...
Good to see you here. Didn't know you followed Sir. Fti's teachings as well.
I never stop learning
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #17,301
- Jul 4, 2010 7:10am Jul 4, 2010 7:10am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
I never stop learning
- #17,302
- Jul 4, 2010 10:00am Jul 4, 2010 10:00am
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,047 Posts
I wrote for me "seventh sugar-coated pill"
My complete decoding "GannTunnel (Truth on the market)."
In total, there is 16 planes in the original artwork of the dust cover.
Four, in a downward spiral on each inside flap ... that is 8, so far.
eight more feature on the front cover, again, 7 of these appear in a diving attitude and a SOLE bi-plane in a climbing posture, within "the tunnel".
There would seem to be some conflict about the design of these aircraft, especially considering the origin of the plans.
Eight divisions of a proven price range was a common ploy by gann, just like the planes at different levels.
On the front cover, there also seems to be a veiled reference to a Fibo sequence with a certain number of the planes being flown in different zones
to accentuate the sequence:
plane above the tunnel - 1
planes in the tunnel - 1+2=3
planes grouped together,just below the tunnel - 2+3=5
planes in total below the tunnel - 3+5=8
= 1-3-5-8 Fibo seq.
Positioning of the planes shows them all diving, except for the bi-plane, which is inside the uptrending tunnel.
here is a suggestion to trade with the trend, otherwise become a casualty in this war.
even then, a ratio of 1 winner to 15 losers was apparent to Gann.
1.Geometry
Gann talks about the triangle, square, circle.
The triangle and square can be constructed in a circle and outside the circle.
The whole geometry is contained only in the construction of positions.
Aircraft moving in a triangular formation = "delta hedge technique '= triangle.
Square = "square".
Circle = Sequenced cycle.
2.Cycle
The book quoted the biblical cycles.Half, 3 and 7 etc. (capturing pilots sleeping in a tunnel for example 7 days).
One cycle can be day and night, (still talking about the flow, at night 10% of the volume for example)
Diurnal cycle, the distribution of time zones ("opening and closing of markets" Tokyo, London, NewYork, etc ...)
Weekly cycles ... etc.
Cycle consists of greed and fear.
Importantly = MARKETS IS CYCLICAL ... in each time frame.
3.MoneyManagement
From the book:
Enemy aircraft in the 25 000 aircraft.
Mother-ship is 10
Lured to the tunnel is used 1000 U.S. planes
400 U.S. aircraft are lost.
14 000 enemy aircraft lock in the tunnel ... etc.
I think that there is no need to explain further.
4.Psychology
Bible stories in the book are explained by the nature of man, the entire universe = the markets.
Fear and impatience is ignorance of the cyclical nature and ignorance of himself risk ... etc.
All "news" are included in the market before publication.
"If you study only the weakness of human nature and see how stupid they are mortals, will make you seem easy to understand the weakness of
human nature and go against the public and do the opposite of what people are doing. In other words, buy near the bottom of knowledge and sell
near the summit of knowledge, while other people will do exactly the opposite. Time spent studying the price, time and historic market movements,
your reward be bold."
The book is one big psychotherapy for trader ... but only if read the FTI
My complete decoding "GannTunnel (Truth on the market)."
In total, there is 16 planes in the original artwork of the dust cover.
Four, in a downward spiral on each inside flap ... that is 8, so far.
eight more feature on the front cover, again, 7 of these appear in a diving attitude and a SOLE bi-plane in a climbing posture, within "the tunnel".
There would seem to be some conflict about the design of these aircraft, especially considering the origin of the plans.
Eight divisions of a proven price range was a common ploy by gann, just like the planes at different levels.
On the front cover, there also seems to be a veiled reference to a Fibo sequence with a certain number of the planes being flown in different zones
to accentuate the sequence:
plane above the tunnel - 1
planes in the tunnel - 1+2=3
planes grouped together,just below the tunnel - 2+3=5
planes in total below the tunnel - 3+5=8
= 1-3-5-8 Fibo seq.
Positioning of the planes shows them all diving, except for the bi-plane, which is inside the uptrending tunnel.
here is a suggestion to trade with the trend, otherwise become a casualty in this war.
even then, a ratio of 1 winner to 15 losers was apparent to Gann.
1.Geometry
Gann talks about the triangle, square, circle.
The triangle and square can be constructed in a circle and outside the circle.
The whole geometry is contained only in the construction of positions.
Aircraft moving in a triangular formation = "delta hedge technique '= triangle.
Square = "square".
