; 50sma on H1; 35sma on H2.

I'll be upset if PA goes up 20 pips or more now that we got out! I waited a long time for that entry.
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_2_200v.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,632
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:43pm Jul 6, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Looking at the H4 chart PA is stuck between my two most important MA's...150 and 200...Look at the Stochs at the bottom. They are rolling over but you also need to keep in mind that PA should be above the pink 150ema right now because it is above the orange 200sma. But since the light pink 365sma is still in a downtrend we should continue lower. Tough situation. I don't have any longer term trades on for this pair right now. I just keep playing bounces off of MA's and S/R's.
I might be in the minority but I still think this long is a valid trade. If you look at the daily, there is a double bottom formation and you can even see the bullish engulfing. This would mean, at the minimum, some short-term bullish movement.

Beside, the uptrend fib also lies there (Marc pointed it out - for me it is 0.618). So, looking at the chart, I think that long could still work.

(I still have the long there with my SL below 8439)
  • #5,633
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:43pm Jul 6, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Looking at the H4 chart PA is stuck between my two most important MA's...150 and 200...Look at the Stochs at the bottom. They are rolling over but you also need to keep in mind that PA should be above the pink 150ema right now because it is above the orange 200sma. But since the light pink 365sma is still in a downtrend we should continue lower. Tough situation. I don't have any longer term trades on for this pair right now. I just keep playing bounces off of MA's and S/R's.
My audusd chart...Note..SL @ BE after 50 pips t1 hits...OIL looks to plunge as well which drag down audusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_7_6_10.png Size: 126 KB
{Promotion Removed}
  • #5,634
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:47pm Jul 6, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I'm calling it quits for the night but take a look at the Monthly PP area and 8444. 200sma on M15 is down there; 50sma on H1; 35sma on H2.

I'll be upset if PA goes up 20 pips or more now that we got out! I waited a long time for that entry.
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_2_200v.gif
Haha. No Worries Man
  • #5,635
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:48pm Jul 6, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting aragorn123
I might be in the minority but I still think this long is a valid trade. If you look at the daily, there is a double bottom formation and you can even see the bullish engulfing. This would mean, at the minimum, some short-term bullish movement.

Beside, the uptrend fib also lies there (Marc pointed it out - for me it is 0.618). So, looking at the chart, I think that long could still work.

(I still have the long there with my SL below 8439)
I would have to agree for a number of technical reasons but mainly because I believe that the USD is going down and AUD is more economically sound... a safer place to put money.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,636
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:51pm Jul 6, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting Saxon
Haha. No Worries Man
Well, it was good for at least 10 at this point... time for bed. Good Luck on your trades and I'll see you tomorrow on Wacky Wednesday!
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_1_138.gifhttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_28_110.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #5,637
  • Jul 7, 2010 12:28am Jul 7, 2010 12:28am
Quoting MarcVUM
I would have to agree for a number of technical reasons but mainly because I believe that the USD is going down and AUD is more economically sound... a safer place to put money.
Actually, I saw a similar comment the other day and wanted to comment on it but slipped my mind. Though you might be right, I prefer not to think about 'funny mentals'.

Primary reason is that I just dont have enough information to say that Aussie is sound. I know US is on shaky footing because we are here and it kind of shows clearly. At the same time, there is little known about how the Aussie economy is actually doing (except for data releases but then bubbles can appear out of nowhere, right). Besides, China has largest chunk of US debt and I wouldnt think they will let USD tank like a rock.

Just my two cents. Always better to let charts do the talking rather than let some fundamental screw up the thought process.
  • #5,638
  • Jul 7, 2010 12:48am Jul 7, 2010 12:48am
Quoting aragorn123
Actually, I saw a similar comment the other day and wanted to comment on it but slipped my mind. Though you might be right, I prefer not to think about 'funny mentals'.

Primary reason is that I just dont have enough information to say that Aussie is sound. I know US is on shaky footing because we are here and it kind of shows clearly. At the same time, there is little known about how the Aussie economy is actually doing (except for data releases but then bubbles can appear out of nowhere, right). Besides, China has largest chunk of US debt and...
Hi there,
Let me tell you a few things about Australia in a nut shell since I live and do business here. Australia relaxed the laws for foreign investments about 2 years ago which helped its property market big times. It brought in billions of dollars from investors in china, HK and Japan. Being in the real estate industry, I know of many many houses which our agency sold at asking price to chinese investors but they have never been occupied or rented out after their purchase.
At the same time the world had an increased demand for resources which also helped employment locally here. Govt hand outs pushed up retail and hence a good picture was painted. This gave the govt a steady increase in GDP and CPI and hence interest rates needed to be jacked up to cool it off. We have had I think about 5 interest rate rises in the past 8 months or so. Just recently foreign investment laws were changed to further cool off property market. All these have just started to show their effect on the economy. I do not know of any business my friend and business circles that is doing well. Our vacancy rates for industrial and commercial properties are increasing every month. Industrial properties are dropping in price at a big rate. Auction clearance rates are dropping. Given the Micro and Macro econimies conditions now, I think the RBA will have to start taking rates back a bit to help businesses a bit. SO all in all, not all that rosey if you are living here....
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #5,639
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:13am Jul 7, 2010 1:13am
Very well put Trado you have got it right.If I can add a bit further the finishing of the new home owners handout has also had a marked effect as well plus the fact that the new home owners who had entered on the pump up are now starting to feel the heat.All it really did was give an artifical leg up but most important the government gave the banks a great get out of jail card which they needed at the time.My wife works at a fashion house and this time last year they were flat out what with the grants handed out etc but they have just put off 20 people and it is deathly quiet.Her best friend was employed in a top line furnishing store and has with many others just been made redundant. So all in all things are certainly not looking rosy on this side of the world and we are mean't to be "in a good situation"......not quite!
  • #5,640
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:49am Jul 7, 2010 1:49am
Going to hit the sac soon. Good trading today everyone
Don't forget, Spain/Germany game. Going to be awesome. A lot of my targets still hold on the charts I posted earlier since they where based on higher TF charts and are still a ways off. Good luck for anyone trading London and I will catch up with you in 4-5 hours.
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