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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,221
  • Jul 6, 2010 3:13pm Jul 6, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting MktScape
Custos .... i read somewhere that levels are being breached quite often lately. Whats you experience in this?
bend = breach
support and resistance levels are a range. the range is never exact. screentime and keeping notes helps you figure out how to deal with pivot bends.

anyways...got bored. took two mediocre trades. won't be surprised to get out on either. short eurgbp and long gbpcad, and considering a small-size eurusd long in a bit.
  • #7,222
  • Jul 6, 2010 3:52pm Jul 6, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting MktScape
Custos .... i read somewhere that levels are being breached quite often lately. Whats you experience in this?
hm, honestly I don't know if levels get breached now more often than before. Also depends how you define a level. Not everybody has the same levels on their screens. But I think, it is more important to know if price still reacts to a level or not.
Cause breaching or not, if price doesn't react to a level then we can't trade levels anymore. But if it breaches and returns to the level to be able to reverse position then it reacted to the level and we still can turn a profitable trade.

hope that makes sense
  • #7,223
  • Edited 4:26pm Jul 6, 2010 3:58pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting randomperson
bend = breach
support and resistance levels are a range. the range is never exact. screentime and keeping notes helps you figure out how to deal with pivot bends.

anyways...got bored. took two mediocre trades. won't be surprised to get out on either. short eurgbp and long gbpcad, and considering a small-size eurusd long in a bit.
Would you reverse your position if a level get breached and how would enter such trade? My GBPAUD worked out well.

For your EURGBP did you shorted at 0.83305?
  • #7,224
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:24pm Jul 6, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting Custos
hm, honestly I don't know if levels get breached now more often than before. Also depends how you define a level. Not everybody has the same levels on their screens. But I think, it is more important to know if price still reacts to a level or not.
Cause breaching or not, if price doesn't react to a level then we can't trade levels anymore. But if it breaches and returns to the level to be able to reverse position then it reacted to the level and we still can turn a profitable trade.

hope that makes sense
Yes does make sense. As long as levels are still causing the reaction then we are good.
  • #7,225
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:44pm Jul 6, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting MktScape
Would you reverse your position if a level get breached and how would enter such trade? My GBPAUD worked out well.

For your EURGBP did you shorted at 0.83305?
Yea I reverse if breaches a certain point. Thats why I mentioned screentime, because that part of the game is more an art than a science. Heck, I still mess up a trade once in a while.

Yea I nibbled at that price, but it really isn't moving. Will probably eject here. Feels like continuation consolidation.
Note to self: don't trade on the hottest day of the year
  • #7,226
  • Jul 6, 2010 9:07pm Jul 6, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting randomperson
Yea I reverse if breaches a certain point. Thats why I mentioned screentime, because that part of the game is more an art than a science. Heck, I still mess up a trade once in a while.

Yea I nibbled at that price, but it really isn't moving. Will probably eject here. Feels like continuation consolidation.
Note to self: don't trade on the hottest day of the year
yes ...hottest day can cause some big distraction .... especially when the electric transformer blows up and there is no electricity
  • #7,227
  • Jul 6, 2010 9:13pm Jul 6, 2010 9:13pm
This pair appears to be moving very slowly however in case it eventually goes up then i have attempted chalked out a potential zone which should respond.

Anyone else watching the same?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-H4.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #7,228
  • Jul 6, 2010 9:50pm Jul 6, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting MktScape
This pair appears to be moving very slowly however in case it eventually goes up then i have attempted chalked out a potential zone which should respond.

Anyone else watching the same?
I would expect it has near term rally...Here is my chart on usdchf...

Note..I already long around its today low already...I will look to add more position if it breakout on 1hr chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_7_6_10.png Size: 92 KB
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  • #7,229
  • Jul 6, 2010 10:59pm Jul 6, 2010 10:59pm
Quoting makefx
I would expect it has near term rally...Here is my chart on usdchf...

Note..I already long around its today low already...I will look to add more position if it breakout on 1hr chart
Hi,
can you add some comments as to how you reached you decision for a long here .... i can see divergence and price is currently at a weekly support, downward trendline has been broken. Is there any other factor that you have considered?

Ciao
  • #7,230
  • Jul 6, 2010 11:45pm Jul 6, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting MktScape
price ran into a quite strong monthly level and clearly struggled ...all the closes were below the resistance level. On the h1 chart it is making a 123 formation. I was thinking for a short on the retest of 0.84772 ?

anyone else on the same page?
here is my chart on audusd

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=244485
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  • #7,231
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:52am Jul 7, 2010 1:52am
Quoting MktScape
This pair appears to be moving very slowly however in case it eventually goes up then i have attempted chalked out a potential zone which should respond.

Anyone else watching the same?
yeah, your red line will definitely be a reaction point, but not so sure about your green ones. At least on that time-frame they don't seem to be totally clear. I would go on a lower tf to better pin-point the right level.
  • #7,232
  • Jul 7, 2010 2:33am Jul 7, 2010 2:33am
Quoting makefx
here is my chart on audusd

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=244485
Makefx - Are you trying to sell your signal service? I note that you have a site that requires some payments...