Circle = Sequenced cycle.
2.Cycle
The book quoted the biblical cycles.Half, 3 and 7 etc. (capturing pilots sleeping in a tunnel for example 7 days).
One cycle can be day and night, (still talking about the flow, at night 10% of the volume for example)
Diurnal cycle, the distribution of time zones ("opening and closing of markets" Tokyo, London, NewYork, etc ...)
Weekly cycles ... etc.
Cycle consists of greed and fear.
Importantly = MARKETS IS CYCLICAL ... in each time frame.
3.MoneyManagement
From the book:
Enemy aircraft in the 25 000 aircraft.
Mother-ship is 10
Lured to the tunnel is used 1000 U.S. planes
400 U.S. aircraft are lost.
14 000 enemy aircraft lock in the tunnel ... etc.
I think that there is no need to explain further.
4.Psychology
Bible stories in the book are explained by the nature of man, the entire universe = the markets.
Fear and impatience is ignorance of the cyclical nature and ignorance of himself risk ... etc.
All "news" are included in the market before publication.
"If you study only the weakness of human nature and see how stupid they are mortals, will make you seem easy to understand the weakness of
human nature and go against the public and do the opposite of what people are doing. In other words, buy near the bottom of knowledge and sell
near the summit of knowledge, while other people will do exactly the opposite. Time spent studying the price, time and historic market movements,
your reward be bold."
The book is one big psychotherapy for trader ... but only if read the FTI
- #17,304
- Edited 3:25am Jul 5, 2010 2:51am | Edited 3:25am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
- #17,307
- Jul 5, 2010 8:38pm Jul 5, 2010 8:38pm
Hi Friends,
found the following posting by MrGreen in an other thread.
Makes me smile and thinking ....[indent][...]
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it."[1][i]...
The advantage in a single word would present itself...
- #17,311
- Edited 2:33am Jul 6, 2010 2:14am | Edited 2:33am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
- #17,315
- Jul 6, 2010 4:21am Jul 6, 2010 4:21am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts
As you all know, I stalk this thread and post occasionally. What's happened to the market related discussions and posts? or am I the only one who is noticing that the thread has deviated away from markets to... other esoteric topics?
Yesterday was US holiday and the market responded accordingly. Still have a feeling that eur/usd is not yet ready to shift long. Closed my longs today at previous top (from 1.2225
). Until it flies past 1.28, I am still a $ bull.That doesn't mean I don't take long positions like the one from Thursday.
As far as I can tell, FTI has a bias aswell and he does read rumors and news but he does not act until he sees the facts in the market. From Reminiscenes of a Stock Operator book.. there was a case when somebody gave insider info that some big name is buying cotton (or something else, can't remember) and the guy instead of following the advice and buying, sold significant amount just to see how the market will take it and if there really is a big hand buying. When indeed there was, he bought heavily.
regards,
- #17,316
- Jul 6, 2010 4:43am Jul 6, 2010 4:43am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts
Aha. And?
- #17,317
- Jul 6, 2010 4:57am Jul 6, 2010 4:57am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
doesn't matter how you feel about yourself, you are wrong in either case, lol.
But when we know it about ourselves, it can be hint...
But bad new for me is, that i feel, that i know something, so it means that it is not true...
While I agree with you, why don't you start? I mean post something useful.
Rgs,
Baifu
p.s. my paste for the day, highlight is my own. I especially like "attack when victory is easy"
quote from post #2851:
Originally Posted by woopypooky
hi all, i want to ask some question here,
how to dance with the market and not predicting?
........
Hi woopypooky,
.........
As i do believe non of us have the crystal ball nor the time travel machine, it is impossible to predict the outcome of any positions. Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead".
So if you understand the mindset, your position must not give you confidence when right, nor despair when wrong, you have to manage it as per what is happening in the market now, and now keeps changing as time forwards, and yor strategies have to be adjusted to the changing market , only mindset holds firm. Therefore as per your example, if you see the 3 crows, you may want to initiate some position, however its what the market does after you're position that determines your forward strategies, not the crows any more, they are history. New developments will tell you what you must do to be profitable.
Probabilities won't make you money , only tells you odds. Its your strategic reaction to market conditions that can make you money and your ability to keep in rhythm.
On the flip, odds mostly will serve to harden your ability to feel and may make you candidates for pain threshold tests. Try to stay nimble, but focused on the dance. Remember, rigidity kills.
You can chose to make the price patterns predictive indications, or you can use them as hints for strategic reaction, it depends on your mindset.