Also note you have been temp suspended - interesting
  • #7,233
  • Jul 7, 2010 2:46am Jul 7, 2010 2:46am
Hi All

short on AUD/USD - just joined the new down move at the open of the 1hour candle.

Lets see where it goes.

I am looking at areas / zones of S/R as precision to specific price is not always there.

Am also waiting to enter on:

GU - long if 1.5080 holds, it has been tested twice before;

Trade safe
  • #7,234
  • Jul 7, 2010 7:55am Jul 7, 2010 7:55am
Quoting Paulette
Hi All

short on AUD/USD - just joined the new down move at the open of the 1hour candle.

Lets see where it goes.

I am looking at areas / zones of S/R as precision to specific price is not always there.

Am also waiting to enter on:

GU - long if 1.5080 holds, it has been tested twice before;

Trade safe
Hello,
AUD-USD- Entered short and closed partially.

On GU ... this one is in a counter trend ...right now it trying to hold above the monthly support in the price zone of 1.5015. If it done then i'll look for long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #7,235
  • Jul 7, 2010 11:45am Jul 7, 2010 11:45am
Continuing the thought of last time that a good level should not only make price move away, but let you hop on board when breached.
I attached two charts (usdcad h1). Only pay attention to my orange lines. First chart you see it looks like a good level at first, but if you pay attention to my "x"s you can see that we would have lost quite a bit with that level.
So maybe there is a distinction between good and bad levels. And maybe it is important to "fit" the level sometimes, if historical results have been bad on that level.
Second chart shows the fit. Now the level is a range. Break below or above the range would make me reverse my position and now I can reverse all the time (hopefully I didn't miss anything) and would have had some minor losses (almost b/e) and some good winners.

So what do you guys think, is this just a crazy idea or what do you think of this?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad h1 7.7.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad h1 7.7.2010 good level.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,236
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:17pm Jul 7, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting Custos
Continuing the thought of last time that a good level should not only make price move away, but let you hop on board when breached.
I attached two charts (usdcad h1). Only pay attention to my orange lines. First chart you see it looks like a good level at first, but if you pay attention to my "x"s you can see that we would have lost quite a bit with that level.
So maybe there is a distinction between good and bad levels. And maybe it is important to "fit" the level sometimes, if historical results have been bad on that level.
Second chart shows...
Yea that's a tough one. Either would have shorted and reversed, or not taken the short due to the 2 reactions prior to the pivot.
Not quite sure what your saying about 'fitting'. Do you mean adjust the range after it is evident where the bulls/bears showed their hand, and then only look for a break? Or do you mean find the next less-obvious level that had still had reactions and marking that as the other side of the range?
  • #7,237
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:34pm Jul 7, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting Custos
Continuing the thought of last time that a good level should not only make price move away, but let you hop on board when breached.
I attached two charts (usdcad h1). Only pay attention to my orange lines. First chart you see it looks like a good level at first, but if you pay attention to my "x"s you can see that we would have lost quite a bit with that level.
So maybe there is a distinction between good and bad levels. And maybe it is important to "fit" the level sometimes, if historical results have been bad on that level.
Second chart shows...
Hi Custos - you are way ahead of me on these "fit" levels. For now I try to just go it with the trend and from there move with these levels.

I will definitely review this again tomorrow to make sure I get it...

Trade safe
P
  • #7,238
  • Jul 7, 2010 1:37pm Jul 7, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting MktScape
Hello,
AUD-USD- Entered short and closed partially.

On GU ... this one is in a counter trend ...right now it trying to hold above the monthly support in the price zone of 1.5015. If it done then i'll look for long.
Hi MktScape
GU - I took as a 1hour S/R trade, at first I thought DAMM, and the waited on the next candle and phew, she complied... Then I was away, she took me for a roller coaster ride, I set the trade to BE and decided - what will be will be. finally +100 pips, thank you very much.

Trade safe
P
  • #7,239
  • Jul 7, 2010 2:43pm Jul 7, 2010 2:43pm
Heres a couple of classic setups on the EU....170+ pips.....Just getting back to the basics on the original thead,,, 1 hour chart ...BPC....161 fib target..1.2718.. fib extensions from yesterdays hi/lo swings,,,,Partial profits already taken...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: classic setups.gif Size: 63 KB
  • #7,240
  • Jul 7, 2010 3:51pm Jul 7, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting randomperson
Yea that's a tough one. Either would have shorted and reversed, or not taken the short due to the 2 reactions prior to the pivot.
Not quite sure what your saying about 'fitting'. Do you mean adjust the range after it is evident where the bulls/bears showed their hand, and then only look for a break? Or do you mean find the next less-obvious level that had still had reactions and marking that as the other side of the range?
well, with fitting I just mean make the level fit my expectation. That it either tests the level or breaks and retests it from the other side. Like in the first example a lot of times it didn't test it from the other side, so I wanna take past data points to analyze where the level should exactly be located and how wide the range should be in order to be able to profit from the upcoming moves at this level.
And no, not only break, just saying, if it breaks again, where is it likely to retest.
And it doesn't have to be the next less obvious level, just trying to make a range out of this level so that at least in the past 80 to 90% of the moves would have been profitable or at least b/e trades.

does that make sense?
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